Mikie2times

Bills fans have become Glenn Close from Fatal Attraction

I'm sorry to tell you this but that is Josh

I like that you said what the acronym is. How old am I? How old are you 🤣

I mean, Brady looked ridiculous as well but that ended up ok. He's probably feeling himself a little bit after making a quarter billion, being single for the first time. Might it impact him in other ways? Who knows. Part of growing up and becoming who he is. Everybody else seems to think he's a pretty level headed guy. I'm going to go with that assumption vs thinking this is a problem of some sorts.

This is looking at expected points, playoff averages vs regular season averages and total variation. Negative = negative variation regardless if it's offense or defense. As you can see, Buffalo takes a pretty deep hit basically everywhere. The only place we didn't was on offense in 2021, but the defensive performance in 2021 was actually worse than our offensive one 🤢 KC is just consistent on offense. Incredibly so. On defense they fall in a similar way as Buffalo. Then for the Bengals, Burrow has avoided a major offensive regression and his defense seems to be the most consistent. Clearly it is very hard to maintain the quality of play you have in the regular season come playoff time. Buffalo appears worse in both regards at doing that. KC appears best at maintaining it on offense. The Bengals seem to be the most balanced as a whole.

Based on expected points Buffalo had it's second worse offensive performance of the year the week prior against Miami. We would have lost that game to just about any other team, and it would have most certainly been on Allen. Yes, 2021 was, until this point, our year. Allen was dominant that year in the two games we played. 2020, we had our worst offensive performance in expected points in the playoffs against Baltimore. Then our 3rd worst against Kansas City. Buffalo has had 15 games with expected point value of 4 or less for just the offense since 2020. 2 came in the 2020 playoffs, and 2 came in the 2022 playoffs. The defense also crapped itself, but a sub 4 will tend to cost you the game by itself unless you get an elite defensive showing. One thing I will say about the Bengals and Burrow, is the defense did more for his playoff success than him and the offense. He has had similar poor offensive outputs in the playoffs, like Buffalo and Allen have had, but his defense picked him up. Ours did the complete opposite. We have only had two above average defensive performances in the playoffs since 2019. Ravens/Covid home game and Miami last year (which gets hidden by a lot of points, but they were dominant non the less). I believe I wrote on this in the past, likely will again. As far as discussing why we are or why we are not, is Allen better than Burrow or not, etc. The difference in defensive performance, especially when it matters, is nearly everything.

Why would a team game plan to shut down our running backs? We don’t run the football with our running backs. If we had Mixon we still wouldn’t run the ball with our running backs. If a bonafide run game was just one RB a way then we have the worst GM in football by not pursuing a high end running back. We don’t want to use the traditional run game with Josh. Understanding why that is should be a bigger question than if Mixon is better. Why does a team in the Bengals who also has a horrible line willing to use the traditional run game to offset the weakness the line brings while the Bills are not? Why are they willing to run and not be very good at it and keep doing it over and over? Mixon last three years he has an average of 3.6 / 4.1 / 3.9 I got the idea that we can’t get the ball to our TE and RB because we don’t get the ball to our TE and RB. If we had to look at a % of yards our running backs and TE’s account for it is no doubt among the worst in the NFL. Maybe that will change in 2023 with Kincaid. I sure hope so. As for Burrow with no Chase, he is 1-4 against the Browns. His record against KC and Buffalo is better than his record against Cleveland. They own him with or without Chase. He was his normal dominant self in the 3 other games Chase didn’t play.

The stats I'm comparing are against themselves more than each other. Burrow is not seeing a decline in production in 3rd and long, Allen is. Same as when trailing vs leading and in games between 0-7 points. You see the performance of that player not decline and in some cases improve for Burrow, but decline rapidly in all 3 areas for Allen. Especially when trailing or in close games. I also disagree with this argument for the Bengals based on Boyd, Higgins, and Mixon. It would be the first time in modern NFL history any credence was given to a #2, #3, and RB making a QB great. Mixon averaged all of 3.9 yards per carry last year. Burrow was pressured 110 times last year, same as Josh, and sacked 92 times the last two seasons. Neither team has any offensive line play. Chase is incredible, so is Diggs. Motor has a better yards per carry average than Mixon. Hurst has better stats than Knox. It's a wash at RB and TE combined. It doesn't really matter at this point anyway because we can't get the ball to our RB or TE. Higgins and Boyd are significantly better, but that won't really matter all that much either and we will see that soon enough. Burrow did just fine when Chase was out. He we will require those horses less over time with the way he processes. I also lived in Ohio the last 20 years so I have watched Burrow plenty. He is as close to Brady as the league has. He wins with his arm, timing, and precision. Allen wins with athleticism, improvisation, and arm talent. You can take Allen's strengths away easier than Burrows even if Allen has more of them. Allen is more fun to watch. He's more enjoyable in many areas and I prefer having him to Burrow, who I really don't care for, but Burrow is cold blooded AF and will be making life difficult for us along with Mahomes for a long time.

One last split on these guys. These, again, are career numbers.

Burrow consistency in passing is just higher because he is better at just passing. Josh makes up for it to some extent in athleticism, but when you look at situations that really require passing and passing only, that is where you see the separation. Burrow has a QBR of 101.9 when leading and 101.2 when trailing. Allen, 99 leading vs 86.4 trailing, almost a 14 point drop. Allen has a 92.2 QBR overall, on 3rd down its 88, 4.2% drop. Burrow has a 100.4 QBR overall, on 3rd down it's 103.2. 2.8% better

I don't think Josh is a traditional QB. He is not going to take 3-5 steps and fire. He will at times do this, but improvisation is a big part of his game. Which also involves running. Which is he very good at as well. Burrow is a traditional QB. He is heavily dependent on timing. He is very accurate. Not nearly as good as Josh at improvising. Really, only Mahomes is, but he can run if he needs to. At times we see the benefits of having a QB like Josh and at times we see the negatives. I think Brady showed that a pure passer will always beat anything else. It's the hardest to take away. The most demoralizing. That's what Burrow is probably even more so than Mahomes. So I expect Burrows will keep giving both Josh and Mahomes issues.

I don't think it matters all that much outside of the fact that the team makes it such a big goal each year. If they can't accomplish that goal, it wouldn't seem likely they can accomplish more, but sure, some have done so, and what matters most for us is getting hot at the right time like we did in 2021.

I will just answer the first one. I understand Rodgers was banged up last year and the Jets had a horrible QB last season. Allen was also banged up last year and the Bills injuries and expectations made things very difficult. Below is performance against the AFC East last season. If I just put this up and nothing else, can anybody tell who everybody is outside of our guy? Maybe Rodgers turns things around but he will turn 40 this year and he's no longer going up against the pillow soft NFC. Expectations for him and the Jets are high. Envisioning an abrupt fall from grace given the market he is playing in does not seem that far fetched. I still consider Buffalo the dominant leader in this race. The more people want to talk about the Jets and Miami, the more I like our chances. We have the best QB and it's not close and we have not had the benefit of playing with a chip on our shoulder for a long time.

What? I don't think he has a chance. 62 years says as much. I wanted to get a sanity check on the outlook.

I always thought this was one of the more remarkable stats in NFL lore. With the massive advancement in the passing game and more games being played, 62 years later, Mike Ditka STILL holds the record for TE receiving yards by a rookie at 1,076. Kyle Pitts would have broken the record if it wasn't for injury. Kyle Pitts was also one of the best TE prospects of all time. To think about how many elite TE's the league has seen the last 62 years. It really is remarkable that this record has held up. Do we think Kincaid has a chance?

Dude, you actually have time to remember and circle back with people that disagreed with you on an internet forum? You must be a hit in real life.

The current system is really all we know, so while this concept sounds weird it’s actually pretty logical. Get what the market is willing to pay you and go to that team. As far as the cost of these players? They have huge value. Even in a bidding style system, this is the cheapest labor in the NFL. A reason exists why players on rookie deals are so highly regarded.

This all day. He just got open and was money when you needed 5-8 yards. We don’t have that player and showed last year.

If we need 5 yards, Beasley is still the best WR on this team and it's a role we have not been able to fill since his departure. Not having this has made the offense more prone to three and outs, not as consistent. He was huge on the underneath slants, in routes, quick outs.

Hearing a lot about how good the roster is. We had plenty of drought era teams that were paper champs. Let see how they put this all together. Even more, how well do they do whey we are the underdogs. It's almost humorous to think.

Is a likely HOF WR with 2 or so very good years left, worth a 2nd round pick? I would think so.

Devin Singletary had a career 4.7 yards per carry. You could argue it was because we don't feature the RB position in this offense but then your argument would have to be that we will feature the RB in this offense. Which we won't. If we address the line, Harris, Cook, and Hines will be just fine. If you want one more guy I can give you half a dozen 3rd/4th/5th round picks that can give you replacement value. Betting on above replacement value at a position that declines rapidly and using premium assets to do so makes zero sense.

Easier to look at Bills, a guy that stands out is James Hardy. I thought he was exactly what we needed at the time and he was out of the league in about 5 seconds. I know a lot of people liked him on here as well.