Mikie2times

After seeing how little we added to the offense, unless we add some major production prior to start of the year we are poised to have one of the most talent depleted offenses in football. If you asked me my preference between AJ and Tyrod I would say AJ, but that's only if he has play makers around him. Tyrod can't take advantage of play makers as much AJ can, but the reality is, we have nobody outside of McCoy. AJ holds the ball like Taylor, high sack rates, little mobility, much more turnover prone. What Tyrod can do is generate yards on his own. He helped mask the offensive line issues. He didn't commit turnovers. I'm certainly not arguing at all that an upgrade was required over Taylor. I just just think with this current roster Taylor would have given us a better chance to win games.

Perfect fit for this system. Both sides of the ball are void of talent and have huge need. I see this kid getting substantial playing time. I want offense too, but if they don't like who they see on offense I would rather land a contributor on defense.

I have way too many high level business meetings lately. You could almost call them 2nd high level. Just short of 3rd which is almost as high as it can get.

I think I still have the data. I did that on my old work laptop and I'm pretty sure I copied it all over. If not it was quick to do, I can maybe do it over. Criteria was simple, 64 starts or more or an overwhelming probability of 64 starts defined if it was a bust or not. I used 64 starts because teams try and give these players chances, but it rarely extends past 3 years, generally a max of 4 and I felt defining bad was easier than defining good. While still subjective, I would say most people would feel a high round QB not making 64 starts or more as a fail. If they make more than 64 it doesn't necessarily mean it's a huge win either, but few even make it that far along, so some success is likely at that point. Some gaps in data is how I tiered it. You could adjust the thresholds a decent amount and get similar data. I get what your saying though.

I hope it’s not a site violation to copy and paste previous posts. I did the study below about two weeks after the season ended. I hated the Allen pick. He has so many traditional measures against him. I could go on for days on why I don’t like him, but I’m a Bills fan and I don’t want to feel this way when I know I can create a different narrative for myself. Why not choose positive vs negative when certain outcome doesn’t exist? That’s where I’m at. This will become a series of data based narratives that support Allen as a player. They are meant for my own therapy and I think others out there will appreciate it. The one below matters to me because it was at a point when I didn’t have a horse in the race. Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%. Draft pick sample is from 2000 on QB's who had 17.5% or more total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 227 and 204 (52.7%) Bust Rate: 8 of 10 (80%) Qualifiers: Lamar Jackson QB's who had between .5% and 17.5% total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 1,362 and 1,289 (51.4%) Bust Rate: 12 of 26 (46.2%) Qualifiers: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%) Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph Analysis: This is one of the most dominant stat profiles in the study on who to avoid. It's a small sample, but you could see some logic behind the data. If you are running as a means to generate offense in college at a high rate you are also using that escape ability as a means to generate offense in the air through unconventional means. You will be less likely to be successful running the ball at the NFL level. Conversely at very low levels most QB's have negative career rushing yards in college. This could lend itself to poor pocket awareness. All and all the bust rate on outliers as it relates to yards gained on the ground is a staggering 18 of 23 (78%) with Rosen, Rudolph, and Jackson all being in outlier profiles. While the bust rate on non outlier profiles is just 46.2%, with prospects that include Mayfield, Allen, and Darnold. QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games in NFL: 1,025 and 877 (53.9%) Bust Rate: 10 of 20 (50%) Qualifiers: Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 490 and 708 (40.9%) Bust Rate: 19 of 24 (79.2%) Qualifiers: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 410 and 304 (57.4%) Bust Rate: 1 of 5 (20%) Qualifiers: Josh Allen Analysis: Passing yards/production in the air does matter, especially when you partner it with NFL scouts giving you a high grade. Players that are above 9,300 yards in large part have started since day one in college, have been either consistently productive or excessively productive over 2-3 years. More likely to have stayed a full 4 years improving maturation. Rudolph, Mayfield, and Rosen fit this profile, with Mayfield having the highest career passing yardage numbers out of any 1st or 2nd round pick drafted since 2000. Once you go under 5,500 yards you see a clear trend emerge. Very high draft picks. These tend to be the freak type QB's that either explode on the scene or have measurable's off the charts. It's not common to see this occur but we likely will see Allen fall into this profile. Middle of the rode QB's on the production front have been awful since the 2000 draft, 40.9% winning % and nearly an 80% bust rate on 24 players. Think EJ/JP, they fit in this group. They have the measurable's but generally speaking they weren't able to translate that into elite production on the field (Jackson would be an exception to that statement). Scouts should be very cautious of this combination. So what does the passing data look like when you get out of elite draft pick status? Pretty much the same. ..... QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games 500 and 416 (54.6%) Bust Rate: 7 of 12 (58.3%) QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round Record starting Games: 271 and 380 (41.6%) Bust Rate: 16 of 17 (94.1%) QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in 1st or 2nd round Record Starting Games: 107 and 60 (64.1%) Bust Rate: 1 of 2 (50%) Analysis: Middle level bust rate is nearly 100%, that number is spared thanks to Jay Cutler. Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them. I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.

My boss lets me make my own decisions. I also understand it’s not in my best interest to go against my boss. So say he was somewhat neutral as to Rosen or Allen. If Terry was all about Allen, well, there you go.

No, I do not “trust the process” on this pick. Beane could be a masterful GM in every area, that doesn’t mean crap regarding his ability to land a good QB. If you read his excerpt on what he likes in a QB from last year...big, strong arm, durable. Basically Cam Newton 2.0. Then you look at the comments by ESPN, Terry fell in love with Allen. So Allen matched what Beane likes based on what? Cam? A freak show athlete on all levels. Based on when every NFL GM likes? Yet with this kid they didn’t like it enough to take him.... You didn’t win this time Beane. You outsmarted yourself aided with ownership which made it all easy. Maybe even forgiveable when he busts. Did you watch his feet on any of the film? Who is the QB guru that will keep him from bailing in the pocket when he has a pocket? I hope we lock this thread and look back at it in three years and myself and many others have to eat it. I don’t see it happening. If Rosen pans out and Allen doesn’t it should cost Beane his job.

Rosen!!!!

Mark it down. With the first overall pick in the NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select Josh Allen, QB out of Wyoming. Not getting Big Ben really bothered me when that occurred as well. I was certain he was our guy, likely was. If so, why don’t you move up? As a result Buffalo’s women were more safe. But long playoff drought.

Robert Woods is “Fu$&&$& Crazy”

On the opposite side of the spectrum. How the hell did we get the 23rd pick for Peerless Price? ?

You can't make hiring and firing decisions based on protected class. For example I can't fire an FMLA employee for never being at work when they are using FMLA (so long as the FMLA use is within guidelines). FMLA protects the absenteeism. I think where people get confused is protected class/consistency in internal processes. Seattle did nothing wrong and can choose as a company not to hire employees who kneel during the national anthem. They do get exposure however when they don't apply that same standard to all employees. That exposure isn't direct but it's exposure most employers like to avoid. For example if you hired a QB who refused to stand during the national anthem now CK could file a lawsuit stating he wasn't hired based on the color of his skin. That would be a protected class issue. Now it would be up to the employer to prove that not hiring him had nothing to do with the lawsuits allegations (skin color). They would also be in a bit of a pinch trying to justify kneeling as cause for not hiring him because they hired another person who they did not apply that same standard with. These are the murky areas companies don't like to find themselves in. It can be hard for the employer to prove why exceptions were made for one and not the other. Employers hate exceptions. They like to treat everybody the same because it eliminates peoples ability to play the protected class card as much as possible. It still doesn't eliminate it. If it's a bigger company they will likely just settle with the employee even if the accusation is baseless. It's just not worth the legal fees. I've seen it happen multiple times where an employee sued my employer for protected class termination, had zero leg to stand on, and we just settled because it wasn't worth dealing with.

My response to my own question. It depends on the performance of the team (duh). That said it's unlikely the performance of the team ascends if we miss. It's likely we give up a good degree of assets in order to trade up. We gave up a good number of assets in order to get in position to trade up. We can talk about that in more granular fashion now. How Sammy was out the door, we had a replacement for Glenn, what great moves we made now to get something instead of nothing. Three years from now people won't be talking in those terms. They will just be saying we lost x/y/z players and draft picks for a bust QB. If the QB position is neutral or worse I would think it's game over. Throw in potential good play from Watson or Mahomes, players we could of had last year. Again people won't be saying well Tre White was a great pick. It will just be more gas on the can't find a QB fire. As for people that have changed the question toward us passing on QB being just as significant? That's really hard to say. At that point I still think it would depend on resolution to the QB issues, but in such a scenario you would think we would have one hell of a roster with how many picks we would spend on positional players and cap space in future years. So resolution to the QB issue might now be as a clear, but perhaps we have a very competitive team. I don't think our regime is ruled by the question posed in this thread, but how can't that question have some influence? These are still human beings that want to do human being things like maintain employment. We won't get fleeced for a trade up. As we keep hearing, if a deal is to be made we will be open to such a deal, but we won't get fleeced just because we need a franchise QB and have a lot of collateral.

What do you mean shown very little? I never stated that. I don’t have a horse in this race easier as far as thought process. I just thought it was interesting conversation.

A miss would mostly likely leave us out of the playoffs for a few years as the QB is given every opportunity. It seems crazy to think a GM/HC who have shown very positive things early could just as easily be on the hot seat two or three years from now with a miss. Overblowing it or do you agree?

I think reasons exist why less NFL QB's are black. I know these reasons have nothing to do with the color of a persons skin, nor can they be explained with one theory. It's more likely a result of multiple factors.

That could be true, I was basing that more on the pre combine stuff. I didn't read that yet so I didn't factor it.

Oh I know, I try an find ones that seem realistic.

Jackson was gone by then, I could have taken Rudolph

I did two separate mocks on Fan Speak. Settings I used were Fanspeak Mock, Fanspeak Needs, Difficult. This does not allow for trades. My thoughts entering this was where do I look at Jackson and Allen if at all. I decided I would consider Jackson at #22 but not Allen at all. I don't like either. College QB's with the amount of rush yards Jackson had in college have a huge bust rate. Only Michael Vick and Cam Newton have really worked out as comparable players to Jackson in rush yards in college, then a long list of busts. Allen seems afraid to just step up and that scares the crap out of me. His line was bad, but he doesn't step up when he has time. Bails very early. I just don't want him. Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen all were selected before I could take them. Here are my drafts with the settings I mentioned above as well as a link to the site: https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/ Draft 1 Round 1 #12: LB Tremain Edmunds: With only Jackson and Allen left to choose from, Bills go best player available at a need position. Round 1 #22: DT Maurice Hurst: Bills decide to pass on Allen landing a very disruptive pass rushing interior lineman. Round 2 #21: WR Christian Kirk: Thick, quick, great hands. Bills go best WR left on the board Round 2: #24: CB M.J. Stewart: Bills love his flexibility on defense, great run defender, physical, can play S or CB, some people comp him to Micah Hyde Round 3: # 1: C/G Billy Price: Torn Pec makes this former first rounder slide. Bills get a steal with a guy that can play C or G. Round 3: #32: DE Rasheem Green: Bills love Greens pass rushing ability. 10 sack year in 2017, some question run support, with Shaq it gives the Bills a great rotation Draft 2 Round 1 #12: DE/EDGE Harold Landry: With only Jackson and Allen left to choose from, Bills catch a break and have one of the drafts best pass rushers fall. Some comps have him with Vic Beasley. Imposing pass rusher that will mature to be a 10 sack a year guy. Round 1 #22: DT Maurice Hurst: Bills decide to pass on Allen landing a very disruptive pass rushing interior lineman. Round 2 #21: WR Christian Kirk: Thick, quick, great hands. Bills go best WR left on the board Round 2 #24: CB M.J. Stewart: Bills love his flexibility on defense, great run defender, physical, can play S or CB, some people comp him to Micah Hyde Round 3 #1: QB Kyle Lauletta: Bills pass on the first wave of QB's and eventually land a guy they like Round 3 #32: LB Leighton Vander Esch: Bills continue to fortify the defense with a guy that could go as early as round 2. I don't think either of these drafts gets the fan base going, we all want the franchise guy. I think the Bills trust AJ enough to avoid getting fleeced in the franchise QB war. If the right guy doesn't fall we could be out of the market.

Bust rate doesn't change if you trade up. 30-35% is about the likelihood of getting the right guy in the top 10. Multiple studies have been posted on this. Trading up doesn't reduce or increase the likelihood of finding a hit.

I would prefer a player wanting to know the deepest meaning behind every action so he could apply that learning to the highest level vs a player that just does what he's told. The former personalty can rub people wrong. It's questioning. It's not yes sir. If it doesn't make sense it gets questioned. That's how this guys is and it rubs some coaches wrong. I don't care, I like it.

Opportunistic, bend but don't break

Gaines is gone. His compensatory pick value will be 3rd rounder in 2019 so long as we keep the rest of our comp book balanced. Davis was such a great signing for multiple reasons. Potential boom player AND he didn't count against the comp formula. This is a very smart front office.

Good decision by the front office. I don't see it as more at this time. I'm sure we will add another corner, I don't expect that to be a 1st rounder. Davis is a nice layer in that equation, has boom potential but we need a few more layers for depth and the potential for bust.