Mikie2times

Not really mind bending. The Bills are 29-26 when the turnover battle is even or negative and 31-2 when it's positive since 2019.

What do you think our record is with Josh when we lose the turnover battle?

Teams have nearly an 80% win rate when winning the turnover battle but somehow you feel like 1) we are immune to it and 2) you can somehow quantify injuries and coaching to have more impact than something that has been proven to be overwhelming statistically

We are tied for 8th in the NFL in giveaways. We tied for 3rd worst last year. The NFL is still largely about turnover differential. Just because our QB often makes up for it in heroic fashion or other teams are also playing sloppy doesn't change the importance of protecting the ball. Brady seems to be aware especially in these close games that removing passing attempts removes turnover probability. That attitude would have won us the Jets game. Yup, just like the Jets opener.

If he got his moms digits he would be legend

This is how I see it. Orange, I would take over Gabe. Green, is basically two #1's. Red, these teams just don't have legitimate WR cores and they're bad teams. We could say, sure, see, Gabe is better than these, but being better than the worst isn't how we become better. Gabe has an average depth of target and catch% as a result of his ADOT that is among the worst in football. It makes him a one trick pony. If we had the other ingredients like a big body possession WR with a very low ADOT perhaps his profile would balance it out. But we don't have that. Keeping Gabe has prevented us from developing a WR core that is more diverse. It's a big part of what leads to our inconsistency. Perhaps another team will pay for Gabe's skill set. That shouldn't be our concern, he is unquestionably holding us back by being slotted in as a starter which has prevented us from upgrading.

I think the Super Bowl hype is a joke TBH. But then again, so is the entire AFC. Who should we be scared of? Who can't we play with? I'm not saying that because I think we are good, I'm saying that because the competition is horrible.

All you’re measuring is production. He has the deepest average depth of target in the NFL. Which is because he can only run half the route tree. Which means he can only assist our offense in routes past 15 yards. Which makes our offense extremely inconsistent. This isn’t baseball. You can’t just look at a players stat line and not evaluate it as far as how it impacts the rest of the team.

Ughh, no dude. Just because his production rate is above league average for a #2 doesn’t mean he can run an in route. His ability to impact a game is measured more by his ability to threaten a defense which he can only do over the top and no, I don’t want my #2 WR to only be a vertical threat. Your analysis doesn’t factor in multiple things that are relevant.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/stat/receiving/table/receiving/sort/receivingYards/dir/desc This is just total receiving yards on the year and I would be hard pressed to find anybody on that list I'm not taking over Gabe. It's about route running. We can't afford to have our #2 option only running routes downfield. Hell, Shakir is debatable as far as who you take. At least Shakir can run the full tree. Davis is a niche player for us which is why he can just be taken out of games. No thanks.

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs. Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows.

I agree, which makes our sub .500 record very damning.

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong).

I don't blame Allen

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

That analysis looks at teams, without consistency of coach and QB and by outcomes of 3 points or less. So if one was to say does a random team with a random coach in a small sample have a likelihood of finishing a game decided by 3 points or less at basically neutral probability? Sure. The 3 points alone almost make it a defacto coin flip. I said 7 or less. Which will make good teams fall more on the right side as history has shown, just not with McD.

Tom doesn't agree. Nor does Pat. In fact, run it man. Your the one who said it. Pat is 33-16 Brady 91-43 Manning is 77-40 Josh has a losing record. Is that Josh or McD? You made the statement so I would think the burden falls on you.

So when we finished 3rd in 2020, 2nd in 2021, and 1st in 2022, did you ever start to wonder if maybe DVOA over ranks us because teams who rank lower always finish higher and we have never actually played to or outplayed our DVOA ranking in the McD era? I wonder if the same goofy stats are impacting our net point differential. It's almost as if we have a chronic history of underplaying data points that generally have a good level of forecast accuracy. Maybe it's because we crush teams, juicing our advanced stats but when it comes down to one on one single games it's a total crap shoot and we default to our .500 record in games decided by 7 or less. I do think it's likely we will see more games decided by 7 or less in the coming weeks given that it's the playoffs and all. I agree with this. We also never play up to our advanced stats like DVOA. Never happened before. So I think that goes back to how we create those advanced stats.

I would say with our consistency issues it's certainly debatable how "good" we actually are. It's not like we have a lot of postseason success. All it takes is one inconsistent effort and we are out. I think people get excited about Buffalo based on how average the AFC has been as whole so they think what happens if they "get it together"? Well, what happens if this is just who we are when we have it together? Despite mountains of evidence that suggests that could be the case, people are choosing fairy tales with McD and concepts like Dorsey being the sole reason we can't win close games. The playoffs have been a failure on both sides of the ball and if you want to assign a third side of the ball to coaching, they have been a failure at all three levels. Why is it going to be different? If the answer is people choosing an optimistic path I don't blame them. If the answer is we have some sort of actual data or indicator outside maybe net point differential, I can argue that all day. This narrative of us being dangerous to win it all was created by people, not evidence that we have somehow figured out areas we have been historically awful in.

Game I watched them against Cleveland dude got straight murdered. I don’t know how he finished the game.

Given our sterling history in close games how do you think these chips fall come playoff time?

Good thing white people have you to defend them.

That’s a bit

McD is playing around with Marty as two of only three guys in the SB era above .600 with no AFC championship rings. Is that because of injuries? Does that explain the Bengals? Maybe if Tre played, we wouldn't have ***** ourselves in 13 seconds. Remember the Colts Wild Card game in which we gave up an NFL record in yards and first downs for teams who won a playoff game? I hope it doesn't take Josh Allen staring off into the abyss for another playoff game for you to grab the smelling salt.

We have been insanely loyal, patient, and dedicated for decades. It's not hard to see this is our best chance since the early 90's or maybe MCM. It doesn't reflect impatience to be concerned that chance is being pissed away.