Mikie2times

He watches others go to parties

That is wild. It’s crazy to say the least, especially with all the big 4 leagues pushing it so hard. I’ve always dabbled and for most my life it was something I just didn’t discuss because so few people understood any of it. Now it’s just standard recreation for many. But this peer to peer stuff is way out there. I remember before the offshores were basically banned, we had some peer to peer places get shut down in the US. Then they just disappeared. That followed the sports books lobbying for almost a decade to get it legal. Then they finally start winning at the state level. But now even Robinhood is offering straight spreads and totals in all 52 states saying they don’t need any betting licenses because they aren’t a bookie. Hard to imagine this is sustainable.

I think you’re largely right. My view is pretty simple, who would I in the playoffs? The underperforming Bills, Chiefs, or Ravens or the over performing Broncos, Colts, Jaguars, or Patriots? It’s really not close from my view. The historical cream of the crop is still the cream of the crop in a single game elimination.

For this team, I thought the vision of complimentary football was better in the first build. I’m happy we want a more consistent running game, but the entire defensive system is meant for defending the pass. We have barely cared at any point over fortifying our run defense. So to me, complimentary would be less ball control, developing an offense that is more dangerous and explosive enough to more routinely force teams to be one dimensional on offense, and into more passing situations. Which we saw a lot in the first build. Which is what our defense is designed for. We seem to run counter this, shortening the game, trying to win low possession games, higher variance events like turnover margin. Which has not gone well this year. We have the foundation to really build an elite offense, yet even if we did, it seems like we want to focus on being ball control. I really don’t get it to be honest. This team has lost its way from my perspective.

Kalshi has wager options on virtually anything you can think of and even offers spread and total betting. Since it’s peer to peer, no state regulations like Fanduel or DraftKings etc. It’s pretty wild to see how betting has changed over the last 5 years.

Your posts are old and not what they once were

By all means

So before the start of 2024, we lose Diggs. We draft a guy that is universally regarded as having separation issues that is discussed as being better off in the slot. We sign a middle tier FA, whose history is better off in the slot. We call it good, watch the team struggle in the first half of the season. Trade for Cooper. The following offseason, we sign a middle tier FA. We don't add anybody else. We triple down how good we are. We watch the team struggle the first half of the year. We can't make a trade. Then we sign a middle tier FA. Beane, you suck. Who cares when it's against the scrubs of the world.

You might even say Greg Rousseau is sneaky good.

This team needs to get sacks from somewhere right? Actually putting an offense in a long situation is meaningful in this game? A sack itself is one of the biggest negative EPA events an offense has short of a holding call or turnover. He is not a bad player, I'm not suggesting that. But he will be the highest paid DE on this team for the foreseeable future and is representative of how this team invests as a whole. We won't get splash plays, sacks, and turnovers from his contributions. We will get sound football. I think it's fair to ask more for the investment.

It's crazy to expect a top 20 DE to have one year with 10 or more sacks or generate even 5 sacks this year? Give me a break. It's like everything else with this team. "our offense is going to be sneaky good" "We have quietly improved the WR room" "This player is actually good, but he doesn't do what other good players do at his position" Nothing with this team just is. At the end of the day a top 20 DE needs to generate sacks. Not almost sacks, actual sacks. He needs to make splash plays. If you have to ask the question if a player is making an impact, he's not.

Agree, oddly, I give Buffalo a better chance of winning straight up in a playoff game. But I give New England more of a chance at making that sort of improbable run.

I would say the Bills and Patriots are equally overrated

Brandon Beanes mentor Dave Gettleman said "Hurt guys get hurt". Maybe he should have listened a bit more to his mentor vs assuming he can defy the laws of cheap NFL labor. Our roster is littered with players that have an injury history and we have no aversion to extending these players or slotting them as starters with no considerable depth options. Bernard, Benford, Bosa, Rapp, Milano, Jones, White, Taron Johnson. It's practically the entire defense and extends multiple years for many of these guys. So is our luck really that bad or is our roster building that impractical? Should we assume we got a "deal" or should we assume we actually got the going rate because other teams properly value this?

No team survives this much of a delta with DVOA. You seem realistic, this isn't a Super Bowl caliber team. They could keep improving relative to the output that generated these rankings as they're still young. But in all likelihood they're getting bounced in one playoff game. If Buffalo played at New England today we would be favored and I don't think we are even that strong. It would be Buffalo -3 if not -4 on the road.

They rank 17th in DVOA. It's a fringe wild card team masquerading as an actual contender. The fall will be violent.

It would seem our biggest vulnerability is a very physical defense, aggressive DL. What we basically saw against Atlanta and Houston. The good news is, it’s very possible we won’t see that type of defensive play up front until a Super Bowl appearance. The AFC is just overflowing with pretenders. Take your pick, Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Steelers, Colts. Can we lose to these teams? Sure. But I would probably prefer this iteration of the Bills vs these teams than the last few years vs peak KC. We don’t necessarily need to figure it out to make a run here or even be the best version of our selves.

You’re completely delusional if you think this team is capable of getting hot in the postseason, when it gets harder. We have based on EPA the highest regression in postseason performance vs regular season performance of any team in a three year period as far back as it registers. The Giants were loaded. They were potentially great teams that just didn’t gel at first. Buffalo does not have a potentially great team with this roster. Not any history of big performance in big games.

Houston was about to beat down the Broncos when Stroud got hurt. They could just as easily be fighting for the #1 seed. That really doesn't change anything from my perspective with Stroud out.

I take it you haven't been following the 49ers

it's a violent game. It requires dogs and loose wires. The best teams create a culture that can absorb these types and not splinter from it. We aren't that type of org. This team has no edge. The two guys that gave us the most of that edge were Diggs and Hollins.

This was Beanes main job in Carolina, so I'm sure he's pretty close to it

Beane looks at players in a vacuum. If we sign this player now, it has to be cheaper than if we sign them when his contract is up. But he never factors in how common it is for a player to regress when they get paid or how much extra juice you tend to get in a contract year. I wish he would just let most of these guys play out the deals, get the additional information, and then make a decision.

We will win out until the Eagles game, which is 50/50 and the Jets game is a bit unknown based on what we need at that time. But we will win the next 4 and everybody will forget we are still a very flawed team. We will get back to Super Bowl expectations and you know what happens next. The thing about this regime is they produce very predictable outcomes.

Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Kelsey, Poz, Stroud, Whitner, Kyle, McGee, Schobel. I mean I just picked one random year. Forget about the Takeo years or the Mario years. We have had more talent in the drought years multiple times and for long stretches. We just didn’t have a quarterback.