Mikie2times

I rank the risk of them higher than anybody outside of Houston. They're the most complete AFC team.

I posted recently about the PPG disparity and was hoping to drill down a bit more and it's even crazier than I thought. Below is since week 8, randomly selected as the halfway point. First column is EPA defense for the whole game. Bills rank 17th. Second column is 1st half defensive EPA. Bills rank 26th. Third column is 2nd half defensive EPA. Bills rank 1st. Last column is the largest variance between first and second half defense. The higher the number, the worse the variance is in the 2nd half compared to the first half. The lower the number, the better. Buffalo is double the next closest one in Arizona, with Arizona only being that low because they're usually are out of the game by then. Hard to understand information like this. On one hand we show the ability to be among the leagues best in the 2nd half and on another we can't get off the field in the 1st.

These comments can stand alone as pretty horrendous coming from the White House. So can the various Kirk comments and past situations. All of it can be bad and it is. Better in these situations to have a president take the high ground and not provoke more of this divide but he would rather generate these types of threads because it keeps him the news cycle. Don’t feed him.

I don't believe this game matters in the division. In fact, we probably want the Pats to win just to help Pittsburgh. We are tied conference record with NE and trail by one game in divisional. So we need them to lose either to the Jets or Dolphins. As you call out the Dolphins can certainly beat them. Last 5 games the Dolphins are a top 5 EPA net team. They rank 20th to NE's 17th in DVOA. It's not a long shot by any stretch.

I’m a little concerned the prize for winning the division might be Houston. It would almost seem like playing away at Pittsburgh would be favorable to that outcome

Pats HC knows

https://fb.watch/D-8-Uh9EH7/?mibextid=wwXIfr&fs=e So good

I can’t make sense out of it. I mean, New England was out of the bye so I imagine they had some wrinkles. But it’s not just this game and we are straight up dominating second half’s. The rush is getting home, lots of three and outs, no running game. Some of the best defense in the McD era. First half is literally the complete opposite.

We are playing at a level in the 2nd half that would make us the best defense in football over the last 5 games. In the same period we have allowed 92 1st half points, which would be among the worst in football. This trend only seems to be growing more noticeable. Pretty wild variance in performance by the defense.

We have never been outside the Top 5 with Allen, with three different guys and various talent levels. For me the debate ends when I consider how he would use an elite weapon outside. I don’t think he would lean into that. Which I think is something you need to do well to be an elite Coordinator. So much of this is Allen hiding warts. Hands down we go 0-2 the last two weeks if it wasn’t for only Allen TD’s. The laser to Knox this week, multiple scores last week. At the end of the day I see the potential for this offense with the right pieces to overwhelm the league and be virtually unstoppable. So I ask myself would he be the guy to try and orchestrate that and I think it’s a no for me.

Drought era had plenty of rosters stronger than this one, they just never had a QB

Holy F the rumor is it’s him. Talk about home run if it’s true.

Well for starters we are favorites on the road Sunday vs one of the top seeds. We were -5.5 point on the road vs Houston. Mind you, before they got hot and with a back up QB, but at most we are even money in that game. It's possible we would be +1 vs Denver, but I would even expect that to go to even before kick. It's just the reality man. I'm saying what the odds will be because I'm into that. If you agree or not is another story. I largely agree. But with that it's not easy to win 3 in a row to get to the Super Bowl with largely 50/50 outcomes. Even three 60% outcomes is a 22% likelihood. So it's a long road, even if the worst we see is a toss up.

+