Mikie2times

I'm not sure if many recall this, but we targeted Manny first, I wonder if he was decisive if we still get Diggs? Now we have them both. Beane clearly never forgot about Manny and I laugh when they call him old. He one of those age isn't relevant players. Just as smooth as it gets in his routes and can play anywhere. The riches we have at WR is just not fair. You could make two teams have a fairly decent group out of all of them. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/1/21202749/the-buffalo-bills-had-interest-in-wr-emmanuel-sanders-stefon-diggs-trade

If you look at Mahomes and Allen, you see a variation in how teams are going about defending them. Neither is getting blitzed like they once did. Allen's career blitz average is over 40% per attempt, this year it's just 13.7%, while Mahomes is at 13.8%, down from his career average of 23%. You saw how we played Mahomes and how teams have played us. Rush four, try and disrupt the pocket and play coverage. Is the blitz obsolete? Obviously not. We will never see the 85 Bears again. Reduced contact within 5 yards allows plays to start faster rendering the blitz more risky. I think teams have learned with Mahomes and Allen if you blitz and they evade you, it's over. You will be down defenders in coverage and they can throw from any position extending plays 6+ seconds. It isn't just saying don't blitz, you also need a defensive line to disrupt the pocket with only four rushers and enough meat in the middle to not get gutted in the ground game (sounds a lot like Pittsburgh). Excellent back end coverage certainly doesn't hurt either. Last year we didn't have the make up to do all these things. Very few teams have the make up to do all these, I thought Tampa Bay was about as close as anybody at the end of last year. Buffalo was built around it's coverage at DB and LB. We also have aggressive blitz packages. Getting a top notch DL was never something I envisioned as a real possibility this early. This year Star has been a different player. Maybe the year off revitalized him. He's absorbing two blockers and not conceding any space. Zimmer has been a very solid rotational player. Groot, Boogie, and AJ have injected another dimension into the pass rush. Then Hughes, Addison, and Oliver can all flash at anytime, all current or former starters, all of these guys rotating. Which is key, they stay fresh and offensive lineman never get a beat on tendency. It has to be maddening to face so many styles. We saw this style of defense on display all night and we dominated. We saw a much more aggressive, blitzing style defense on display previous weeks and we dominated. This defense was built on coverage and now it is a considerable threat without blitzing to get home. We have not had that luxury in the McDermott / Frazier era and they have had a lot of success without such a benefit. This defense has a chance to be historically good this season. We can play any style we want. DVOA from Football outsiders actually has us as being historically good as of this time with the KC game being against far and away the #1 offense in the NFL.

Jersey sales are not the meat of this discussion unless you think Mac Jones is also in the conversation. Everybody who wanted a Mahomes jersey this year already had one. Where Josh ascended last year, from being a jersey mostly bought by WNY and die hard fans to being the jersey of an MVP candidate. That is why Josh leads the league in jersey sales. In a couple years, regardless of how it goes, it won't be the same way because everybody will already have an Allen jersey. Having said all this, you saw how they marketed Favre. Allen is more charismatic than Favre. Allen could go directly to ESPN right now based on his communication skills and background. So yes, Allen will become the face of the league if the Bills win a Super Bowl. It's a no brainer to push things in that direction for the league. His back story is phenomenal, he plays a style that is as gritty as they come, he has interesting anecdotes, excellent communication skills, athletic freak, man of the people, and Bills mafia is actually becoming a rather popular brand for the league. They like to sell our passion as a fan base more so much than jumping through tables, but yes, Bills mafia is becoming an NFL brand and that will only grow with further with success.

He really is. If you just watch his more casual conversations in interviews he just keeps people laughing. Quick wit and really good sarcasm. One of the better ones to watch.

It almost looks like we are running the same defensive plan the Steelers did week 1. That said, this DL is the difference right now. They're getting home rushing four.

The KC OL has been holding Groot on almost every play.

It really was the shared vision and lack of ego between him and Beane that has made the difference. How many coach/GM combinations are actually friends, sharing the same vision on how to build a team, never in conflict with each other, never fighting for who is the biggest reason things have went well. Then with Terry and Kim, I think they both did a great job in identifying the right people and not micro managing them. We had one of the worst front offices in the NFL for almost 20 years and it really didn't matter the moving parts, it just never fit together. A lot of teams still look just like we used to or like we used to have an owner that gets too involved.

Be sure to send a strongly worded letter to the Bills analytics department that their contributions aren't relevant. But if we win based on said analytics wouldn't that make them relevant? Is your mind relevant?

All of us are pausing, which words should I pick? D*** V***** O? A**

Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.

Thanks Tuesday, I'm a huge fan of DVOA's prognostication power and thought the last two years early in the season we were a bit overrated. Then both years we made some major progress in DVOA as the season progressed. So even more DVOA plot twists, we have a pattern of improving as the season progresses I certainly expect some regression, the KC game will be a really big test, but the bottom line with this team, if you are a bottom 20 offense you will not beat us. They say "Any given Sunday" but not this team. Eventually we will get to 20 and lower performing offenses simply won't.

Stars biggest role in the defense to take out two blockers and free our LB's. Won't get you many PFF points or stats but he is the best on the team at doing this and it's clearly helped our LB's make plays.

Really good post, thank you

1- Ertz- probably (may take another thread)

I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.

I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have. The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019. Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it. Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020. As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming. After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way. Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at.

You forgot Bill Parcells, I don't think Simms is getting in. Also, I don't give Gibbs or Gruden additional credit based on this. Gruden was an offensive coach that happened to get one of the best defenses of all time and the Redskins just had an absolutely dominate squad in the 80's an early 90's. I agree with the poster that said BB, good coach, bad GM. He has been a very bad GM. He does a good job acquiring picks, but so many misses and very poor FA activity/trades. The conclusion of Brady's career was also dreadful in the way it was handled . Super Bowl windows still existed in New England if they would have gotten him more talent.

Josh is unconscious right now. One of the better first half's in Bills history at the QB position. Thrilled to see, will certainly give him his due after this one.

6"7, 265 and attacks the ball in the air. Catches everything with his hands and covers a massive catch radius with his height and arm length. Above average speed and agility for a player his size. I doubt we get in a position to draft him, but wow. The guy is a more athletic version on Antonio Gates (he played basketball in the past as well). I wasn't aware of him until I watched the the game Friday night and I came away with my jaw on the floor. I thought Kyle Pitts was the second coming, but Wood will give him a run for his money. I don't think he gets slotted like Pitts. Maybe we have a shot. Really enjoyed watching his game.

I know how folks on the board like them stories from the high school days. I had a Levi moment. I was very amped up. It was a big spot in the game. Laid a TE out and did exactly what Wallace did. I don't blame him. It's a learning experiences. I was lucky not to get called, probably should have. I was absolutely showing poor sportsmanship, but again. just was caught in the moment. That's all it was. He will learn from it and it won't happen again.

I think it's been an element to his hesitancy. Not all of it, but a part of it. I also don't think defenses are rushing him as uncontrolled as they have in the past.

Really great post, only slightly pausing as I can't find the stats myself. Curious how they get measured, does it involves just passing plays or also running plays? I would think he would get a slight edge against non rotational players either way. Having said this, he could have had 3-4 sacks against Miami. I feel horrible for the dude. He was brutalizing them and as your stat reference it appeared like his jump was lighting. I feel so bad because it wasn't like he didn't get home in time. I mean he knocked out Tua basically at the apex of his drop. Was getting home lighting quick. We have been so impressed with Groot. As we should be. AJ can also be a special player. I think as the season elapses we will see less from Addison and likely even Hughes. These young guys can ball.

I just skimmed the DL rush to be honest, then assumed he wouldn't have anywhere to go with 7 dropping. Bad assumption apparently. *oh god a watched it. well, now I feel even worse than I did before. thank you.

I like YPA as the best single/simple metric, DVOA as more of a complex one. I know we will see some form of regression soon. These numbers are just too good. As you said, .5 ahead of #2 in YPA is historically good levels if that holds. I don't think any regression will be too deep. I do think this lands as a Top 3 unit by years end. We will really know where we stand after October 18th playing KC and the Titans B2B.

Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He was the best in the NFL against the blitz and had one of the best seasons in NFL history facing the Blitz. He was in the top 5 most frequently blitzed QB's in both 2019 and 2020. Allen has faced the blitz on 13.1% of his attempts so far this season. Which will end up making him the least blitzed QB in the NFL this year if the trend continues. For context, last season he was blitzed on 42.7% of his attempts. While getting blitzed (defined as 5 or more rushers) nearly a 1/3rd of the frequency as last year, his pressure rate is actually higher in 2021, 30.8% vs 2020, 21.9% on his attempts. So ya, that's pretty telling. I mean teams are getting to him with more consistency by using less players. I think some of this is a lack of decisiveness in his reads (because his passing lanes are flooded) and certainly I'm not absolving offensive line play . Just to summarize if teams aren't blitzing, then they are at minimum dropping 7 in coverage. Again, I don't see how the image I painted is far off from what I described, what the stats are saying. I'm pretty sure the best way to beat a 4 man front is to run the ball. Josh is not fixing anything throwing into 7 people in coverage behind this offensive line, especially if he can't break contain.