Mikie2times

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs. Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows.

I agree, which makes our sub .500 record very damning.

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong).

I don't blame Allen

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

That analysis looks at teams, without consistency of coach and QB and by outcomes of 3 points or less. So if one was to say does a random team with a random coach in a small sample have a likelihood of finishing a game decided by 3 points or less at basically neutral probability? Sure. The 3 points alone almost make it a defacto coin flip. I said 7 or less. Which will make good teams fall more on the right side as history has shown, just not with McD.

Tom doesn't agree. Nor does Pat. In fact, run it man. Your the one who said it. Pat is 33-16 Brady 91-43 Manning is 77-40 Josh has a losing record. Is that Josh or McD? You made the statement so I would think the burden falls on you.

So when we finished 3rd in 2020, 2nd in 2021, and 1st in 2022, did you ever start to wonder if maybe DVOA over ranks us because teams who rank lower always finish higher and we have never actually played to or outplayed our DVOA ranking in the McD era? I wonder if the same goofy stats are impacting our net point differential. It's almost as if we have a chronic history of underplaying data points that generally have a good level of forecast accuracy. Maybe it's because we crush teams, juicing our advanced stats but when it comes down to one on one single games it's a total crap shoot and we default to our .500 record in games decided by 7 or less. I do think it's likely we will see more games decided by 7 or less in the coming weeks given that it's the playoffs and all. I agree with this. We also never play up to our advanced stats like DVOA. Never happened before. So I think that goes back to how we create those advanced stats.

I would say with our consistency issues it's certainly debatable how "good" we actually are. It's not like we have a lot of postseason success. All it takes is one inconsistent effort and we are out. I think people get excited about Buffalo based on how average the AFC has been as whole so they think what happens if they "get it together"? Well, what happens if this is just who we are when we have it together? Despite mountains of evidence that suggests that could be the case, people are choosing fairy tales with McD and concepts like Dorsey being the sole reason we can't win close games. The playoffs have been a failure on both sides of the ball and if you want to assign a third side of the ball to coaching, they have been a failure at all three levels. Why is it going to be different? If the answer is people choosing an optimistic path I don't blame them. If the answer is we have some sort of actual data or indicator outside maybe net point differential, I can argue that all day. This narrative of us being dangerous to win it all was created by people, not evidence that we have somehow figured out areas we have been historically awful in.

Game I watched them against Cleveland dude got straight murdered. I don’t know how he finished the game.

Given our sterling history in close games how do you think these chips fall come playoff time?

Good thing white people have you to defend them.

That’s a bit

McD is playing around with Marty as two of only three guys in the SB era above .600 with no AFC championship rings. Is that because of injuries? Does that explain the Bengals? Maybe if Tre played, we wouldn't have ***** ourselves in 13 seconds. Remember the Colts Wild Card game in which we gave up an NFL record in yards and first downs for teams who won a playoff game? I hope it doesn't take Josh Allen staring off into the abyss for another playoff game for you to grab the smelling salt.

We have been insanely loyal, patient, and dedicated for decades. It's not hard to see this is our best chance since the early 90's or maybe MCM. It doesn't reflect impatience to be concerned that chance is being pissed away.

While down a starting center and I believe a few more are shaken up

Off the 49ers Monday night in a game in which they already said they felt disrespected as a dog. Will be a good situational spot for Miami.

Tremaine and him were seen riding bikes before the game

Baker Mayfield not being a bust after 18 teams is pretty fun

Imagine if every poster bumped an accurate prediction? This place would be a disorganized mess. It's hilariously petty to go bumping your own thread and calling out other posters. As if the OP suffered some truma he deserves retribution for as a result of not being wrong. I wonder how many times other posters have called the OP out when he was wrong? Answers probably never because people don't go to that length of being scorned over a internet forum.

One thing I will say about Brady is he did a better job protecting us from ourselves yesterday. It was a very similar game as the Jets opener but we kept running vs going into pure pass mode as we have in the past.

Pretty sure most would take one Super Bowl in a lifetime The defensive trend prior to those additions (post Jags / Pre Eagles) was pushing us ranked closer to last in the league. So yes, they have helped a lot. Prior to the injuries we were top 5. I don't know that we are better on defense than years past. I like our DL better for sure and even if the rest of the defense isn't better, I would almost take a better DL alone.

Agree 100% with all of this. But I just don't look at our team is the type of team that can come out of a group of average teams. People say, well why not us? Well, why not us because we have historical issues winning close games. We have issues winning in OT. We have issues folding late in games. We are wildly inconsistent. We might be capable of the highest top end performance but nothing in this teams DNA suggests to me that we are capable of sustaining a performance that can get us thru 4 playoff games.

I agree, but the Eagles are wildly overrated on defense. Dallas has been consistent in late season melt downs against good teams. If people want to say the Chargers had a good situational spot, the Cowboys had an equally bad one. In the end I tend to not go ham cakes on the SOS variable. We don't need to play against a really good team to go into a shell on offense. We have a pretty good idea of what this defense will do. At the end of the day, it was Bills fans with the help of the national media that created all these narratives about us being a Super Bowl contender. I will just watch the team and expect nothing. As we have no logical reason to expect anything. Brady has show issues adjusting at times. Our passing game is not clicking right now. Our defense is not better than previous years. So I'm not really arguing that we should have done more or less vs the Chargers. I'm arguing more about what have we actually done to justify this hype?

Bills are 4th in EPA offense and 14th in EPA defense in weeks 1-12 Bills are 10th in EPA offense and 11th in EPA defense since the the Eagles games (week 13) Our fan base really wants to assign order to the last few weeks thinking we have turned some "corner". Reality is 3 of the last 4 could have went either way just as the majority of the games played out in weeks 1-12. In this iteration 2 of 3 went our way. Earlier in the year, they didn't. The foundation of our play which is captured by EPA suggests very little has changed.