Backintheday544

Doubling down on socialized medicine. ”Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats or independents to say that the statement about fertilized eggs having the same rights as a pregnant woman describes their views extremely or very well. About 4 in 10 Republicans say that compared with about 2 in 10 Democrats and independents” https://apnews.com/article/poll-abortion-ap-ivf-election-3adcb634d5d99d9ebfcc7a28530b1487 So he’s pissing off 40 percent of Republicans by “killing babies”

Harris doing a bus tour in Florida next week!! https://thehill.com/homenews/4855089-harris-bus-tour-eproductive-rights-palm-beach/amp/ Internals must show Florida is in play. You don’t your Florida if you don’t think you have a shot at it. You don’t tour Florida if you’re losing and need to play defense in the rust belt.

Did they decide to get rid of people behind Trump because of all the people looking bored behind him at the other rallies or can he just not find people to come?

RCP has fallen too:

Morning Consult with some fire

I mean if he keeps adopting these leftist communist policies to get elected what’s the difference between him and Biden. I’m just excited though for you to have to live life under Harris.

2017 Trump supported an abortion bad: https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/with-trumps-backing-house-approves-ban-on-abortion-after-20-weeks-of-pregnancy/2017/10/03/95c64786-a86c-11e7-b3aa-c0e2e1d41e38_story.html

Weird for a campaign that’s “winning” to start adopting the left policies. First Trump say he will veto any abortion ban. now he’s adopting socialized medicine for IVF procedures: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804 That’s how you can tell he’s not winning.

I can't find how they weighed it (https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3903). But seems weird if it's weighted with R-D even and rest I, that is Kamala is +4 on party switches (i.e. Trump lost 5% of R, Harris lost 1 percent of D) and that I's are evenly split that Harris is just a +2.

You should watch the beginning of that where the audience loudly boos him: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5130451/jd-vance-booed-firefighters-conference-boston

He went on a tour in 2022 when he was saying the red wave was crap and predicted most of the races accurately.

FL is interesting now. Chris Bouzy who did pretty good at the mid-term projections is saying FL will flip. Main things he's looking at is abortion and Rick Scott on the ballot, change in demographics.

Nate Silver's aggregation has Harris +2 nationally post convention: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model I think looking at all the polls and factoring in MOE, Harris is probably +3,+4 nationally. I'd say it as +1/+2 before the DNC if we're being realistic. Prior elections Dems needed a +4 to win. (it's crazy 20 year olds today have never seen a Republicans President candidate win the popular vote). But I think some of the polling is seeing shifts. Like the latest CA poll for Harris was +20. So if Harris is polling nationally +3 or +4 and only +20 in CA, that means the votes are coming from other states. Biden got 46 percent in TX in 2020 and right now the polling is around 44% for Harris (CA and TX are the two most populous Dem states.

Thoughts about couches and cat ladies. Hilarious that he brags about not using a teleprompter in an obviously scripted part of the rally. B-Man - what’s Julie Kelly’s thoughts on this? You used to post her all the time. Seems like you haven’t in a week or so.

That's your President you're talking about. At least she didn't' reach a deal with RFK to give him a bunch of stuff to end up he can't legally get off the ballots that matter. Now that's just dumb.

Do you know what teacher didn’t have children? Jesus. JD hates Jesus.

Post RFK drop out:

Kamala has a bunch of money. Hopefully she can run some ads in the swing states to remind everyone RFK is on the ballot. This is a bit of a black eye to Trump. This brilliant negotiator gave up a spot in his transition team and in his cabinet in exchange for what? The guys still on the ballots. Argh, he shouldn’t be negotiating with a foreign adversary.

Don’t rub it in while eating your Trump steak.

Only the cool kids play with their Trump trading cards while reading their Trump Bible in their Trump shoes.

Oh good! You got the Trump Team Memo to spread around! Couple reasons this is idiotic 1) you shouldn't rely on polling error to win a race, 2) it doesn't take into account pollsters change methodologies and weighting to make up for past mistakes, 3) it ignores 2022 where all the polls were saying red wave. This forum had a thread that is full of righties tears due to it. 4) just because something happened one year, doesn't mean that issue is present the current year, 5) to doesn't take into account changes in the race from this date to Nov, such as Comey in 2016. An actual interesting poll here: Cook has this race as likely R.

Haven't you heard? Julie Kelly is a communist now.

The people in a state like Kansas went pro-choice, I’m sure FL will. I think the bigger impact is the President and Senate. You have a not well liked FL Senator on the ballot. Abortion will be on everyone’s mind. Will they vote let’s be pro-choice for the amendment and then vote for a not pro-choice President and unpopular Senator?

Not to get lost in Trump yet again disrespecting our troops, the YouGov poll had people associate the candidates with words: When respondents were asked to describe Harris and Trump by choosing from a list of 16 different adjectives — and selecting all that apply — a clear pattern emerged. For Harris, the most frequently chosen words were "focused" (38%), "optimistic" (38%), "honest" (32%) and "normal" (31%). For Trump, they were "dishonest" (43%), "chaotic" (43%), "extreme" (43%), "tough" (40%), "racist" (40%), “weird" (36%) and "divisive" (35%). https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-a-huge-surge-in-democratic-optimism--but-no-big-bounce-for-harris--after-the-dnc-194934515.html