Mikie2times

The 30 second vs 1 minute threshold was just put in place to say, to consider this a blown save the other team needs adequate time to actually threaten you.The scoring threshold was put in place to determine "runners in scoring position" concept. In baseball you only get credit for a save if the other team is actually a threat. So this had to be one score. The time thresholds are arbitrary. We could say instead of 5 minutes, make it 7 minutes. Instead of a minimum 30 seconds for a FG make it 15 seconds. I tried to be on the side of a true blown save. A clear situation where a stop was required and it wasn't made. About 5 instances occurred where a blown save did occur under the time threshold of 30 seconds for a FG and 1 minute for a TD (13 seconds among them). In these rare examples I counted the blown save. As it was even worse in my mind than having adequate time. I did keep that concept uniform. In the other examples in which the save wasn't blown but it was below the time threshold it just wasn't counted at all. Hope that makes sense. As I plowed into this I had to keep creating nuances to account for the various situations.

For sure. Again, the aggregate was really the only reason I have the team totals. I knew I would run multiple seasons against Buffalo to compare against the aggregate. As for observations with some of the other teams. -The 49ers just haven't been in close games. Only one trial. -The Ravens are a team I would be interested in maybe seeing more. If you recall, they blew like a 20 point lead to us in 2021 I believe. They blew a Wild Card lead to the Bengals last year. I think they might have some chronic issues if we go further back. -Green Bay, Seattle, Titans, Eagles, Chargers I have some curiosity. It would be nice to know who is the low in this sample over a few years and if any teams show patterns. I would think the Chargers would. - Pittsburgh, Tomlin has always had this magical ability to get the most out of his guys. Is this it? What is the driver? Closers on defense? Does this stretch multiple seasons?

Payton was going to keep pushing Russ until he either broke or pushed back. I don't think he cares about a "G Golly Willikers" middle of the road QB's feelings. While he is kind of a complete a-hole I don't know if that was the wrong approach. I think he wanted something at the position as far as leadership. He certainly wanted something as far as performance. Given Russ's contract I think his goal was to make sure he got both and he wasn't afraid to push for that outcome. Again, sort of an a-hole, but some people will push and grow from it.

For sure. The Hall is no longer that level of pedigree and it really should be. I would much rather see smaller classes and higher pedigree but that doesn't really pass the sex appeal test.

My general thought is McD being the common denominator. Being a defensive based HC, I think it's fair to roll this to him. If not, probably fair to roll it to the people he had in charge and then roll it to him. I stated from the outset, no perfect way to do this, but if you want to know how many times we had a lead under 5 minutes and lost that lead, this would probably be the way to do it. I would think......

It was 2 blown saves. One on the Tyreek TD and one on the FG for OT. KC also had 2 blown saves in that game. It was the only game I saw out of all of them that had 4 blown saves.

No Ricky Waters? Fix is in.

So what narrative do you buy into? 13 seconds actually did mean something? Just randomness and no worries? Something else?

That was a horrifying request. The mind really does forget some of those. 2019 was pretty good, but that was the Houston game. Below average still. but the sub 40% was damning. Sort of interesting how this years team has put him in so many of these spots. The most of any year in his career and double most years. This includes the playoffs.

The sample size is 19 from 2000 on and 141 in 2023 so far. If you want me to add other years that's fine. I went with 2020 because most people make sure you don't include non prime Allen years for any Bills analysis.

How does Buffalo perform? How does everybody else perform. I didn't care so much about how each individual team performed. I was looking for the aggregate. Buffalo has 19 samples. Everybody else has 141 samples. It's likely pretty safe to say the NFL average will fall between 50-55%. As that sample is decent in size and that % is somewhat logical. As for Buffalo, it is what it is right now. It's like W/L. 19 isn't enough to say forever but it's more than a full year of games which we find relevant.

While I don't disagree, we could say the same thing about wins and losses

What motivated this was the desire to quantify the late game collapses. We all talk about how we struggle to close out games but then I wonder what is normal? What is struggling? I hate that we don’t have context. Even with advanced analytics very little is available. So while not perfect, this is my first swing at such a stat. I looked at this the same way baseball looks at closing out games. I did not care about the outcome, only if a lead was lost and when it was lost. This was the criteria I used (understandably imperfect). 1. Did the qualifying team have a one possession lead (8 points or less) in the game with 5 minutes or less or in OT => IF YES go to criteria 2 2. Did the opponent have a chance to possess the ball in the final 5 minutes => IF YES go to criteria 3 3. Did the opponent have at least 30 seconds down by 3 points or less or 1 minute down by a max of 8 points when they possessed the ball? If YES the situation qualifies for a SAVE You can’t get a Save for protecting or blowing a tie. It's just like baseball, you can only have a qualifying save opportunity by protecting a lead that meets this criteria. You can also qualify for multiple saves in one game (this was rare, but Buffalo has done this a few times). As quick example of one, the Eagles had a qualifying save opportunity on our final drive of regulation. They had the lead, it met the criteria outlined. They blew the save when Gabe Davis scored his TD with 1:52 left. Since that score then gave Buffalo a lead, the Bills proceeded to blow a save when the Eagles tied the game at the end of regulation. The other team does not have to take the lead, they can tie game to blow a save, you just have to lose the lead. The Bills then blew another Save in OT as they again had the lead only to allow a game winning score. This one game resulted in 3 Blown saves. 2 for Buffalo and 1 for the Eagles. While more than 1 blows save per game is rare, it can happen. It's the NFL. Edited* I was asked to include seasons prior to 2020, so now this includes those seasons, editing to reflect that The Bills results are as follows: 2017: 2 of 3 66% Save Rate 2018: 1 of 4 25% Save Rate 2019: 4 of 7 57% Save Rates 2020: 2 for 4 50% Save Rate 2021: 0 for 3 0% Save Rate 2022: 2 for 4 50% Save Rate 2023: 3 for 8 37.5% Save Rate Total: 14 for 33 42.4% Save Rate So if you're saying, hey, does that mean if we have an 8 point lead or less under 5 minutes and our opponent touches the ball we will preserve that lead 42.4% of the time? Yes. That's what it means. Below is all of 2023 by team, please jeep in mind the 2023 summary is more for the aggregate to compare against us. The individual team data is just what comes with it. Removing Buffalo, the NFL average is 51.7% on 141 save chances in 2023. Which seems low, but again, you can have two blown saves in a game. You can't have two successful saves. This is stack ranked best to worst. Some interesting teams in here but more data is required. Click on the image to enlarge it.

I was joking about his agent. He looks like a caricature

On No, I'm not important again

We entered the season with clear goals and clear concerns. In the category of key goals was an AFC Championship and perhaps more. Playoffs were assumed and nearly laughed at when people said that could be at risk. Key concerns was winning close games. Better game management. Better defensive performance in late games and as a whole. The Taylor Dunne piece and Dorsey firing changed everything. Now a three game win streak in the regular season and a possible playoff birth has people talking about how an early playoff exit isn't even a failure. How we have overcome adversity to get here. Bla Bla Bla. We created the adversity in getting here. We have only added more questions to the key concerns. I don't understand how the goal posts have shifted this much. We have one of the best QB's on the planet, a pretty decent roster, and a horrible conference to work with and our base is happy with a wild card. We will see how this goes. If it's anything like the past I will probably take a break from posting if the same people want to justify it.

I think Dungy is a very accurate comparison. Always have. Even focuses on a similar defensive concept. Ironically, Caldwell, a JAG HC went to a SB the first year he was gone. Then the same thing in Tampa. Nobody would say Dungy wasn't a good coach but he captures the argumenty perfectly. How did those Colts only manage one Super Bowl? Which we can get into. Manning in the playoffs, the Patriots, etc. But I would say Allen and McD actually have a more favorable landscape. Brady and the Patriots were more daunting than Mahomes and KC. Thinking about Dungy just makes me want McD out even more. He's just enough, just like Dungy always was. Just enough is probably more dangerous than bad. Just enough to lose a lot of time.

Matt LaFleur and Marty are the two others.

I went ahead and paid Tony. If it acts up again hit me up on my beepa

100% agree with this. I've never been impressed with Lamar. He can't throw in rhythm and eventually that will get you in trouble.

As it stands McD is one of 3 coaches in the Super Bowl era who has a .600 or better regular season record and no conference championship. He is 4-5 in the playoffs. 4-4 with Allen. Reid is 11-3 with 3 AFC Championships and two Super Bowls with Mahomes. One is trending toward Marty and the other is trending toward football immortality. Comparing the two is just lazy to be honest. Unless you want to compare Philadelphia Andy Reid, but even then he got an NFC championship in his 6th season.

Not new, stil d-bagery.

Agreed. But I would really not like to have 2 HOF QB's and no rings.

Slow down Chris. Strippers are entertaining.