Mikie2times

Easily more IMO, but not more than what Baltimore paid, which to your point was lunacy. I look at OBJ as having more injury concerns and generally more uncertainty than Hopkins. Hopkins probably even has the higher ceiling if it's measured in one year-two years. Not everybody has the same school of thought on Hopkins, but i see him as a legit number one over the next year or two and then a stronger decline. But if that is what it is, well worth it.

One of the all time greats, magic voice

Don't hurt yourself with some of these advanced stats, you might have to reconcile things like the second worst EPA of the season vs the Dolphins or the worse completion % out of any of the teams you listed. Bottom 20 actually. You know, what we sustain drives with..... best keep all this data to the regular season as well. We wouldn't want to deep dive into how the chuck and duck does in the playoffs. That is unless you want to stick with 2021, which you have before. She will end up being like your first girlfriend when you speak of her at the rate we are going.

You act as if chucking the ball 50 yards each play is some sort of recipe for success? It's why our offense sucked for the back 8 (suck as in playing like a video game, 3 point shots or nothing (great analogy by another poster), more turnovers + more sacks from slower developing plays. No rhythm) You're right, only Allen could have won us the game WE PLAYED. Maybe you should ask yourself if it makes sense to be playing a high risk / reward offense against the Skyler Dorsal Fins. We had the game won when we walked out, until we almost handed it over losing our lead in the 2nd half. The medicine that is leave it to Josh to do some amazingly crazy things isn't the cure, it's the problem.

not better, look a few posts down in that thread and it will get into air yards per attempt

Play college ball at Duke and eventually become the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills 😂

The point is it gives you a very clear indicator of what the offense is trying to do. A west coast offense won’t have many air yards, which impacts how you game plan against them. Buffalo has been very different and much worse when the air yards average is high (which shows Alan isn’t taking underneath throws)

If isolating one play situation was enough to discredit every stat we would have no stats. Exceptionally horrible way to discredit something

It’s measured consistently on pro football reference. A person isn’t required to determine anything. They just use the play by play log. It’s as good a stat as anything else depending on what you want to know

If you look at Air Yards per attempt Josh’s 2021 year was the lowest total he ever posted. 2022 being much more like 2019. I think this is the key for him and Daboll did an excellent job coaching Josh on this. Josh is a different player when he takes the check downs. Our offense becomes consistent. He avoids turnovers. We can still air it out as we did in 2021 late in the year, but we built the foundation late in the year around shorter completions, which then more naturally opened up the longer stuff. 2022 it was just all air it out and it plays right into Josh’s weakness. I recall one poster mentioning how Miami was basically begging us to throw deep in the playoff game. Which was true. What that resulted in was a ton of offensive output, but a lot of longer developing plays and turnover risk. If you’re any DC in the NFL right now why wouldn’t you beg Buffalo to go over the top?

Your examples are correct regarding payouts. But any team that is + money still has “vig” it’s just built into the price. As an example a team that is +100 (bet 100 win 100) will actually have a real probability of between +105 or +110 (you can convert this into a % outcome) 48% or so would be an example. A team with a 48% projected outcome will be priced at around +100. Which means if the outcome is half the time exactly, you still lose money. That is the vig. It’s the price you pay above and beyond the projected true odds and it always occurs ok both sides. Just more transparent on a favorite. 👍

I don’t need excuses. Just look at the average QB rating if the different eras

+ lines always have Juice, you're paying the tax in reduction of the total payout, not in an additional cost to place the wager to win even money a normal line would be something like -110 vs +100, if the + team had no juice, they would be +110 or +105 depending on how much vig you pay.

The average QB rating in 1970 = 75.6 1980 = 73.7 1990 = 77.3 2000= 78.1 2010 = 84.1 2020 = 93.6 As an example, Peyton had a 121.1 rating in 2004. The average rating in 2004 82.8, so he was 38.3 points above the average. He was also clocking 90's or higher after basically his first year. I love Josh, but trying to compare his raw stats to Peyton is silly.

So the vig is what 50 cents on that line in that price range? So the actual probability is +600 or 14.29% or if you want a call the vig a buck, +550 at 15.38%. The book wants to split the take, sure, but if that number doesn't match the actual probability once you account for the vig the book would be exposed. Vegas doesn't think KC has much better of a 15% probability to win it all. If you think they have a 20% probability I would place your wager.

Odds are just an implied probability on an outcome. So yes, they're basically the same thing. Any odd range can be entered into an implied probability calculator. If the outcome occurs more than the implied probability of the odds you will make money long term. If it doesn't you will lose money long term. Here is a calculator https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/implied-probability/ The Chiefs are currently +650 which is an implied probability of 13.33%.

The thread is about perceptions clouding judgement. The narrative doesn't exist because of 2021. It's made our fanbase think that we have a good playoff offense. It is inconsistent at best. Just reading your post is a perfect microcosm of that. Different coaches the other years (same is true for 2022) different Josh (same is true for 2022). Further, in what way has Josh shown he is better than 2020 or even 2019? Why do you think you saw "playoff Josh" in 2021 more than what you saw the rest of the years? We have no consistency on offense with the style of play we showed. It's been a running theme in the playoffs for all but one year. People are so butt hurt over 13 seconds and enamored with how bad the defense has been, if they actually watched what happened they would see pretty average offensive performances in all but one year. Bad enough to cost us the game. They only didn't see that because the defense overshadowed it.

Todd Collins

Downright sexy analogy

I think the offensive played fine in the Chargers game. Another defensively challenged game. We got the late stop, but the Chargers set playoff records for offensive output in a loss. This thread isn’t to say one vs the other. It’s more about one overshadowing the other. The defensive can all of a sudden hold teams in the low 20’s and that won’t be enough if history is any indication. That’s a problem. New year. But I don’t think we can just say as a fan base, offense good, defense bad. It’s not that simple.

Our entire fan base holds its hat on 2021 and I’m cherry picking?

I respect the post, I just don’t like comparing us to the Bengals all that much. I sort of got pulled in that direction to defend the thread. We are built like KC in just about every way outside of defensive philosophy. The Bengals are just the perfect image of consistent. They keep every playoff game close (besides ours). Usually scoring in the 20’s, not more, usually allowing around the same. Burrow doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is always coming up with a timely play or drive. We are so opposite of this. All feast or famine on both sides of the ball.

Your understanding of scoring averages and how football games are won and lost needs some work. You don't win games based on averages, not unless those averages are created with consistency. Who cares if we have higher high's if we have lower low's and the format is single elimination? I did you a favor and bolded the losses. When the Chiefs, Bills, or KC has scored 20 or less in the playoffs the record is 1-6. KC and the Chiefs have as many combined as we do alone and two of three for those came in the Super Bowl. What is the likelihood we will score 20 or less next year given the data you're looking at? Bengals has scored 24, 27, 20, 26, 19, 27, 20 Bills has scored 34, 10, 47, 36, 27, 17, 24, 19 KC has scored 51, 35, 31, 22, 38, 9, 42, 42, 24, 27, 23, 28

Based on EPA that takes into account things like completion % and turnovers, not just yards, that was our second worst offensive game all year. Given our turnovers allowed a Skyler Thompson led Dolphins team to be winning in the 2nd half, I wouldn't exactly applaud this performance. Josh didn't take anything underneath. Efficiency in moving the ball was non existent. It was backyard football and nearly got us beat by an inferior opponent. We saw what happened with a a more worthy team a week later.

We have posted under 20 points 3 times in the playoffs since 2019 in 3 separate years. It could easily be 4 times if it wasn’t for garbage TD’s vs KC in 2020. We also could have had 10 points two separate years if it wasn’t for a pick 6. KC has put up under 20 one time in that span vs the Bucs and the Bengals, who play a vastly different style than we do, have done it once. The last team to win a Super Bowl and do it while scoring less than 20 points in the playoffs during that run was in 2018.