Backintheday544

so it’s a deal? You’ll drop off this board and the snowflake board?

Ok this campaign stop is hilarious:

Wooo Trump finally does a job he’s qualified for.

not when it’s so common place it’s just another Sunday

2000 wants a look at that +4 thars not a fair deal since you have the snowflake board. If there’s a Dem over polling this election, I’ll leave this board. If there’s a Republican over polling this election, you’ll leave this board and the snowflake board.

My liberal job has me watching the game on a liberal Caribbean island so I’m good! let’s go back to your math skills. To calculate the probability of an event happening three times in a row with a 66% chance each time, we multiply the probabilities of each individual event occurring. If the probability of a single event happening is 66%, or 0.66, then the probability of it happening three times in a row is: P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287 So, the probability of it happening three times in a row is approximately 28.7%. So if you’re just looking at bar graphs the odds are actually 28.7 percent, not 70 percent. #learnmathyouconservative

This is a discussion about polling for a presidential election. Ok ok maybe in your mind Trump shouldn’t be talked about since he’s so old and his dementia is showing that it’ll be Vance as President sooner rather than later if Trump wins. Thats fine, you’re correct. At the end of the day, your splitting hairs is saying you want a 66 percent probability to happen (sorry 70 percent is too generous of a round up). When the last 2 draws were in your favor. Thats like flipping a coin 2 times and its heads and saying you know for sure its heads again the third time. Id also say your basic analysis is flawed since people are involved. Here pollsters poll and adjust. The pattern of adjusting shows it takes 2 polls for pollsters to finally over adjust towards Republicans. We’re on our two times over polling Dems so now a the time for the pollsters to over adjust in favor of the Dems. You may be newer here but maybe ask Irv or Bman how that 2022 red wave went the pollsters called for.

Still don’t get you. If you just look at 2000 to 2020 it’s 4 times dem vs 2 times republicans so 66 percent. Not 70. Plus an analysis like that just looks at a single space in time. It doesn’t factor in that Dems were favored the last 2. So if we were to say look at the last 2 and then this one, I’d say we’re due for the Republican to be over sampled. Your selection of 2020-2024 is a smaller data set than 1980-2024. Plus wow, give me an hour and I have you 25+. Plus I’m watching a Bills game. I know it’s not as exciting as your entertainment of watching a elderly man talk about a dead man’s penis size but it’s still entertaining.

Please highlight where you get the 70 percent. here is mine. Look at 1980 and onward. The trend is D fav, D Fav, R fav. It’s plain to see in a visualization of a bar graph, which is what bar graphs are good for, visualizing data and trends. Now please enlighten us on how you think there is a 70 percent change the polls will favor D based on the bar graph posted. Imagine if she went out and talked about a dead golfers dick size:

When does life begin than for you?

When does life begin? at inception? Well Trump supports IVF now apparently. Do you know that process? The eggs get fertilized several become embryos and then they implant. Any embryos not implanted would usually be destroyed. So if you’re voting for Trump you’re voting for someone who supports killing inception embryos. oh Trump not only supports it but he’s the father of it. So he’s the father of killing babies in your definition of when life starts.

He’s not saying it’s wrong he’s saying he’s abandoning it because people like you who don’t understand what a weights poll is bd an unweighted poll are making inaccurate conclusions and it could affect him later: Al it’s been over 25 hours still waiting on the 70 percent calculation that you said was so easy to see from the bar chart. Please and thanks

wait wait what…. I know you’re a disingenuous poster who doesn’t know a ton but for the sake of argument I’m going to assume you agree with this poll, which is Atlas. Atlas released the swing state poll data as well with the national poll. Since you don’t like bad news here it is: That puts the Ec at 269-269. If Trump needs a +3.1 National vote to tie to the EC, he’s screwed. Any EC advantage republicans had would be gone. Dems used to need a 3-4 point PV lead to win the EC, now Trump can’t win the EC at 3.1. Love this poll! Thanks for sharing

May pattern looks at modern day politics for the past 40 years when the pattern emerged. How did you get 70 percent

I disagree. 2016 and 2020 Trump would never have an issue selling out a rally. Empty buildings in 2024 show a lack of enthusiasm for him this time around. Thats a reportable event.

Looking at it I see a clear pattern of DDR from 1980 onward. Maybe if you squint you can see that. My analysis is easy to see with a visual representation of the data. Your 70 percent is now so I’d be happy for you to enlighten me and show me where you got it. Thanks

Went the way of the deranged rhinos. Don’t worry you can probably find him on the MAGA snowflakes safe space message board.

Show your math

The data exactly shows a DDR since 1980. i know we think little of Trumpers intelligence but no Trumper is scared they would lose a job when answering an anonymous poll. Polling has adjusted: - one pollster changed their methodology to count people who said they’re voting for Trump and hanging up after - Currently polls are putting Trump at his 47 percent that he got in 2016 and 2020. prior had him around 43. - pollsters fear being wrong again so over weight Trumpers

This is interesting. Since 1980, polling errors have gone DDR, so favor Dem, favor Dem, favor Republican. 2016 and 2020 were favor Dem. So if this holds, 2024 polling errors will favor Republican

Proof? Would be great to see some of this election fraud that happened so much backed up by actual proof

94 percent of Detroit voters voted Biden in 2020. I’m feeling pretty confident a large chunk are Harris voters. https://detroitmi.gov/sites/detroitmi.localhost/files/2020-11/November 2020 Election Summary Report Signed Copy.pdf

Great vibes in Michigan