Mikie2times

Likewise and thank you for not putting that in context of what I want.

Which criteria? I got Hurst as an option once in about 20 simulations. Mayfield never made it past Arizona.

Use the criteria I suggested and the best you will get is Rudolph or Jackson as QB options. It doesn’t give you the option of trading up.

Key question in this draft is can we acquire a viable QB outside the draft, if not, do we spend the expensive price to acquire one in the draft knowing we have so many holes or do we pass one more year and focus filling those areas? I think the latter could even put Tyrod back in play. It's incredible how many paths this team could take in the off-season.

I approached this as if we didn't sign Brown, Gaines, or land a viable DT. Sort of worst case scenario across all defensive positions. I think this time of year fans put together completely unrealistic mocks. Sure that has it's place. Personally, I would rather trade Top 10 and land either Rosen, Allen, or Mayfield. That said I boxed myself in because more often than not these unrealistic trades never happen. What you have left if they don't is no interior DL and No LB's. LB really standing out because how strong Carolina's groups was and how unlikely FA is do address that position. I think we will land Star Lotulelei and I hope we can make a play to get back Nigel. We will see. I think boxing it in has some value.

Obviously the needs change a lot with Free Agency. Sign Gaines and Brown (rather move on with Brown), land Star from Carolina and this becomes a different conversation. I still like one of those two LB’s a lot though and see us drafting a LB in the first 3 rounds.

I looked at interior OL, edge rusher, and obviously QB. No options presented themselves within the guidelines I stated and the mocks I used. I'm very high on Kirk and Washington at WR and we still need help in that area. We need to retool DT and LB and in a bad way. Those were the options I got at the highest levels in each mock.

lol, elaborate please

I like mocks but I prefer to use the simulation sites and some guidelines. This is a pretty neat site I saw linked last year: https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock For these 3 mocks I had to select a player that was within the top 10 best players available, the number to the right of the player is his best player available rankings on the overall boards for each of these mocks. Obviously you see a large range of how these simulators project players which is why I used 3 different versions. Curious to what other direction some of you might go with the same settings and Top 10 Best Overall Guidelines. Settings: Bleacher Report Mock, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: Rashaan Evans LB (1) 22: Malik Jefferson LB (2) 53: Christian Kirk WR (1) 56: Harrison Phillip DT (1) 95: RJ McIntosh DT (3) Settings: NFL Mock, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: James Washington WR (1) 22: Maurice Hurst DT (2) 53: Rashaan Evans LB (2) 56: Malik Jefferson LB (2) 95: Tarvarus McFadden CB (10) Settings: Fanspeak, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: Rashaan Evans LB (1) 22: Josh Jackson CB (7) 53: Malik Jefferson LB (1) 56: Taven Bryan DT (3) 95: James Washington WR (2)

I can apply a rational theory to the rushing information both from a high and low standpoint. I certainly can't validate that theory based on the sample size. My take? If I'm looking at a #1 overall pick/top 3 pick, I think you throw it out. Do that and you eliminate every successful QB on the list . Outside that you have a 100% bust rate on 18 QB's. 18 of 18 QB's drafted from 2000 on that weren't #1 overall selections did not start more than 64 games. Every QB from this list that did start 64 or more games was drafted 1st overall. Lamar Jackson is within the 18 of 18 trend and so is Mason Rudolph. Maybe Josh Rosen falls into it, he wouldn't scare me as much. Jackson and Rudolph scare the living crap out of me.

Under .5% Rushing Yards On the Bust data I had to make some guesses/omissions based on active players. All winning % information is included. That said, I omitted Hackenberg and made assumptions that Bradford would not hit 64 games while Goff will. Those could be pretty big assumptions. Depends on your outlook. Sam Bradford Brian Brohm John Beck Matt Leinart Jared Goff Eli Manning Patrick Ramsey Rex Grossman Brandon Weeden Carson Palmer Kyle Boller Christian Hackenberg Chad Henne Jimmy Clausen Over 17.5% Rushing QB's I assumed Kaep would not reach 64 games. That one is a real crap shoot. Cam Newton Vince Young Colin Kaepernick Michael Vick Tim Tebow Johnny Manziel Jake Locker Marques Tuiasosopo Drew Stanton Robert Griffin Dave, I have used the forum since the beginning and don't post as often as I once did, but I do remember you. Didn't mean to come off as such a prick in my responses. I didn't agree with how you were attacking the data in your other posts and please keep in mind part of the foundation of what I'm saying is analytics+draft status. The draft status portion being important because it places a grade on the player outside of just the stat line. Having said all this, everybody will have different views and again didn't mean to be overly critical toward you.

Rodgers is 5.79% not .57%, you do understand the difference between 5% and 1/2 of 1 % is a pretty big difference, Yes? I assume you do, so let's keep going. Rodgers is under 5,500 career passing yards, not 5,805. So Rodgers actually fits no bust profiles while you have him fitting in two. Rothlisberger 2.22%, again, nearly 4 times .50%, 10,829 passing yards (are you adding rushing and passing yards together? Where are you getting this stuff?) . Big Ben, like Rodgers, does not fit any of the bust profiles Matt Ryan, while extremely close at 9,300 yards passing and a .62% rushing, does not fit any of the bust profiles Phillip Rivers, similar to Ryan, 13,484 passing, .71% rushing, again, does not fit any of the bust profiles. Drew Brees. 11,792 passing, 7.6% rushing rate, again, does not fit any of the bust profile So based on your refined calculations, the study I provided would have indicted that every selection you made would have been a good decision outside of Peyton Manning (a #1 overall pick, Stafford (who actually has a run % north of 2% but does fall into the middle tier in passing production (another #1 OVR pick), and Geoff (Yet another #1 OVR pick). Then Tom Brady who doesn't even fit in the sample. You are right, when you look at success rate of only #1 overall picks it will always rival any analytics. No purpose in them at that level, the hit rate is almost a perfect 50/50 split. I never said this is gospel. If you disagree, so be it. Just don't be dumb about it. This is just dumb, on so many levels it's dumb. It's not accurate. If anything your samples validated the information. Then you used 3 #1 OVR selections and Tom Brady to dispute further? COME ON......

Brady is the biggest outlier in NFL history. If you chase examples like Tom Brady (as many teams have) you will find a list a mile long of failed scenarios. My point isn't to debate how valid this information is. It has some logic, it might have validity, it might not. Throwing out two names like Brain Brohm (who belongs in this sample in a negative way contrary to what you stated) or Tom Brady (who doesn't even fit in this sample) does nothing to provide any clarity to this discussion. I can do that. I have the information but would have to put it back into the proper buckets. It might be a bit, I have some high level business meetings today

Thank you, of note, Brain Brohm lives here QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%) Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph

Thank you all for the kind words. I will probably do some more of this type of work based on the feedback. No, I think that requires it's own analysis to validate that statement then maybe it's own analysis with just QB's who came out early. Mayfield is actually the guy I like the most based on the data. He's part of some good sample sets with neutral rushing yards and high career passing yards. Allen is also a guy I like based on the data. He's part of the strongest data sets but they aren't as large. He is likely to go very early. Only Aaron Rogers and Brock Osweiler made it out of the top 10 in the grouping of QB's drafted 1st or 2nd round under 5,500 yards. That's just rare to see happen, but logical. These guys have very little production, very high draft status, clearly the measurable's. I don't like Jackson, he is part of some very negative data sets. His % of rushing yards is over 30%. Only 2 players have been drafted 1st or 2nd round since 2000 with a higher number (Cam and Vince Young). Jackson could win some games, I just don't see him surpassing the bust credentials. More scared on Darnold, data sets with mid level passing production have almost a 80% bust rate on a large sample of picks. I also don't like the high turnover % at USC. Rudolph and Rosen get small downgrades as being part of some negative data sets with smaller samples, but they also belong to some positive ones. It can, where do you establish the cut offs? Does this matter? I believe production should matter in college. If a guy is 1st or 2nd round talent he should have been successful winning in college. That was my biggest argument for Watson last year. He torched Bama for over 400 yards B2B seasons and brought that program back to top 5 status. Production should count for something, if, and only if, scouts determine that production also comes with a high draft grade. You won't get a high grade unless you have the skills. I also think the running data could have some merit. It's logical to assume scrambling QB's create more air production because they can scramble. They buy time and create big plays. Will that work as well in the NFL? Likely not. This deludes all forms of production at the college level as far as determining it's ability to carry over. QB's with very poor rushing %'s get sacked a lot in college. Could that speak to issues with pocket awareness? Issues that will get compounded at the next level? Maybe. I don't know. To your point, it is interesting, maybe that's all it is. Mike White would fit into the high bust rate stat on Rushing yards (-268). He fits into the +9,300 category in passing production 11,262. Lauletta would be omitted from this list by not playing for an FBS school. I don't know how material this information is when looking at all picks. Maybe a future project. A couple other players I did Tyrod Taylor would have fallen in both major bust categories (Rushing% 23.8% and Career Passing Yards, Between 5,500 and 9,300). Russell Wilson would have fell in all positive categories, 10.8% rushing %/Neutral and 11,720 passing yards +9300.

I did a study I posted recently on the forum involving career college passing yards and career college rushing yards for QB's as a % of total yardage gained vs correlation to success. Part of the fault in that study was using subjective material to qualify success. This is the same study, just objective criteria. I included career winning % in games started for each subset of data Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%. Draft pick sample is from 2000 on QB's who had 17.5% or more total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 227 and 204 (52.7%) Bust Rate: 8 of 10 (80%) Qualifiers: Lamar Jackson QB's who had between .5% and 17.5% total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 1,362 and 1,289 (51.4%) Bust Rate: 12 of 26 (46.2%) Qualifiers: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%) Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph Analysis: This is one of the most dominant stat profiles in the study on who to avoid. It's a small sample, but you could see some logic behind the data. If you are running as a means to generate offense in college at a high rate you are also using that escape ability as a means to generate offense in the air through unconventional means. You will be less likely to be successful running the ball at the NFL level. Conversely at very low levels most QB's have negative career rushing yards in college. This could lend itself to poor pocket awareness. All and all the bust rate on outliers as it relates to yards gained on the ground is a staggering 18 of 23 (78%) with Rosen, Rudolph, and Jackson all being in outlier profiles. While the bust rate on non outlier profiles is just 46.2%, with prospects that include Mayfield, Allen, and Darnold. QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 1,025 and 877 (53.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 20 (50%) Qualifiers: Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 490 and 708 (40.9%) Bust Rate: 19 of 24 (79.2%) Qualifiers: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 410 and 304 (57.4%) Bust Rate: 1 of 5 (20%) Qualifiers: Josh Allen Analysis: Passing yards/production in the air does matter, especially when you partner it with NFL scouts giving you a high grade. Players that are above 9,300 yards in large part have started since day one in college, have been either consistently productive or excessively productive over 2-3 years. More likely to have stayed a full 4 years improving maturation. Rudolph, Mayfield, and Rosen fit this profile, with Mayfield having the highest career passing yardage numbers out of any 1st or 2nd round pick drafted since 2000. Once you go under 5,500 yards you see a clear trend emerge. Very high draft picks. These tend to be the freak type QB's that either explode on the scene or have measurable's off the charts. It's not common to see this occur but we likely will see Allen fall into this profile. Middle of the rode QB's on the production front have been awful since the 2000 draft, 40.9% winning % and nearly an 80% bust rate on 24 players. Think EJ/JP, they fit in this group. They have the measurable's but generally speaking they weren't able to translate that into elite production on the field (Jackson would be an exception to that statement). Scouts should be very cautious of this combination. So what does the passing data look like when you get out of elite draft pick status? Pretty much the same. ..... QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 500 and 416 (54.6%) Bust Rate: 7 of 12 (58.3%) QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 271 and 380 (41.6%) Bust Rate: 16 of 17 (94.1%) QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 107 and 60 (64.1%) Bust Rate: 1 of 2 (50%) Analysis: Middle level bust rate is nearly 100%, that number is spared thanks to Jay Cutler. Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them. I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.

Mafia SHOULD have a negative connotation. Murder, drugs, bullying, violence, etc. It was also a term first used for a small group of Bills fans doing the best MTV Jack$$ impression they could. It's understandable why some people might have issue being mixed in with either of these groups. That said since the Dalton TD it's sort of taken on a life of it's own. Mafia also gives people the feeling of family/deep bonds. National media ran with it and essentially separated the term from the Jack$$ days. I don't have an issue with it. Beats lovable losers, anything Nation, or all the other weak apathetic names we see for other fan bases. Bills fans weren't even on the map post Jim Kelly. Now we have a unique nickname that is used nationally in a positive context.

For some reason I just had a visual of somebody walking up to a half in the bag TT at the end of the bar and calling him an ugly girl. Then TT proceeds with a quick jab to the nose. Shady then walks into the bar.......I'll stop now.

One inch shouldn't make that big a difference, unless.... But seriously, I think the 6'0 vs 5'11 is like $100 vs $99.99. I agree, it's a psychological thing and will hurt him.

When is the term "great" applicable? Mahomes or Watson considered to be great NFL prospects? Pretty sure one of those guys becomes just that. Geoff was, only until he wasn't and now he is again..... Generally speaking if you go high on a QB you got somewhere around a 50/50 shot. I posted an article on TBD regarding this as well as another forum poster. Flip a coin or stay pat and play the same game we have for almost 20 years. I say flip the damn coin.

Watching Virginia's offense against Virginia Tech and Navy was one of the most painful experiences of my life. No. Dear god No.

I'm glad they named off nearly every QB in the draft I don't like

Extremes regarding total % of yards attributed to the ground are not favorable in either direction. At 1/2% or less of total yards attributed to rushing= 3 of 14 success rate, with 11 of the 14 having negative career rushing values. This could speak to a weakness in pocket awareness. 17.5% or higher= 2 of 10 success rate So if you narrowed this down to QB's outside of the extremes in rushing yards the breakout on passing production would be as follows. 9,300+ Success Rate: 10 of 14 In Between: 3 of 16 5,500 or less: 3 of 6 QB's in the next draft class with over 9,300 yards in passing who aren't extreme on rushing % include only Baker Mayfield. Last year only Watson and Mahomes fit that profile.

Just to look at the same list excluding top 10 picks 9,300+: 6 of 15 In Between: 1 of 20 (Cutler) 5,500 or less: 1 of 2 (Rodgers) Certainly not the end all, but the in between group has a startling bust rate. Even disagreement on which QB's qualify as good really doesn't change that. I think it's possible you can see a larger trends at work within this data. To surpass 9,300 yards you most likely started as a Freshman or you had massive production for a minimum of two seasons. At 5,500 or less you don't have a large body of work so if you are getting drafted in the top 2 rounds its off talent. In between seems to strike a perfect balance between those two descriptions. You have talent and enough production to start at least two years, but you haven't shown a highly productive career profile. Why that is should concern scouts.

I think it has to be subjective to account for the Tyrod effect on stats. Win % would be nice, just a lot of work. I’m asking myself would I be happy with a 1st or 2nd spent on any of the guys you mention? I wouldn’t. Hackenbergerdgdhd, could shift into unsure, but he needs to get on the field. He’s in the middle category in case you wondered.