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Harris Team Fact Checked It: Donald Trump’s Very Good, Very Normal Press Conference Split Screen: Joy and Freedom vs. Whatever the Hell That Was Donald Trump took a break from taking a break to put on some pants and host a p̶r̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶f̶e̶r̶e̶n̶c̶e̶ public meltdown. We have a lot to say about it. Here are some initial thoughts – with more to come. He hasn’t campaigned all week. He isn’t going to a single swing state this week. But he sure is mad Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are getting big crowds across the battlegrounds. The facts were hard to track and harder to find in Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago meltdown this afternoon. He lied. He attacked the media. He made excuses for why he’s off the campaign trail. We’re here to help because his staff clearly isn’t. But first, an important reminder on the question Donald didn’t answer: how he will vote on the Florida abortion referendum. (He has been ducking this question since April.) We worked to pin down reality so Donald Trump, bless his heart, doesn’t have to. Here are the facts: We had 12,000 and 15,000 people in Wisconsin and Michigan yesterday, respectively (Not 2,000.) The ABC debate is September 10th. Not the 25th. People have spoken to bigger crowds than Donald Trump. (Obama, Clinton, literally anyone at Lollapalooza, Coachella, the World Cup…) January 6th was decidedly nothing like MLK’s “I Have a Dream” speech. And Trump did not get a bigger crowd than Martin Luther King Jr. on that historic day. There was famously not a “peaceful transfer” of power after the 2020 election, which Donald Trump fought to overturn. (Famously.) Five police officers died because of January 6th. Donald Trump said he was off the trail this week because of the Democratic convention. (That convention is not happening this week.) Trump said they have commercials at a level no one else does. (He is being drastically outspent on the airwaves.) Governor Josh Shapiro is actually a great guy. Project 2025 author Tom Homan, the “father” of Trump’s cruel child separation policy, is not a person to praise. Jewish people should not “have their head examined” for not supporting him. (That’s actually antisemitic.) Trump said he was not complaining. He in fact very much was. Trump does not know the difference between asylum seekers and an insane asylum. Donald Trump does not “cherish” the Constitution. Abortion is not “less of an issue” for voters. It is not “subdued.” It is not a “small issue” for voters, despite how much Donald Trump wants it to be. Donald Trump did not answer the abortion question “very well in the debate.” Everybody did not want Roe v. Wade overturned. The American people do not support states banning abortion. After-birth abortion does not exist. Minnesota and Virginia are not the same. Donald Trump doesn’t know what progressive means. Kamala Harris does not want to take away everyone’s guns. Tim Walz is a gun owner. Vice President Harris does not support an arms embargo on Israel. Donald Trump could not remember Tim Walz’s name. Donald Trump’s tax cuts are not the biggest in history. We don’t know what “the transgender became such a big thing” is supposed to mean. Donald Trump will cut Social Security – just like he proposed every year he was in office. Government was not weaponized against Trump and Steve Bannon. Mail ballots are secure. We agree – Elon IS a different kind of guy. There are no polls that say Donald Trump is going to win in a landslide. The MAGA base is not 75% of the country.

I’ve really like living in VA over Buffalo. ——- Voters: How do you think you can get more black people to vote for you Mr. Trump Trump:

Honestly, he seemed more like he has really bad ADHD. He can't stay on one topic for more than a couple seconds, jumps here to there without a coherent transition. Either way, embarrassing.

Did I hear that right? Trump thinks Chicago invaded Ukraine?

How hasn't anyone commented on Trump comparing his January 6th rally was bigger than the million man march?

Not sure what news he’s sharing…….

Watch it here https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/watch-live-trump-holds-news-conference-at-mar-a-lago

I’m sorry if this is hard for you to understand. The law states: “The products must be available to all menstruating students in restrooms regularly used by students in grades 4 to 12 according to a plan developed by the school” So the law that Walz signed said “menstruating students” get tampons. If you want to argue that Walz is giving tampons to boys under the law, then you have to concede the point that trans people can menstruate. If trans people cannot menstruate, then they cannot get tampons under the law. So what is it? Trans people can menstruate and can get tampons under the law, or trans people cannot menstruate and therefore cannot get tampons under the law. The aliens made Barris say it:

In past elections Kamala would need a +4 nationally to overcome the electoral college advantage Republicans have. This one, probably less likely seeing as PA, WI and MI are either tied or leaning Dem with Harris a +1/+2 nationally, Then yall should have no issue with Walz law: https://www.revisor.mn.gov/bills/text.php?number=HF2497&session_year=2023&session_number=0&version=latest#:~:text=ACCESS TO MENSTRUAL PRODUCTS. A school district or charter school must provide students with access to menstrual products at no charge. The products must be available to all menstruating students in restrooms regularly used by students in grades 4 to 12 according to a plan developed by the school district. For purposes of this section, "menstrual products" means pads, tampons, or other similar products used in connection with the menstrual cycle.

If You actually read the polls, the polls make up for over sampling by weighing the responses to the appropriate sample they think election turn out will be. Most high rated polls have been an even split to reflect the 2020 election exit polls.

Rassmussen got word of the Marquette poll and did a quick poll in 1 day to counter balance that one. Theres a reason aggregators dropped them.

This is probably the most accurate thing said on this message board ever.

Or both are outliers since no poll has Trump winning this month and no their poll has Kamala up that big yet.

Great campaign Trump

This one has to hurt. Harris a +7 when last poll was Trump +3 vs Biden: The survey, conducted by Marquette Law School between July 24 and August 1, shows that when third party candidates are included, Harris leads among likely voters on 50 percent to Trump's 42 percent. Harris has improved the Democrats' position since May, when Trump was leading on 44 percent to Joe Biden's 41 percent. Harris is also leading among registered voters, on 47 percent to Trump's 41 percent. In Marquette Law School's last poll in May, Trump was three points ahead of Biden among registered voters, securing 40 percent of the vote to the president's 37 percent. https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-eight-point-lead-donald-trump-new-poll-presidential-election-1936246 The sampling is 33 percent R, 31 percent D and 28 percent I. 8 percent other) https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/MLSPSC21ToplinesRV_NationalIssues.html

If she’s not appealing to blue collared swing state voters, why are the betting markets putting her ahead in WI, MI, and PA? https://polymarket.com/elections

Poly market is seeing an increase in odds of Vance kicked off: https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-steps-down-as-republican-vp-nominee?tid=1723120227031 Be interesting to see where this goes as the days goes on. Speaking of campaign swag…. Is Trump/Camce doing yard signs? I live in an affluent part of VA so it has a dem bias, but I usually see yard signs. This election cycle I’ve seen 0 Trump signs and a handful of RFK signs.

To be fair, Montana is a battleground state for the Senate. Where the polls are pretty tight with Tester and Sheehy. Montana's senate race could decide the balance of power in the Senate. But winning the Senate means nothing if you don't win the Presidency.

It'll be interesting to watch the betting markets today. He can't be happy Vance had 10 people at his rally when Kamala and Walz had 13,000. He can't be happy he's losing in every statistical and betting market now.

Trump only has 1 campaign event this week. Anyone want to conjecture on the topic of the news conference? He has to be replacing JD right? What other news could Trump announce.

1) I never said a man has a uterus. I said a man can menstruate to need tampons. If you don’t understand that, well I’m sorry you’re uneducated and cant read. 2) Yes, looking at exit polls Trump supporters are historically uneducated compared to people who voted Biden and Clinton. Back on topic and let’s get your opinion - is Trump dropping out? Is Vance being replaced? It’s kind of odd for Trump to call a news conference right? But he is now favored to lose in all the major betting markets. All the poll aggregators have Harris ahead. This is a worse collapse than the Houston Oilers playing Frank Reich.

Is Trump dropping out of the race? is he removing JD Vance from the ticket after 5 people showed up to his rally yesterday? If Trump drops Vance will MAGA be able to afford new merch since they already needed to replace their FJB stuff and are generally poor and uneducated?

Good analaysis. Maybe JD Vance should point that out to the 5 people at his rallies. Did you notice Kamala is now tied with Trump on Pollymarket and way ahead on PredictIt? Stoked for a Harris presidency!!!!