Backintheday544

I think another thing being overlooked with the change is it really highlights how dumb Trump is. If Trump never agrees to the debate, Biden is still running and Trump probably easily wins. Trump agrees to the earliest debate in Presidential history and allowed the public to change their mind on Biden. Is this the worst self-inflicted would in a Presidential campaign?

Love that Trump is just giving Harris cheap ads to run:

Great ad or greatest ad of all time?

That R next to his name on the ballot kind of makes it look like it

#partyoffamilyvalues #christianmen

Senate shifting more and more D with Biden gone. Oh - if Kamala wins PA, MI, and WI - she’s president!

kids seem to prefer Clooney:

This is why Republicans are scared:

https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/trump-campaign-rally-charlotte-attracts-fans-early/CKZLF5O4HND37JHWYDKPLIHY7I/?outputType=amp “The Trump campaign says he will talk about inflation and illegal immigration, among other topics during Wednesday’s rally. Tickets were still available Wednesday morning at this link.“ ouch dude can’t sell out in NC.

Thats the Reuters poll, not Marist. Also, looking at Ipsos/Reuters since that's what you're interested in, I actually checked the document myself and did the calculations. It seems their results are actually mathematically adjusting to account for the increased democrats surveyed, i.e. they are actually adjusting the democrat % down to adjust for it and increasing republican % up. So this discrepancy is actually already accounted for in the final result.

You forgot Marist college poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/election-2024-whats-next/ Harris-Trump even with all contenders Trump +1 head to head. Poll July 22, after drop out.

“I like people who weren’t captured” - Trump

Here’s the Democrat Convention By Laws: https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/DNC-Charter-Bylaws-03.12.2022.pdf All Dems know these are the by laws. These laws have not changed. Dems are following the own rules they set forth prior to the election.

Speaking of MAGA bragging. I don’t see anywhere that Trumps team released fundraising numbers after the assassination attempt. The only reason I can think of is they’re not impressive.

There’s several great things going on now and a couple I think are overlooked: 1. Dems wouldn’t have rallied support so fast around Kamala unless internal polling was really good. 2. It’s amazing all the money going to Dems now. Can have a huge factor in this race. 3. It probably comes down to MI-WI-PA. Kamala’s chances there seem great so far. 4. Is this too early in the game to call this the Dems music city miracle? Campaigns are all about momentum and the Republicans just lost all they had.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/kamala-harris-win-with-black-men-fundraising-rcna163280 Kamala with 53,000 person zoom call a day after a 44,000 person zoom call. Raised millions between the two. In 2 zoom calls Trump would need 10 rallies at least to match that out reach. His old age though seems to be hampering that.

Polling has shown age is a concern for Trump to voters. Having a bad VP could be a pretty big drag. Will be interesting to see polls in a week.

That map math is wrong. I just put it in and there's a 13 vote discrepancy in favor of the Republics. The only 13 vote state is VA. So if we switch VA over to Dems like that map says it's 226 to 287. Now this is where Shapiro comes in. I think Shapiro would flip PA. (Dems to 245 vs 268). Then Dems just win WI and MI (which they have historically) and Dems get 270. (MI every year since 1992 except 2016 and WI every year since 1988 except 2016) Thanks for the map! Lots of good news here.

Here's the underlying data: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-07/Reuters Ipsos Post Biden Dropout Poll July 23 2024.pdf Feel free to point out where the sampling error is that you think is there.

Georgia is officially back in play.

I kind of feel bad for him. One person clapped at his joke. This has to give everyone the ick.

Those polls started on the 19th. To quote Nate Silver, we need to wait a 7-10 days to get good data:

https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-fundraising-democrat-president-biden-trump-434a55ea1eb29e5da92cc9b1f9cb401f In 24 hours- $81 million raised by Harris campaign $151 million raised by Future Forward 888,000 grass roots donors 500,000 new donors this cycle insane numbers.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9vYRPdJnv1/?igsh=MTd1Mmtja3ZxZTBjeQ==

Again - no one is saying that. Im saying they can both have dementia and it effect them different.