Backintheday544

Is it time we start considering getting rid of red states to help with this murder problem as well? The red state murder rate was 33% higher than the blue state murder rate in both 2021 and 2022. 2022 was the 23rd consecutive year that murder plagued Trump-voting states at far higher levels than Biden-voting states. 8 out of the 10 states with the highest murder rates in 2022 voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. From 2000 to 2022, the average red state murder rate was 24% higher than the average blue state murder rate. Red states like Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama are America’s murder capitals and have had the highest three murder rates for 15 of the last 23 years. The excuse that sky high red state murder rates are because of their blue cities is without merit. Even after removing the county with the largest city from red states, and not from blue states, red state murder rates were still 20% higher in 2021 and 16% higher in 2022. https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-21st-century-red-state-murder-crisis

Yea so if you’re looking at pure how many people registered republican, than those numbers are trash if you also argue that Dems are registering as Republican to vote Haley. Check the assassination thread, several people mentioned it’s happening a ton when it came out the shooter was a Republican. This year PA also has automatic registration. So people with no desire to vote are registering as well. Will the automatic registration result in higher turn out? I don’t know. We don’t have stats yet in PA. So we can trust the polls when they ask on if they’re likely to vote. But maybe the automatically registration will change how things get weighted… maybe.

PA has closed primaries. Didn’t you say before how all the democrats are switching to Republican in PA due to that in the assassination thread? Id also think the new Rs are lower propensity voters since it looks like the change in trend of PA registrations corresponds with PA making voter registration occur through the DMV.

This is an R+5 district. No wonder the Republican house members had a meeting yesterday.

They think a dog will make him more likeable. He is the least likeable VP pick ever. Hopefully they don’t make him go somewhere with Kristi Noem.

Good nap? It’s ok if you don’t understand logic, analogy or English writing. We all have our faults. To make it clear I’m answering your question: ”Are you denying that MPox is associated with the gay community?” My answer: No. If we want to just cancel gay events, let’s go back to cancelling the RNC: https://www.salon.com/2024/07/20/the-grindr-super-bowl-gay-dating-app-saw-influx-of-users-during-national-convention/ "Grindr executives are calling the RNC convention the Grindr Superbowl."

Wow dude I’m sorry you are so dumb. It must be really hard in life. The poster I was talking to said we should cancel pride month because after there is some kind of pox. I pointed out that we should cancel the GOP convention because hurricanes hit then. Correlation doesn’t imply causation. Just because pox outbreaks happen after pride month doesn’t mean pride causes it. Just because hurricanes happen during GOP conventions doesn’t mean GOP conventions cause them. Now go take your morning nap and let the grown ups talk.

If you were smarter you’d know it’s not a non-sequitur. Its pointing out post hoc, ergo propter hoc dumbass.

Seems like every time the RNC has a convention a hurricane comes. Might be a good idea to stop GOP conventions in the name of public safety. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/27/politics/2020-rnc-hurricane-laura-donald-trump-2012-2008

soldiers are in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead.

JD Vance posing with a news paper that reads Inflation hits its lowest levels. thanks JD!

Greet ad narrated by John Goodman

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-poses-in-bathroom-with-three-girls-at-urinals-in-unearthed-photo JD Vance doesn’t believe in gendered bathrooms. Weird.

Look at vote 2024 Vote Intent columns. unweighted N is 675 Harris, 521 Trump. Total Sample (N) is 1404 so the other votes are for 208. 675 / 1,404 = 48.07 percent 521 / 1,404 = 37.11 percent 208 / 1,404 = 14.14 percent That’s the unweighted results of the poll. The weighted results are 46/44/10. By weighting the poll, the pollster took into account that the number of people who responded most likely doesn’t correlate to how the exit polls will show party break down. Since R was under presented in the sample, the weight add 7 percent to R and dropped 2 percent for D.

Dude - really. Stop spreading dumb person math and think for yourself for once. I'm going to try making this easy for you. Here is the poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf Go to the last page and read their weighing methodology. I will copy and paste it for you: "The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and Presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The weights range from 0.052 to 6.612, with a mean of one and a standard deviation of 0.907" Go to page 9 for the poll referenced above. Notice how they have percentages and then an unweighted N. That +2 Harris is weighted. It is not +2 because N had a +10 Dem lean. The people who do math know the election will not be a +10 Dem lean, so they weight the polls to correspond with how they think the voting will. This poll tells you exactly how that is. 33% Dem/31% Republican/36% other. This is why people like you think polls are wrong or they don't work because you literally have 0 idea how they work.

yup https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-drink-donald-trump-poll-beer-1938456 In 2016, a Rasmussen Reports survey found that 45 percent of likely voters said they would prefer to have a beer with Trump over his Democratic election rival Hillary Clinton (37 percent

More bad news for Trump: even more bad news for Trump: Now now, we know the righties here will say polls don’t matter (even though they loved them a couple months ago), but the best part of this is the July fund raising. Harris is bringing in so much cash. Talk all you want about crowd sizes, but cash is king. Harris has it and now Trump needs to spend it in states he didn’t think he would have to. I mean in June who thought the Trump campaign would have to spend time or money in NC!!!!! so much excellent news this week!

I’d assume Harris since Trumps known to not pay people. Plus she just doubled his fund raising in July so better be her!

This poll has predicted every winner since Bush: