Mikie2times

Just to be clear. You think it's normal for people to do 150mph at 3am?

I'm saying it's common for law enforcement to treat star athletes favorably. For every unfavorable scenario like Ed, you will find more favorable outcomes, black or white. When it's a celebrity or athlete skin color doesn't matter as much as when it's a regular Joe. In general terms, you see a high correlation between speeding after midnight and DUI's. The higher the MPH on the vehicle the higher the correlation to DUI's. So why is it that far fetched to think he could have been drinking. All you have to say to make that conclusion is he got favorable treatment from law enforcement. https://www.theiacp.org/projects/the-correlation-between-speed-and-alcohol-project

For every Ed Oliver 100 get off without anybody ever knowing otherwise. It was 3am. If somebody said a person was pulled over doing 150mph at 3am, what would you put the over/under on that he was drinking? I would say 90%. 75% in this exact situation. Plenty of fan cops.

As soon as I get my mouth off this foot I'll let you know

Shut up and win the offseason

My brother is a flower in Utah and says he is constantly violated

It will be Higgins. Agree that Mike Brown will struggle to pay, but he will get it done for Burrow. I think Chase as well.

It would be interesting (maybe I will break it down eventually) to see the outcome of the coaches that weren't fired. Who they were and what was the nature of the situation. Also, is it first five seasons for both coach and player? I tend to agree that McDermott is starting to be on the wrong side of the odds, but it's still interesting to consider some coaches and the situations they found themselves in that almost ended this stat. John Madden- Started coaching in 1969 with Lamonica at QB. Stabler joined in 1970 starting in 1973. Made the playoff every year but 1971 and his final year coaching. Winning a Super Bowl in his 8th season as a head coach with 6 early playoff departures Tony Dungy- He won it the 5th year and damn was it close. By that point he had 8 previous playoff departures. These guys have an interest to me in regards to the stat being discussed because both came within a fraction of that stat no longer existing (Madden might actually nullify it depending on the criteria you use). What is the common thread with both coaches? They played in the same era as a Dynasty. Madden couldn't overcome the Steelers. Dungy couldn't overcome the Patriots. Now we have to deal with the Chiefs. I think if we dig into the history of this stat and the ones that failed we will find a lot of teams that shouldn't have won. Teams that just matched up against other teams that were flat out better. Which maybe they look back at us one day and say the same thing. I sure as hell hope not. Full disclosure, I have no horse in this conversation. I like the discussion it brings. You have two passionate sides. Neither knows for sure. All we can do is discuss the history as many have. It's made for decent conversation.

I think we are seeing about how much a coach can do without a star QB with what we have seen with BB these last few years. Which IMO is very similar to what we saw from McDermott his first year. Without that QB, a coach can be good enough to get you into to the playoffs. But that's about the extent of it. So in my mind I agree that it's Allen being more valuable in a landslide. As far as how much the coach ultimately matters when you have the great QB? Maybe it's even more important at that point. Who knows. It's a different angle to evaluate it under. I think most agree Andy Reid and Bill Belichick pass that test when maybe they weren't so good at passing other tests. While Bud Grant and Marv Levy failed that test but excelled in others.

It's funny, what seemingly gives him no limitations (his mobility) is the very thing that actually limits his ceiling. No matter how you slice it, the very best are the best in the pocket. The elites in that area are the legends. Nobody else. Brady, Montana at the highest of the rung. Burrow being of that style, just not pedigree at this time. Mahomes is probably the most different, but even with him, he wants to be mobile in the pocket vs flat run. I have always thought when it comes to a QB running it actually hurts development. It's something they go to when other things aren't working. We have seen that with Josh. But then a time comes where you can no longer use it. Teams take it away or its late in a game. Running is not something a wise QB builds a large foundation around. I think Josh actually can mature into a more true pocket guy. For his development, even more than his health, I hope we see him do that.

Easily more IMO, but not more than what Baltimore paid, which to your point was lunacy. I look at OBJ as having more injury concerns and generally more uncertainty than Hopkins. Hopkins probably even has the higher ceiling if it's measured in one year-two years. Not everybody has the same school of thought on Hopkins, but i see him as a legit number one over the next year or two and then a stronger decline. But if that is what it is, well worth it.

One of the all time greats, magic voice

Don't hurt yourself with some of these advanced stats, you might have to reconcile things like the second worst EPA of the season vs the Dolphins or the worse completion % out of any of the teams you listed. Bottom 20 actually. You know, what we sustain drives with..... best keep all this data to the regular season as well. We wouldn't want to deep dive into how the chuck and duck does in the playoffs. That is unless you want to stick with 2021, which you have before. She will end up being like your first girlfriend when you speak of her at the rate we are going.

You act as if chucking the ball 50 yards each play is some sort of recipe for success? It's why our offense sucked for the back 8 (suck as in playing like a video game, 3 point shots or nothing (great analogy by another poster), more turnovers + more sacks from slower developing plays. No rhythm) You're right, only Allen could have won us the game WE PLAYED. Maybe you should ask yourself if it makes sense to be playing a high risk / reward offense against the Skyler Dorsal Fins. We had the game won when we walked out, until we almost handed it over losing our lead in the 2nd half. The medicine that is leave it to Josh to do some amazingly crazy things isn't the cure, it's the problem.

not better, look a few posts down in that thread and it will get into air yards per attempt

Play college ball at Duke and eventually become the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills 😂

The point is it gives you a very clear indicator of what the offense is trying to do. A west coast offense won’t have many air yards, which impacts how you game plan against them. Buffalo has been very different and much worse when the air yards average is high (which shows Alan isn’t taking underneath throws)

If isolating one play situation was enough to discredit every stat we would have no stats. Exceptionally horrible way to discredit something

It’s measured consistently on pro football reference. A person isn’t required to determine anything. They just use the play by play log. It’s as good a stat as anything else depending on what you want to know

If you look at Air Yards per attempt Josh’s 2021 year was the lowest total he ever posted. 2022 being much more like 2019. I think this is the key for him and Daboll did an excellent job coaching Josh on this. Josh is a different player when he takes the check downs. Our offense becomes consistent. He avoids turnovers. We can still air it out as we did in 2021 late in the year, but we built the foundation late in the year around shorter completions, which then more naturally opened up the longer stuff. 2022 it was just all air it out and it plays right into Josh’s weakness. I recall one poster mentioning how Miami was basically begging us to throw deep in the playoff game. Which was true. What that resulted in was a ton of offensive output, but a lot of longer developing plays and turnover risk. If you’re any DC in the NFL right now why wouldn’t you beg Buffalo to go over the top?

Your examples are correct regarding payouts. But any team that is + money still has “vig” it’s just built into the price. As an example a team that is +100 (bet 100 win 100) will actually have a real probability of between +105 or +110 (you can convert this into a % outcome) 48% or so would be an example. A team with a 48% projected outcome will be priced at around +100. Which means if the outcome is half the time exactly, you still lose money. That is the vig. It’s the price you pay above and beyond the projected true odds and it always occurs ok both sides. Just more transparent on a favorite. 👍

I don’t need excuses. Just look at the average QB rating if the different eras

+ lines always have Juice, you're paying the tax in reduction of the total payout, not in an additional cost to place the wager to win even money a normal line would be something like -110 vs +100, if the + team had no juice, they would be +110 or +105 depending on how much vig you pay.

The average QB rating in 1970 = 75.6 1980 = 73.7 1990 = 77.3 2000= 78.1 2010 = 84.1 2020 = 93.6 As an example, Peyton had a 121.1 rating in 2004. The average rating in 2004 82.8, so he was 38.3 points above the average. He was also clocking 90's or higher after basically his first year. I love Josh, but trying to compare his raw stats to Peyton is silly.

So the vig is what 50 cents on that line in that price range? So the actual probability is +600 or 14.29% or if you want a call the vig a buck, +550 at 15.38%. The book wants to split the take, sure, but if that number doesn't match the actual probability once you account for the vig the book would be exposed. Vegas doesn't think KC has much better of a 15% probability to win it all. If you think they have a 20% probability I would place your wager.