Backintheday544

I was using 270 to wins outlook. Yes, House polls are usually not as reliable since it’s harder to get a good sample, but you can still get a good idea of the electorate with how polarizing things are now. I will give you that Trump not getting say +7 and winning the House is more likely than say Trump winning NY.

at least he wants to count all the votes, unlike the Republicans in Texas that keep trying to get over 100,000 votes disallowed. everyone should read the WaPo article by a Republican election lawyer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/01/ben-ginsberg-voter-suppression-republicans/ Trump has enlisted a compliant Republican Party in this shameful effort. The Trump campaign and Republican entities engaged in more than 40 voting and ballot court cases around the country this year. In exactly none — zero — are they trying to make it easier for citizens to vote. In many, they are seeking to erect barriers.

Theres 216 house seats that are rated as Strong Dem or Likely Dem. For the Republicans to take the house, they would need to win all the seats leaning Dem and some of the seats that are likely Dem. In order to do that, you’ll need to see Republicans come strong, which would correlate in a large Trump popular vote.

This is huge! Beto only lost by 200,000 votes. Getting these votes to count could help! This went through a Republican judiciary system and a Conservative judge at the Federal level!

Real Clear Politics has Dems picking up 10-15 seats in the House in their final projection. As of 10/28 have Biden with 290 before toss ups.

World leaders have openly mocked Trump: I’m more fearful for our safety because Trump tweets something stupid and he’s already hurt our standing with long time allies. Democrats have traditionally seen better GDP growth than Republicans:

My prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DQxD2 380-158. Dems keep House. Senate is 51-49. Warnock doesn’t get enough votes to prevent a GA runoff.

From my map, worst case scenario is FL, TX, MI, GA go Red. Biden still gets 281.

We have a two party system. I feel both suck, I wanted Corey Booker. However, since I have to pick between 2 bumbling dementia ridden old men, I prefer Biden. Every thing I’ve heard Republicans say about Biden can be said about Trump. Plus if either passed due to old age, I’d much rather have Harris running the country than Pence.

Trump would need to win the popular vote by 4 or 5 points for the House to be in play. That’s not happening. NY and CA are strongly blue and those will not be close.

My prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DQxD2 380-158. I think the early voting in Texas is going to be enough to get Biden Texas. on the fence with GA. NC/OH go Trump. can we FL going red too but I think Biden has it with the non-Cuban Hispanic voters and the gap he’s closed on the elderly.

That’s the paper the 700 figure comes from that the news is reporting.

here’s the study: https://sebotero.github.io/papers/COVIDrallies_10_30_2000.pdf

So you’re saying that the Republicans choice for President doesn’t matter. This is about how bad the Dems pick. So if the Dems picked good, good for them. If they picked bad, then it’s their fault Trump won. He sucks they should have picked better. that’s the argument I’m getting from you with this.

Don’t preach to me. The judge on this is every American. This election is a referendum of Trump. Per them (based on polls) Trump failed. Trump lied and 225,000+ died. Trump even caught COVID due to his disregarded. 700+ have died due to attending Trump rallies.

The current President has a Chinese bank account and business dealings in China. So let’s throw him out Tuesday!

Trump lied, people died. I was always taught leadership sets the example. Where is the US if our President wore a mask when it CDC said to? Where is our country if Trump says look this is serious (as he said in the Woodward interview) instead of saying it will disappear. As you said, Trump knew no matter what it’ll hurt his re-election. He tried to downplay it to help his re-election instead of doing what’s best for the country even if it would hurt him politically. bet you’re wishing your party actually selected a person that can compete against a guy that has dementia about now! even if Trump wins, we have what 6 months til President Pence. Geeze.

they both are. The right attacks Biden for it, the left mostly ignores it. Dementia Don and Joe. Both parties were terrible at picking candidates. It’s that South Park turd sandwich episode.

you mean because of Trumps handling of the COVID. Trump handles it better it’s not an issue. plus the writing was on the wall with midterms already.

neither would have.

Perhaps the right should have elected someone in the primaries that could beat such a man that may not last 6 months.

Trump never would have taken that shot. He would be too scared. The guy can barely pick up a glass of water with 2 hands. Could he even pick up a basketball? Don’t forget Trump thinks humans have a donate amount of energy so he doesn’t waste it on things like working out or sports.

This thread is getting awesome! Just imagining the Republican standard bearer losing to the person who they think cannot complete a sentence and has dementia. That would be as embarrassing as this years Bills losing to the 0-16 Lions. To lose to such an opponent would definitely be embarrassing for such people and hopefully make them re-inspect their decisions of a candidate.

The right in this thread seem really defensive. They should be. If Texas goes blue (still not favored to), the President will be a Democrat until the Republican Party significantly changes to win back the middle. Worse is if this change isn’t a win back type thing but just a total shift in demographics.