Mikie2times

While I don't disagree, we could say the same thing about wins and losses

What motivated this was the desire to quantify the late game collapses. We all talk about how we struggle to close out games but then I wonder what is normal? What is struggling? I hate that we don’t have context. Even with advanced analytics very little is available. So while not perfect, this is my first swing at such a stat. I looked at this the same way baseball looks at closing out games. I did not care about the outcome, only if a lead was lost and when it was lost. This was the criteria I used (understandably imperfect). 1. Did the qualifying team have a one possession lead (8 points or less) in the game with 5 minutes or less or in OT => IF YES go to criteria 2 2. Did the opponent have a chance to possess the ball in the final 5 minutes => IF YES go to criteria 3 3. Did the opponent have at least 30 seconds down by 3 points or less or 1 minute down by a max of 8 points when they possessed the ball? If YES the situation qualifies for a SAVE You can’t get a Save for protecting or blowing a tie. It's just like baseball, you can only have a qualifying save opportunity by protecting a lead that meets this criteria. You can also qualify for multiple saves in one game (this was rare, but Buffalo has done this a few times). As quick example of one, the Eagles had a qualifying save opportunity on our final drive of regulation. They had the lead, it met the criteria outlined. They blew the save when Gabe Davis scored his TD with 1:52 left. Since that score then gave Buffalo a lead, the Bills proceeded to blow a save when the Eagles tied the game at the end of regulation. The other team does not have to take the lead, they can tie game to blow a save, you just have to lose the lead. The Bills then blew another Save in OT as they again had the lead only to allow a game winning score. This one game resulted in 3 Blown saves. 2 for Buffalo and 1 for the Eagles. While more than 1 blows save per game is rare, it can happen. It's the NFL. Edited* I was asked to include seasons prior to 2020, so now this includes those seasons, editing to reflect that The Bills results are as follows: 2017: 2 of 3 66% Save Rate 2018: 1 of 4 25% Save Rate 2019: 4 of 7 57% Save Rates 2020: 2 for 4 50% Save Rate 2021: 0 for 3 0% Save Rate 2022: 2 for 4 50% Save Rate 2023: 3 for 8 37.5% Save Rate Total: 14 for 33 42.4% Save Rate So if you're saying, hey, does that mean if we have an 8 point lead or less under 5 minutes and our opponent touches the ball we will preserve that lead 42.4% of the time? Yes. That's what it means. Below is all of 2023 by team, please jeep in mind the 2023 summary is more for the aggregate to compare against us. The individual team data is just what comes with it. Removing Buffalo, the NFL average is 51.7% on 141 save chances in 2023. Which seems low, but again, you can have two blown saves in a game. You can't have two successful saves. This is stack ranked best to worst. Some interesting teams in here but more data is required. Click on the image to enlarge it.

I was joking about his agent. He looks like a caricature

On No, I'm not important again

We entered the season with clear goals and clear concerns. In the category of key goals was an AFC Championship and perhaps more. Playoffs were assumed and nearly laughed at when people said that could be at risk. Key concerns was winning close games. Better game management. Better defensive performance in late games and as a whole. The Taylor Dunne piece and Dorsey firing changed everything. Now a three game win streak in the regular season and a possible playoff birth has people talking about how an early playoff exit isn't even a failure. How we have overcome adversity to get here. Bla Bla Bla. We created the adversity in getting here. We have only added more questions to the key concerns. I don't understand how the goal posts have shifted this much. We have one of the best QB's on the planet, a pretty decent roster, and a horrible conference to work with and our base is happy with a wild card. We will see how this goes. If it's anything like the past I will probably take a break from posting if the same people want to justify it.

I think Dungy is a very accurate comparison. Always have. Even focuses on a similar defensive concept. Ironically, Caldwell, a JAG HC went to a SB the first year he was gone. Then the same thing in Tampa. Nobody would say Dungy wasn't a good coach but he captures the argumenty perfectly. How did those Colts only manage one Super Bowl? Which we can get into. Manning in the playoffs, the Patriots, etc. But I would say Allen and McD actually have a more favorable landscape. Brady and the Patriots were more daunting than Mahomes and KC. Thinking about Dungy just makes me want McD out even more. He's just enough, just like Dungy always was. Just enough is probably more dangerous than bad. Just enough to lose a lot of time.

Matt LaFleur and Marty are the two others.

I went ahead and paid Tony. If it acts up again hit me up on my beepa

100% agree with this. I've never been impressed with Lamar. He can't throw in rhythm and eventually that will get you in trouble.

As it stands McD is one of 3 coaches in the Super Bowl era who has a .600 or better regular season record and no conference championship. He is 4-5 in the playoffs. 4-4 with Allen. Reid is 11-3 with 3 AFC Championships and two Super Bowls with Mahomes. One is trending toward Marty and the other is trending toward football immortality. Comparing the two is just lazy to be honest. Unless you want to compare Philadelphia Andy Reid, but even then he got an NFC championship in his 6th season.

Not new, stil d-bagery.

Agreed. But I would really not like to have 2 HOF QB's and no rings.

Slow down Chris. Strippers are entertaining.

Stud

The 49ers have multiple turnovers in scoring position and it had no impact on the game. Got it. Holy crap.

Its Shtick

It is now blasphemy to say Mahomes is better, have fun with this.

Waddle runs a mallard rescue in the offseason

So, looks like we might see a flat Ravens squad take on Miami

Causation / Correlation, as you have tried to use about 8 times would mean that in the process of winning, one of those outcomes would be more likely to increase or decrease which would limit our ability to view that data independently. As an example, TD's or rushing attempts. But when it comes to turnovers, it is completely independent of points. It is also not influenced by points such as the case with rushing attempts. It is largely independent which is why it is viewed as the holy grail by anybody with an understanding of the game. As I said earlier, the Bills are 29-26 when they're even or worse in the turnover battle. They're 31-2 when they have a +1 or better. So again, it would REALLY seem to matter to this team how they fair in the turnover battle. Other things do matter, yes, nobody said this was the only thing that mattered. But it's probably the most correlated data point to winning % in the NFL.

Christmas is ruined

We seem to have the fishes number but Cleveland or Baltimore will put us in a Broncos, Chargers, Jets style game. More confident against Baltimore just based on historic success against Lamar despite knowing he is in a new system. We do well against mobile QB's. It's sort of funny, top down, I really don't fear anybody but all of them will put us in a FG game it would seem.

Really not a fan. I get frustrated at Josh sometimes for being off schedule. Lamar doesn't have a schedule.