Mikie2times

Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.

Thanks Tuesday, I'm a huge fan of DVOA's prognostication power and thought the last two years early in the season we were a bit overrated. Then both years we made some major progress in DVOA as the season progressed. So even more DVOA plot twists, we have a pattern of improving as the season progresses I certainly expect some regression, the KC game will be a really big test, but the bottom line with this team, if you are a bottom 20 offense you will not beat us. They say "Any given Sunday" but not this team. Eventually we will get to 20 and lower performing offenses simply won't.

Stars biggest role in the defense to take out two blockers and free our LB's. Won't get you many PFF points or stats but he is the best on the team at doing this and it's clearly helped our LB's make plays.

Really good post, thank you

1- Ertz- probably (may take another thread)

I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.

I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have. The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019. Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it. Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020. As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming. After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way. Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at.

You forgot Bill Parcells, I don't think Simms is getting in. Also, I don't give Gibbs or Gruden additional credit based on this. Gruden was an offensive coach that happened to get one of the best defenses of all time and the Redskins just had an absolutely dominate squad in the 80's an early 90's. I agree with the poster that said BB, good coach, bad GM. He has been a very bad GM. He does a good job acquiring picks, but so many misses and very poor FA activity/trades. The conclusion of Brady's career was also dreadful in the way it was handled . Super Bowl windows still existed in New England if they would have gotten him more talent.

Josh is unconscious right now. One of the better first half's in Bills history at the QB position. Thrilled to see, will certainly give him his due after this one.

6"7, 265 and attacks the ball in the air. Catches everything with his hands and covers a massive catch radius with his height and arm length. Above average speed and agility for a player his size. I doubt we get in a position to draft him, but wow. The guy is a more athletic version on Antonio Gates (he played basketball in the past as well). I wasn't aware of him until I watched the the game Friday night and I came away with my jaw on the floor. I thought Kyle Pitts was the second coming, but Wood will give him a run for his money. I don't think he gets slotted like Pitts. Maybe we have a shot. Really enjoyed watching his game.

I know how folks on the board like them stories from the high school days. I had a Levi moment. I was very amped up. It was a big spot in the game. Laid a TE out and did exactly what Wallace did. I don't blame him. It's a learning experiences. I was lucky not to get called, probably should have. I was absolutely showing poor sportsmanship, but again. just was caught in the moment. That's all it was. He will learn from it and it won't happen again.

I think it's been an element to his hesitancy. Not all of it, but a part of it. I also don't think defenses are rushing him as uncontrolled as they have in the past.

Really great post, only slightly pausing as I can't find the stats myself. Curious how they get measured, does it involves just passing plays or also running plays? I would think he would get a slight edge against non rotational players either way. Having said this, he could have had 3-4 sacks against Miami. I feel horrible for the dude. He was brutalizing them and as your stat reference it appeared like his jump was lighting. I feel so bad because it wasn't like he didn't get home in time. I mean he knocked out Tua basically at the apex of his drop. Was getting home lighting quick. We have been so impressed with Groot. As we should be. AJ can also be a special player. I think as the season elapses we will see less from Addison and likely even Hughes. These young guys can ball.

I just skimmed the DL rush to be honest, then assumed he wouldn't have anywhere to go with 7 dropping. Bad assumption apparently. *oh god a watched it. well, now I feel even worse than I did before. thank you.

I like YPA as the best single/simple metric, DVOA as more of a complex one. I know we will see some form of regression soon. These numbers are just too good. As you said, .5 ahead of #2 in YPA is historically good levels if that holds. I don't think any regression will be too deep. I do think this lands as a Top 3 unit by years end. We will really know where we stand after October 18th playing KC and the Titans B2B.

Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He was the best in the NFL against the blitz and had one of the best seasons in NFL history facing the Blitz. He was in the top 5 most frequently blitzed QB's in both 2019 and 2020. Allen has faced the blitz on 13.1% of his attempts so far this season. Which will end up making him the least blitzed QB in the NFL this year if the trend continues. For context, last season he was blitzed on 42.7% of his attempts. While getting blitzed (defined as 5 or more rushers) nearly a 1/3rd of the frequency as last year, his pressure rate is actually higher in 2021, 30.8% vs 2020, 21.9% on his attempts. So ya, that's pretty telling. I mean teams are getting to him with more consistency by using less players. I think some of this is a lack of decisiveness in his reads (because his passing lanes are flooded) and certainly I'm not absolving offensive line play . Just to summarize if teams aren't blitzing, then they are at minimum dropping 7 in coverage. Again, I don't see how the image I painted is far off from what I described, what the stats are saying. I'm pretty sure the best way to beat a 4 man front is to run the ball. Josh is not fixing anything throwing into 7 people in coverage behind this offensive line, especially if he can't break contain.

By the way give the Kurt Warner video a watch, every play, 4 man front, 4 man pressure, drop 7. 100% of the plays. Nowhere to throw the ball.

What, pocket time? If anything that is backing up what I'm saying. Allen wasn't in the pocket eating a sandwich last year for 2-3+ seconds, he got those additional seconds by breaking contain and extending plays 6-7 seconds+. Something he has barely been able to do this year. I remember Tyrod Taylor used to have exceptional "time to pass" stats. Not that hard when you run around behind the line of scrimmage like Taylor or Josh do.

I'm speculating on what is occurring. Combining what I have seen so far and what has been reported by "experts". What I'm discussing is not quantifiable, unless you get advanced stats on blitz% (we already know the Steelers game was very low we already know Josh's destroyed the Blitz last year). I get it, according to you, nothing is occurring, but then again, nothing you say is quantifiable either. So I guess neither opinion has much merit since neither is rooted in anything. Just two different opinions, yet somehow you seem like yours is more rooted in logic, which I don't really understand. I mean Kubiak did say Josh played well. He got a lot of +1 grades for throwing the ball away because we had nobody open.

Tell me about it. I'm pretty sure the Bills target arm length at DE as a measurable they value as both Groot and Epenesa were among the highest in each draft class as far as reach goes. Then you look at the wicked production Groot had in one year, the closing ability, the sub 4.7. Groot is going to be a pro bowler by next year. I've only said that about one other Bills lineman this early in my life and it was Kyle Williams. Sometimes you can just see it and when it's that obvious, you likely have something special.

That dude is stupid long. Arms, legs. Freaks show. How was he available?

I posted a lot of this is another thread. I think from KC on teams have played a very similar strategy against our offense and it's just as much on Daboll to figure it out as Josh. What do you do to young quarterbacks? Send pressure. We saw a lot of that last year. Not a good idea against Josh. Even if it is a good idea against most younger players, it allowed Josh to better isolate one on one match ups, coverages, and the pressure rarely got home. Usually we would see the blitzing player fly right past Allen as he side stepped, bounce off of him, or he would roll out and either create large amounts of time for WR's to get open or have clear running lanes. This year, it's rush 3 or 4 max. Drop everybody. Stay in a contained rush, break contain and Allen will break the pocket. Essentially we are being dared to run the ball, teams are way over committed to the pass, and teams are employing a much more Allen specific pass rush with the 3-4 they do bring. Those 3-4 are getting home fairly quick and doing so in ways where Allen is not having an easy time escaping. Meanwhile defenses have 7-8 guys dropping back and Daboll is still happy to throw into it. You can blame Josh, but I almost blame Daboll more. Somebody in the other thread said Daboll was like Roman. He is, just the opposite. As advanced as his passing game is, you can't be a one dimensional offensive coordinator. A couple other factors. Josh is exceptional in play action, has been since Wyoming. It's the only thing I knew he could 100% do right out the gate. He has great timing out of play action. He isn't really getting quality PA reps. We also had zero crowd noise to contend with last year which I think would be much more challenging to the passing game than the running game. It's entirely possible McDermott will take Dabolls play calling away if he doesn't get in line. I don't think for one second this is what McDermott wants from his offense. He's a defensive mind at heart. He likely see's what's happening and knows balance has to come. Once the offenses embraces the word methodical it will start clicking again. The big plays will come naturally and we will be fine. Until then, I think we see similar results as to what we have of late.

We have a guy right here, now that a guy, here is an example of a guy.

Darn it, liking the Bills for 32 years doesn't get my fan card. Since we can never be critical in wins, I will also never be positive in losses. I shall cast nothing but unfiltered misery after each loss and fart rainbows and unicorns after each win. After another 10 years I will reapply for my fan card. Thank you for showing me the way.

Imagine opening your body up and closing your eyes. Then give somebody the size of Epenesa about a 5 yard head start to just drive directly into your chest. That's what happened. It was a very violent, but also very clean. Tua didn't see it and Epenesa had time to get his mass accelerated. If he went higher and it ended up being dirty Tua would no longer have a head.