Backintheday544

Thanks! Fixed it.

This should be on every TV station

Didn’t see you complaining about this Palin ad:

You can watch Vance’s story in this movie: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly_Elegy_(film)

If you don't want to beleive 538, then you're welcome to look at a map and polls. Assuming all the normal Dems and Republicans stay, Biden's clearest path to victory is MI, WI, and PA. 538's average of the polls out there is Trump +0.6. (the recent was Trump+3 and a Biden +5) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ WI is Trump +1.3. The ones from July (Trump +1, Trump +2, Trump +2, Biden +3, Biden +2) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ PA is Trump +3.1 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/) Most recent is Trump +7, Trump +3. All within the margin of error.

538 historically has been pretty good. They were one of the few that started calling the sway to Trump in 2016.

Your candidate isn’t even projected to win by 538 right now against a senile geriatric. A chunk of your party are Never Trumpers.

You all promised us lefties a blood bath in 2022. Nothing is pointing to a bloodbath currently.

Feel like Dems are doing pretty good. Even with a disastrous debate and an assassination attempt, 538s algorithm still has Biden winning more than losing. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ When’s the last time the Republicans won a popular vote? Midterms were a huge success for Dems. I think the Dems will be just fine in Nov. (Edit I should note 538 doesn’t take into account the assassination as no polls are out yet post attempt)

And the ones that said he was conservative. Strange none said he was Dem, dem leaning anything. The only Dem thing yall have is a $15 donation to an org he unsubscribed to shortly after:

And his classmates who have come out saying he was very conservative? Dem operatives? I appreciate your concern, but I'm doing just fine. It's important to stay focused on the facts and not let emotions dictate the conversation. Let's discuss the issue at hand constructively and look at actual facts instead of how you feel.

Sorry but I’m not a Republican so you know wasn’t me.

Tell that to the dude who died. Doesn’t mean he’s a Dem. There’s plenty of reasons a Republican gun owner would shoot at Trump. Republicans don’t like pedophiles and a bunch of court documents released with Trump being named a pedo. Republicans like Project 2025 and Trump tried to disavow it. theres plenty of reasons a Republican would be mad at Trump.

Name one thing about him that points to Dem that’s been released so far other than your Feels

I just follow the ideology of Trump, post Iowa school shooting: “It’s just horrible, so surprising to see it here. But have to get over it, we have to move forward,” he added. Plus it’s not me, it’s the news. I don’t control news headlines. And we got Republican in Republican crime if you want to use racist whistles more.

Honestly, probably the best outcome for both parties. This case wasn’t going to be heard before the election due to a Trump appointed judge. This will allow SC to appeal to the 11th circuit who has been pretty critical of Cannon and I’m sure the SC will also request to recuse Cannon from the case. I think, Shoes, shoes where’s my shoes

Does he? Because the news cycle has already moved on from the assassination and it’s not the top story on CNN or Fox News.

He was convicted of 34 felonies and shot?

Why would Republicans do that? This is Republican on Republican crime. They have no one to be mad at but themselves. Dems didn’t riot at the Pelosi assassination attempt and that was Republican on Dem crime. Republicans just listen to people like Rep Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson who just said recently, “Some folks need killing” (he’s a Republican)

Biden never called for the Second Amendment people to stop a political opponent, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-fuels-a-media-furor-again-with-second-amendment-comments-on-clinton.amp “If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.”

Even with that he still wanted to be a conservative. from Daily Beast: A former classmate of the 20-year-old man who tried unsuccessfully to kill former President Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday recalled him being staunchly to the right of the political spectrum. “He definitely was conservative,” Max R. Smith told The Philadelphia Inquirer of Thomas Crooks. “It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate.” Smith shared an American history class with Crooks, and remembered a mock debate where their teacher made students stand on one side of the classroom or another to signal their allegiance. “The majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side,” Smith said. “That’s still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other.” Crooks died in the assassination attempt https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-rally-gunman-thomas-crooks-was-definitely-conservative-classmate-recalls

And a Presidency is 4 years long. If you think Biden is unfit for office today, then assuming a similar cognitive decline, Trump would be unfit for office during his term. Both candidates are too old. But the media seems to be picking up on things like Trump not knowing his son wasn’t married as much. Honestly, the assassination attempt was pretty good for Biden politically as it got the media off the Dems wanting him off the ticket this news cycle. Plus it’s given Biden a couple times to address the public in a controlled environment.

No, I think the Project 2025 message hit pretty hard with voters which is why you saw Trump deny it, which saw some shift in polls. I think you’ve also saw thought leadership change from Biden is senile but so is Trump. Just because Trump was louder at the debate doesn’t mean any words he put together make sense. Both of them argued about their golf score. Trump couldn’t answer a question. Even at his rallies he goes off meandering on crazy old man rants.

I wouldn’t. I’d trust a clear analytical model based on prior polling than people betting with their feels. For example, we saw Trump spike in betting after the debate, but then there was minimal movement on the polls. We’ve seen Trump spike post shooting incident again, but we will need to wait and see how the polls react.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if he’s so far ahead why does 538 have Biden winning 51 percent of the times now? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/