Backintheday544

So a bunch of Republicans don’t like Democrats raising money? lol of this was Trump you’d be screaming lawfare or political persecution. At the end of the day, Dems are out contributing money than Trump. Dems are passing the money to lower tier campaigns, unlike Trump who makes them pay a loyalty fee. Dems have more money because they’re not using the money to defend personal lawsuits against the nominee and the Dems don’t have a chair that uses funds for their singing career. Oh plus Dem supporters aren’t wasting money on things like Trump shoes or Trump NFTs.

Alright, we will toss you into the “feelz” category.

Those are from FEC disclosures……… umm so unless you’re saying their is a violation of the law, then those are real numbers.

Part of your issue if you use your feelz WAY too much when trying to determine what is accurate and what is not. We can check out small campaign donations, pretty easy. You don't need to worry about your feelz. https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race/donald-trump/candidate?id=N00023864 Trumps Small contributions are 31.6% of his funding at $83,467443 Meanwhile Harris has her small contributions of $209,442,720, which is 41.54% of her fund raising: https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race/kamala-harris/candidate?id=N00036915 So.... ummm Harris has $130,000,000 more in small funder raising. So next time you post, maybe get our of your feelz and look up real numbers.

Harris already out spending Trump a ton moved to help lower tiers: Need to get some wins down ballot so we can add DC and Puerto Rico as states and dump the senate fillabuster.

That puts Harris up +3/+4!

What is Trump campaigns plan? Looks like they have NV, MI, WI off the market and going Dem. Why aren't they defending NC with more funds? Either way, Kamala out spending Trump 3 to 1.

Trump pulling out of swing states faster than prostitutes request he pull out:

When asked to do it in the living room, he politely declined as to not offend his ex, the couch.

Maybe that’s why they got bad blood now? When’s the last time they were together?

JD is soooo straight yall.

Harris plus 6 in IPSOS poll. they had Biden +7, so 2.5 off. Using the way Trump unskews polls, Harris is a +3.5 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-abc-news-ipsos-poll-convention-bounce-widens-gap-women/story?id=113246534

From Trump 2024 where I had to explain to you what weighing is. It’s not done easily. Each pollster does it different. With large enough samples they can weigh down to things like age, sex, and other characteristics. In the end it’s all math.

Interesting poll out of NE. Senate is clearly in play. I think they scary thing here for Rs is so many left wing initiatives getting high numbers. SurveyUSA/Split Ticket Nebraska Donald Trump: 54% Kamala Harris: 37% NESen Deb Fischer (R): 39% Dan Osborn (I): 38% (Special) Pete Ricketts (R): 50% Preston Love (D): 33% NE02 results: Donald Trump: 42% Kamala Harris: 47% Don Bacon (R): 40% Tony Vargas (D): 46% Initiatives Right to an abortion until fetal viability Yes: 45% No: 35% Undecided: 21% Prohibit abortion after 1st trimester, with exceptions Yes: 56% No: 29% Undecided: 15% (Where two ballot measures conflict, the one with more votes supersedes the other) Establish paid sick leave Yes: 62% No: 19% Undecided: 19% Legalize medical marijuana Yes: 70% No: 18% Undecided: 12% Allow and regulate business for medical marijuana Yes: 65% No: 23% Undecided: 12% n=1293 RV, 8/23-8/27 (IVR/SMS2Web/Online) https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/31/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found/

You think in a poll a +7 Dem sample where Kamala is +2 means that it took a +7 Dem sample just to get a +2 Harris. You didn't know the polls are weighted to match the expected voting. That's what I'm talking about. As to your other post and why it's asinine, is you don't know if there will be a systematic error in the polling that will be the same as 2016 or 2020. In fact, we can look at 2022 and say the pollsters have probably already over compensated for Dems since all the polls then called for a Red Wave. So, in 2022, we saw a clear systematic error favoring Republicans. Looking at any of the poll data, you can use Rasmussen and Trafalgar if you want, what from their methodology points to correcting the 2022 errors?

Lol when you can actually tell me what weighing a poll means, I'll take what you post seriously. Until then - you're just a right wing idiot that does what the Republicans tell you to do and follow it blindly. Timely post by Nate Silver on the subject: https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump

If we want to look at how Trafalgar did state wide in 2020: Before the 2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 2 points. However, Biden won Arizona by less than 1 point, Georgia by less than 1 point, Michigan by nearly 3 points, Nevada by approximately 2.5 points, and Pennsylvania by approximately 2 points. Using the Right's unskewing of polls here So Michigan they were off by 6. That means Harris up 6. PA they were off 4, so Harris up 2. AZ they were off 4, so Harris up 3 GA off 5, so Harris up 5. NV off 3.5, so Harris up 2.5 That's more in line with the other polls we're seeing as well. Great results today!!! Keep it going Harris

Hell yea!!! Harris in the lead!!! For reference, Trafalgar’s final poll in 2022 for PA Senate was Oz +2 and it ended up being Fetterman +5. Their final poll in 2022 for WI Senate was Johnson +3 and it ended up being Johnson +1. MI didn’t have a Senate election since 2020.

Trafalgar is coming out with some swing state polls today apparently. Harris even or down +2 is good for them. Trafalgar got their Republican butts handed to them in 2022: "Trafalgar's polling numbers were considerably off in the 2022 United States midterm elections.[18] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Adam Laxalt, Blake Masters, Christine Drazan, and Tim Michels would all win.[19] Their polls also suggested that Republican candidates such as Don Bolduc, Lee Zeldin, Mark Ronchetti, Doug Mastriano, Scott Jensen, Heidi Ganahl, Joe O'Dea, and Tiffany Smiley, were within striking distance, but some lost in landslides." This isn't Trafalgar Law we're talking about, and One Piece of advice would be to not give them much weight.

Point out the bounce!

Do you have a citation of Virginia law that would allow Kennedy to be taken off the ballot or is this just your feels?

Hahahaha I’m dying I’m dying. so weird https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113048930902364859 Plus that universe was an overwhelming failure.

I’ll take that Harris win.

Trumps favorite polling company came out with Trump +2. Using the right wings in skewing polls, Ras had 2020 as Biden +1. It ended Biden +4.5. so Kamala is up 1.5 in this poll: Ras is even starting to see the shift: