Mikie2times

Good post and I'm not trying to be negative, but I don't think the data indicates the Chiefs invest more on offense than the Bills. In literal money, the Bills have 101.6 million outside QB going to the offense and KC has 95.2 million in 2023. KC has only selected 4 picks in the last 4 drafts in the top 3 rounds on offense. I also had the same perception which is why I knew the numbers. I was shocked when I saw them and remember looking at the total salary spread and thinking we have basically mirrored the allocation of our salary to them. I would say we differ a pretty good deal on LB and DB. They also spend more on DL, but we spend a lot in that area as well. They just REALLY spend.

Sean McDermott and the Bills have some striking similarities to those Colts teams in the 2000's. Sean McDermott and Tony Dungy have some striking statistical similarities as well. What we are seeing amongst our fan base is actually very similar to what Colts fans experienced in those years. The NFL has had 145 coaches who at least had one year during the Super Bowl era and also coached at least 5 seasons Tony Dungy ranks 8th all time in regular season winning % in that sample, Sean McDermott ranks 12th Tony Dungy ranks 1st all time in % of years coaching that resulted in a playoff birth (85%), Sean McDermott ranks 2nd (83%) No coach in NFL history (outside Sean McDermott) with 5 or more years in coaching, and led his team to a playoff birth 70% of the time has failed to win a Super Bowl. This also includes Tony Dungy. Other qualifying coaches are John Madden, Andy Reid, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carrol, and Bill Walsh. At even 60% or greater, 33 Super Bowls are represented with the only coaches to not win one being Bud Grant, Marty Schottenheimer, Dennis Green, and Mike Vrabel. 19 of 24 coaches that led teams to the playoffs 60% or more of the time won at least one. In the above context Sean McDermott has not just been good, he has been historically good. Same as Dungy, and both were good in somewhat similar situations. Both defensive minded, zone defenses at that, elite QB's, facing off against the combination of a juggernaut QB and coaching tandem. Colts first season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card Colts second season with Dungy they lost in the AFC Championship Colts third season with Dungy they lost in the Divisional round Colts fourth season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card Colts fifth season with Dungy they won the Super Bowl As far as playoff losses, those Colts teams have been very similar to what we have seen from Buffalo. By no means was the path linear and I would argue that part of what allowed the Colts to finally breakthrough was just showing up year after year. The historical data on just showing up that often becomes pretty overwhelming. Dungy would go onto coach 2 more years. Ousted by the Chargers in the Wild Card round both times. In this time, Dungy was a polarizing figure. That Colts team, like this Bills team, was elite. Expectations were very high. Most Colts fans would argue they didn't achieve what they should have despite winning a Super Bowl. So when people support Sean McDermott at a high level, he deserves it. Further, when people are not supportive. That's understandable as well. Plenty of space exists for both opinions and neither disqualifies you as a fan. Sorry in advance for another McDermott related thread, I just think the history of the Colts team can teach us some things on why people feel the way that they do. It doesn't need to be so polarizing. We all want the same thing. Go Bills!

I wonder if the narrative changes if we lost to the Colts who completely outplayed us at home. They had over 450 total yards on offense and over 150 on the ground. More than 25 first downs and over 50% on third down. That would have been two years we got ousted in the first round.

I'm not weighing in on a side on this as much as I'm saying it doesn't make you a hack or troll to just be concerned over some of the things being discussed. 51 coaches have at least 8 playoff games, .444 winning % in the playoff ranks 42 of the 51 If you evaluate variance between regular season winning% and playoff winning%, he ranks 45 of 51. It can all change in one year. It did for John Madden and Tony Dungy, who surround him in the second metric, but it never did for Dennis Green or Marty Schottenheimer who are also very close to him in the same category. I view the next few years as being pretty important to either cementing this narrative or blowing it up. That's all Einstein seems to be saying.

He would be bordering on incompetent or loyal to a fault if he did not move on from Frazier and either answer would have been enough to put him at risk next year if something similar happened. Playing the game of what shade of grey it was is even more adorable than just saying it's grey.

SDS commissioned me to write overly complicated Bills content in different historical eras......

I asked ChatGPT to change the post a little Gentlemen and fellow enthusiasts of the game, I beseech your attention as I present my findings on the Super Bowl endeavors of the past septenary. A revelation of utmost import has emerged - the delicate balance betwixt offense and defense holds the key to triumphant conquest in this grand sporting spectacle. Pray, let us commence with an examination of the most points conceded during these Super Bowl escapades. The average doth tally at a daunting 30.14 points. Yet, lo and behold, the zenith of excellence was reached in 2020, wherein a mere 26 points were permitted. Recall, if you will, the Denver Broncos of 2015, their defense a paragon of mastery, the last victors to hoist the Super Bowl crown without succumbing to more than three touchdowns throughout the playoffs. Now, let us delve into the profound metrics that lay afore us. I have delved deep into the Expected Points Added (EPA) performance of both the offensive and defensive factions, and I have unearthed intriguing patterns that demand elucidation. Only two teams in these bygone years exceeded the EPA thresholds: the Rams on offense and the Eagles on defense. However, what doth bewilder is the remarkable occurrence when one side faltered, the other rose valiantly to the fore, compensating for their comrades' lackluster showing. Such a symphony of resilience showcases the essence of interdependent support during times of tribulation. Yet, I must draw your attention to the plight of the EPA, for a negative or feeble offensive EPA doth signal dire straits. To mine astonishment, in the span of 49 regular season encounters from 2020 to 2022, our team hath languished in such wretchedness on but four occasions. These rare moments were mollified by the resplendent exhibitions of our stalwart defense, who steadfastly rectified any offensive frailties. Likewise, a defensive EPA amounting to 20 or more is deemed lamentable. Fret not, for our team hath partaken in such ignominy but thrice in these bygone years. Marvelous it is to perceive that, when our defense stumbled, our offense delivered veritable masterstrokes, surmounting all odds and transcending adversity. What tidings doth this portend for our team's audacious quest for Super Bowl supremacy? Verily, the collective strength of our entire ensemble is paramount. We must uplift one another, eschew catastrophic misadventures, and ensure that both factions achieve exaltation. It is essential to note that, barring a solitary year of aberration, our defense hath remained stalwart. Nonetheless, to vie for the Super Bowl with genuine prospects, we must restrict our defense from amassing an EPA exceeding 15, lest our prodigious quarterback, Josh Allen, work prodigious wonders. Though the notion of constraining our adversaries to fewer than three touchdowns throughout an entire playoff odyssey may prove fantastical, we must strive to maintain a delicate equilibrium and shield both sides from grievous foibles. History doth impart wisdom, revealing that triumphant Super Bowl assemblages have weathered encounters wherein one faction bore the burden or resorted to unconventional stratagems for amassing points. Their triumphs hinged upon overcoming such arduous tribulations, aided by the unyielding support of their compatriots. Let us rally with unbridled ardor behind our cherished team as they strive for Super Bowl glory, cognizant that a harmonious and mutually supportive performance shall forge the path to hallowed triumph. Together, let us script indelible chapters on this voyage toward gridiron supremacy! I eagerly await your cogitations upon these revelations. How, pray tell,

They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs and won by 3 and 23 to the Rams and lost by 3. Then 23 to the Chiefs the next year and lost by 3. If anything, I think you're making the argument that they haven't been able to score enough. My work emails suck 😂

I rambled.... We will have to overcome 30 points in the playoffs to win a Super Bowl (more likely than not) The narrative on whose fault it is when we have to drop that 30 will likely come down to how the offense plays We can't implode on either side of the ball, which we have on both sides in all but 2021 As much as people blame the defense, the offense should not be getting a pass either

In the last 7 Super Bowl runs, the winning team had to overcome an average of 30.14 points when you look at the most points they allowed during that run. The lowest total was 26 in 2020. 2015 was the Broncos elite defense and the last team to win a Super Bowl without allowing more than 3 TD's during the playoffs. 2022= 35 Points 2021= 27 Points 2020= 26 Points 2019= 31 Points 2018= 31 Points 2017= 33 Points 2016= 28 Points When you look at EPA performance on Offense and Defense, only the Rams (offense) and the Eagles (defense) in the above 7 year sample had any games that resulted in either of the below EPA thresholds being hit. Each of them had 1 game qualify during the run they had. In each situation the opposite side of the ball played well enough to make up the difference Rams (Offense -6.76 Defense -4.46) Eagles ( Offense 29.26 Defense 27.61) An EPA (Expected Points) that is negative or worse on offense is very poor. We only had 4 such occurrences in 49 regular season games from 2020-2022 2022 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Dolphins at -2.41 other side of the ball Defense (-15.56 dominating) 2021 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 25.24 other side of the ball Defense (32.62 Turd) 2020 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at -3.61 other side of the ball Defense (30.34 Turd) An EPA (Expected Points) at 20 or greater is very poor. We only had 3 such occurrences in 49 regular season games from 2020-2022 2022 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Bengals at 22.03 other side of the ball Offense (3.52 Turd) 2021 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 32.62 other side of the ball Offense (25.24 dominating) 2020 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 30.34 other side of the ball Offense (-3.61 Turd) When you look at the Super Bowl teams one thing becomes really obvious. Every year they had to have at least one game in which the offense had to carry it or they had to manufacture points. They also had to avoid the catastrophic meltdown on either side of the ball and if they underperformed on one side they needed to be good enough to make it up on the other. In most of the years you look at, at least one game existed where you would say that teams offense failed them or defense failed them. That wasn't said because the other side of the ball picked them up and nobody remembered how it all played out, just that it did. VERY similar to how the narrative on this team wasn't about our defense being awful in the playoffs after 2021 year, when in fact it was the most awful according to EPA of all the awful in that game. The offense erased that thought in most of us. Just like the defense erased that thought about the offense in our divisional game against the Ravens. All we remembered is we won. Again the next year in our home game against Miami, with a -15 defensive EPA. This isn't just about our defense. This is about the team collectively being good enough to pick each other up, to avoid the meltdown. Which thus far has not happened on both sides of the ball outside 2021. We can't allow more than about a 15 EPA on defense to have a shot. Not unless Josh goes off. But for those that think the path would most likely be to hold our our opponents under 3 TD's for an entire playoff run? That isn't going to happen.

This doesn't sound like CTE

I would rather see Tyreek Hill at a marina than sign Elliott

(Verse 1) Buffalo Bills, let me tell you a tale, Got Eric as their Assistant Head, they prevail. He brings the laughter, keeps the team light, But his strategies, they're dynamite. (Chorus) Eric W, leading the way, Buffalo Bills, ready to play. With his humor and coaching skills, They're aiming for the Super Bowl thrills. (Verse 2) From the field to the sidelines, he's got the touch, Bringing joy to the Bills, he means so much. He's got their back, guiding their stride, Buffalo Bills, with Eric, reach new highs. (Chorus) Eric W, leading the way, Buffalo Bills, ready to play. With his humor and coaching skills, They're aiming for the Super Bowl thrills. (Outro) So let's cheer for Buffalo, the team so strong, With Eric W, they can't go wrong. Together they'll conquer, with laughter and might, Buffalo Bills, shining in the NFL's spotlight.

Agree. I think it will look good with white, but not that grey.

I mean. We can get into speculation all we want. What is not speculation is we split the regular season last year and would have lost in our house if they had any semblance of a QB situation. We could argue that we could play significantly better than we did in the playoff game. We could argue that getting all these guys back healthy will make a huge difference. I think both are true and I certainly think we are better than Miami. That said, my initial feelings of this stuff just being click bait probably aren't accurate. They basically played us even last year.

He took it over because it was becoming clear his job was at risk if what happened in the playoffs happened again. Fans and media would have a field day. Look at them as is. Can you imagine if he let Frazier stay? He was smart in getting ahead of it and it was the right thing to do.

We ranked 1st last year, 2nd in 2021, 4th in 2020. 1st/1st/4th if you count playoffs. I trust the DVOA rankings more than any other, but the system tends to rate us too high as a result of what we have done against bottom 3rd teams. If you told me a team ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th in DVOA over a three year span it would be hard to not win a Super Bowl. Almost impossible to have not gone to one. DVOA just doesn't work as well with how our team produces output. Good to see though, nothing I'm saying is to suggest we won't have a great year. As so many have said, it comes down to what we do in the playoffs.

I think Tyreek Hill is Antonio Brown.

Wrong guy. He was delivering food to a homeless shelter at that time.

One thing Beane has done tremendously well is attack contracts earlier.

Oddly specific 😂

I bought one yesterday 🙃

Guilty

San Diego State just played in the title game. NIL can also encourage players to stay in the college ranks longer. I don't think smaller schools will just phase out. What I don't like is I have no idea where anybody is anymore. Which sort of sucks. I liked to follow guys and that was easier when they stayed put. I don't mind the players getting money, but I hope we can get a better system in place.

Cleanse yourself 😂