Mikie2times

Odds are just an implied probability on an outcome. So yes, they're basically the same thing. Any odd range can be entered into an implied probability calculator. If the outcome occurs more than the implied probability of the odds you will make money long term. If it doesn't you will lose money long term. Here is a calculator https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/implied-probability/ The Chiefs are currently +650 which is an implied probability of 13.33%.

The thread is about perceptions clouding judgement. The narrative doesn't exist because of 2021. It's made our fanbase think that we have a good playoff offense. It is inconsistent at best. Just reading your post is a perfect microcosm of that. Different coaches the other years (same is true for 2022) different Josh (same is true for 2022). Further, in what way has Josh shown he is better than 2020 or even 2019? Why do you think you saw "playoff Josh" in 2021 more than what you saw the rest of the years? We have no consistency on offense with the style of play we showed. It's been a running theme in the playoffs for all but one year. People are so butt hurt over 13 seconds and enamored with how bad the defense has been, if they actually watched what happened they would see pretty average offensive performances in all but one year. Bad enough to cost us the game. They only didn't see that because the defense overshadowed it.

Todd Collins

Downright sexy analogy

I think the offensive played fine in the Chargers game. Another defensively challenged game. We got the late stop, but the Chargers set playoff records for offensive output in a loss. This thread isn’t to say one vs the other. It’s more about one overshadowing the other. The defensive can all of a sudden hold teams in the low 20’s and that won’t be enough if history is any indication. That’s a problem. New year. But I don’t think we can just say as a fan base, offense good, defense bad. It’s not that simple.

Our entire fan base holds its hat on 2021 and I’m cherry picking?

I respect the post, I just don’t like comparing us to the Bengals all that much. I sort of got pulled in that direction to defend the thread. We are built like KC in just about every way outside of defensive philosophy. The Bengals are just the perfect image of consistent. They keep every playoff game close (besides ours). Usually scoring in the 20’s, not more, usually allowing around the same. Burrow doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is always coming up with a timely play or drive. We are so opposite of this. All feast or famine on both sides of the ball.

Your understanding of scoring averages and how football games are won and lost needs some work. You don't win games based on averages, not unless those averages are created with consistency. Who cares if we have higher high's if we have lower low's and the format is single elimination? I did you a favor and bolded the losses. When the Chiefs, Bills, or KC has scored 20 or less in the playoffs the record is 1-6. KC and the Chiefs have as many combined as we do alone and two of three for those came in the Super Bowl. What is the likelihood we will score 20 or less next year given the data you're looking at? Bengals has scored 24, 27, 20, 26, 19, 27, 20 Bills has scored 34, 10, 47, 36, 27, 17, 24, 19 KC has scored 51, 35, 31, 22, 38, 9, 42, 42, 24, 27, 23, 28

Based on EPA that takes into account things like completion % and turnovers, not just yards, that was our second worst offensive game all year. Given our turnovers allowed a Skyler Thompson led Dolphins team to be winning in the 2nd half, I wouldn't exactly applaud this performance. Josh didn't take anything underneath. Efficiency in moving the ball was non existent. It was backyard football and nearly got us beat by an inferior opponent. We saw what happened with a a more worthy team a week later.

We have posted under 20 points 3 times in the playoffs since 2019 in 3 separate years. It could easily be 4 times if it wasn’t for garbage TD’s vs KC in 2020. We also could have had 10 points two separate years if it wasn’t for a pick 6. KC has put up under 20 one time in that span vs the Bucs and the Bengals, who play a vastly different style than we do, have done it once. The last team to win a Super Bowl and do it while scoring less than 20 points in the playoffs during that run was in 2018.

I'm highlighting one game to show how our perceptions of what is and isn't an issue have become very clouded. It didn't end up being 16 seconds for the Patriots because they overcame it. It didn't end up being a defensive issue for KC because they overcame it the next year. They both did this on offense. Nearly every team has to overcome on offense in the playoffs as we nearly did in 2021. But the reality is, we have not performed even close to that level before or since and if you look at our broader playoff performances on offense they lack the quality and consistency that we tend to see in the regular season. Based on 2021 and the poor defensive performance and how we lost 13 seconds, I think most people around here think the offense is fine come playoff time. It hasn't been. This would be much more obvious to most if the defense wasn't horrendous in our losses. But the fact is even if it wasn't, we still likely lose all three games. We see 20 to 1 ratios identifying playoff defense as the main problem. Playoff offense is just as big of a problem. The consistency isn't there and it goes past just 1 game involving KC and the Patriots to know you need to have elite consistency, clutch play, and the ability to score a ton of points if you want to make the Super Bowl. No, we just need to perform more consistently. It's all phases, people are just obsessed with defense.

Replaying the 4th quarter of the Patriots AFC Championship game at Arrowhead, it became clear just how much the final outcome can cloud the perceptions of how it occurred. In that AFC Championship game, final score, 37-31 ending in a New England win. New England scored to take a 3 point lead with 39 seconds left. It took Mahomes and the Chiefs 16 seconds to get into position to kick the game tying FG from inside the 25. New England would win the toss and score on it's first drive to win the game in OT. No talk of 16 seconds, they won the game. In the process of winning the game, despite having seen Brady do this for the better part of the last 20 years it was impossible to not see the level of precision it took to sustain drives. He was completing passes in the 4th quarter we aren't even attempting. KC had DB's painted on NE WR's and one of the best pass rushes in the league in KC that year had no ability at touch Brady with how quick he was getting the ball out. The level of efficiency on offense that it took to win that game was mind boggling. KC won the Super Bowl the next year and they didn't do so because they suddenly figured out a way to solve those defensive issues. They did so because Mahomes led an offense as clutch and consistent as any QB we have seen since Brady. Over in our neck of the woods, Josh and the offenses performance in 13 seconds and multiple defensive meltdowns have left us putting the failure of this team squarely on the defenses back. Hogwash. The only year we showed in our losses that we could sustain drives offensively was 2021. We were not able to come back like the Chiefs and execute at that level before or since. To win the Super Bowl you need that level of performance. Ask Philadelphia if you think otherwise. 2019 =Our offense scored 19 points in a loss to Houston including 6 points in the second half 2020 =Our offense puts up 9 points in the final 4 minutes to make a 38-15 score look respectable, but anybody watching that game knew we sputtered 2022 =Our offense puts up 10 points against the Bengals at home We can talk about the defense until we are blue in the face. We will have to perform at a 2021 level for an entire playoff run on offense to have any chance at this. In doing so, we need to be able to efficiently march the ball down field. Something we really haven't done since the back half of 2021. The defense has sucked in the playoffs, but the offense has as well. If we only allow 13 to the Bengals and they win 13-10, this is completely different perception. But that's all this is right now. A perception that the defense is preventing us from going further. At the end of the day the offense will be what decides this.

That’s like 3-4 drinks out here. I’ve been in Michigan all week and I’m enjoying the hell out of sane beverage prices

I'm convinced I could drop a high 70 in Romans system. So QB friendly. If you combine running+deep ball+check down+limit turnovers it's going to get you some wins. Certainly at replacement level or higher. That formula won't work as the competition increases. But it will put you on the brink of the playoffs if you can play some defense. As a hypothetical, I think New England would take that vs Mac Jones.

Interestingly, for all his short comings, he had the best deep ball of any QB I have seen in a Bills uniform, which goes back to Kelly. Also was (until Josh) the best runner we ever had at QB. That was enough to do some things. But his ability to hit intermediate throws and make downfield reads was his demise. It felt like for about 20+ years until Josh we just didn’t have a guy that could hit a 15 yard dig or shallow post. Taylor is a good dude. I see him in a very positive light, but ranking him is probably somewhere around Trent Edwards or JP Losman area all things considered.

https://thevikingage.com/2020/12/14/stefon-diggs-admits-minnesota-vikings/ If you replaced the team names, it's basically the exact same story.

McDermott is very measured with his words. He covered for Diggs last year in the Thanksgiving game and did it again in the Bengals game. He has done so in private with Diggs several times. Maybe he didn't fully calculate the outcome, but his intention was to put Diggs on notice and let the team know he wasn't beyond the process. It was completely out of his character to air this publicly, which sort of makes his intentions obvious (my opinion).

His approach to managing his concerns is either being passive aggressive on social media or losing emotional control on the sidelines. His behavior encourages the drama which would make me inclined to think he is ok with it. It was the same thing in Minnesota. Sort of this, well, he wasn't an outright bad teammate but something just wasn't right. Well this, what we are seeing, is what wasn't right. Consider the numbers that have made him feel this way. 1st in targets in 2020, 4th in 2021, and 5th in 2022. Also consider how this all started off as him just being a "competitor". Just wanting to win. This isn't about that. He is unquestionably the best WR on this team. We need him. But if I was to put money on it, he has just as much chance of forcing himself off the team by next year as he does being on the team and almost no chance we can make it a whole year without one of his "competitive" episodes. I wish I didn't feel this way, but his actions don't exactly inspire trust.

It was Manning and company that made them so consistent and it was Manning and company in the playoffs that made them so inconsistent. I mean Manning was awful. Even in the Super Bowl year, 3 TD's and 7 INT's. The defense was ok, but it really struggled against the run most years. I agree, it was not the defense that did it. More or less, it was just getting there so often, which was based on Manning's regular season success. When you're in it every year you set yourself up that often luck ends up on your side. Drawing a very weak Bears team and in some ways in how they beat the Patriots was a product of that. I feel as if Buffalo will inevitably fall into the same situation. Which I think for many sounds like a white flag, but we are also trying to do this, like the Colts, with an active dynasty. Much like Maddens Raiders with the Steelers if we want to search for another example. Ideally, I hope we can overcome enough to be the team to beat but until that happens.....

Wanted sauce, felt it was worth unloading picks to get him. Knew it would never happen. Felt the same way about Kyle Pitts. A few of these guys are as close to can't miss as it gets. Usually it's a result of physical gifts and natural playing ability. It's one thing to just be a combine hero, but when you're a combine hero and the tape shows it translating on the field as it did for Pitts and Sauce, I think it starts to become worth it to consider taking quality over quantity especially when you have a clear window like we do.

We also scored 19, 24, and 10 in 3 of the 4 losses with the 24 being more of a fluff score in the AFC Championship vs the Chiefs. So while the narrative has been it's the defenses fault, the reality is, outside of 2021, the offense hasn't exactly been lights out. Had we held the Bengals to 13 points the conversations around here would be much different.

True, we could also say Josh has performed better than Manning so far in the playoffs. Again, not a perfect comparison. Lots of angles to this.

We spend more money on the offensive line https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/ it's not engineering, it's publicly available data. We drafted 2 more players since 2018 in the 3rd round or better. If you eliminate the 3rd round, and just go with "premium" picks, we have drafted 5 players each in the 1st and 2nd round. If you eliminate 2018, KC has drafted 1 more player in the 1st and 2nd round. If you eliminate 2018 and 2019, KC has drafted 1 more player. If you eliminate 2018, 2019, and 2020 it's even. If you eliminate 2019, 2019, 2020, 2021.... get the point? You can't calculate this in a way to make you correct. Even worse, KC has had more "Premium" draft choices. If your argument is KC has used more resources in these areas, the definition of resource can't be your opinion. I would assume if your intent is to say we didn't care enough about it as much as they do, then you would see it in the dollars spent or draft picks used. Neither show up. So as I said, for the 3rd time, your complaint is about how we have used the resources. Not the use of the resources.

I'm not trying to prove you wrong. I think it would be better for you to say you don't like who the Bills have invested resources in. The Bills have unequivocally spent more money on the offensive line than KC has. They just haven't done it in a way that some prefer. They ranked 3rd in 2020, 5th in 2021, 14th in 2022, and 10th in 2023. KC only spent more in 2022 and it was by 3 million dollars. From 2019 to current, 5 of 12 KC 2nd round or better draft picks were on offense. Buffalo had 4 of 9. Buffalo has drafted more offensive players as a % of draft picks in the sample you gave and spent more on the offensive line. These are not my opinions. So again, I think it's more a matter of who they have went after and how they did it (in most cases more by committee and not WR) vs what areas.

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater. Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.