Backintheday544

In the football world this is like saying Joe Flacco was a better QB than Jim Kelly because he has more passing yards. 2016 is like 1950s NFL 2020 is like 1990s NFL 2024 is like 2020s NFL. Each years have different rules which make them not comparable. You can’t compare a 1980s QB to a 2024 QB based on just passing yards because of how the league shifted to more passer friendly. Same with the pols. Each year the pollsters use different “weights” to try and adjust to what they think the electorate will look like. With 2022 they over shifted to the right and the red wave turned into a blue win. The fact is we don’t know what the weighting error will be in 2024 but we know pollsters are adjusting. They could just have easily adjusted to over weighting Republican groups than Democrat groups. In the end, we won’t know until the election, but for right now this chart means poop. Good article on the change in weighting: “Levy told me that, in 2020, the people working the phones for Siena frequently reported incidents of being yelled at by mistrustful Trump supporters. “In plain English, it was not uncommon for someone to say, ‘I’m voting for Trump—***** you,’” and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey, he said. (So much for the “shy Trump voter” hypothesis.) In 2020, those responses weren’t counted. This time around, they are. Levy told me that including these “partials” in 2020 would have erased nearly half of Siena’s error rate” https://archive.ph/xq9Pz

Another crazy red state! Missouri from Emerson: Trump 55.2, Harris 43.4 (Trump+11.8) Interestingly, this is an ~4.5 point swing towards Harris compared to 2020, which lines up almost exactly with the Selzer poll of neighboring Iowa. and after the plus 8 we get a huge sample with +6!!!

Not just learn anything new but totally ignore anything that doesn’t agree with them. Several post how they block liberal posters as a badge of honor. It’s not. It’s a badge of the ignorance the right has become.

Atlas got absolutely smoked in 2022. Almost every race wrong. WALKER beating Warnok by 3.6! lol. Plus none of the data in that poll makes sense. Only poll ever to have Vance more favorable than Walz. Had men saying Harris won the debate, women saying Trump won. Harris only +2 on reproductive rights. Rasmussen and Trafalgar aren’t close to that number. Throw it in the outlier pile.

One of the best pollsters

Harris with a +8

To fact check bills fan. the moderator said “There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born“ Killing a baby after it’s born is homicide and not legal anywhere. The moderators in fact did not lie.

Americans are just sick of all this chaos. This Google trend is the most telling Trump is done for: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 3-m&geo=US&q=Trump donation&hl=en After the first attempt there was a huge surge in people Google Trump donations. Barely a blip after this one. Momentum is dead for MAGA

The only polls you see go Trump in NC now are partisan R polls. I think Harris will end +2 in NC. I wonder if we see a polling error this year. Looking at cross tabs on polls they seem to have their finger on the R button a little bit more or at least towards the non-traditional Dem groups. We could see a polling error like we did in 2022. If thats the case, then it won’t be close.

Another red state poll with large margins swinging Harris: Was +10 Trump last election. If we’re seeing 5-10 point swings in red states, you know that swing is happening in red counties of swing states. It’s also nice in these red states we’re not getting these R polls skewing data. So we know it’s probably a bit more accurate. I’ve seen enough, calling this one for Harris unless something crazy happens like the Comey letter in 2016.

Pokymarket moved 1 point over night. Everyone knows it’ll have no election effect. Trivia: last presidential candidate to survive 2 assassination attempts, lost.

I have issues with Biden’s sitting on a beach. I promise not to vote for him. Do you promise to not vote Trump?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_vacations#Known_totals Wiki disagrees with you. But wow didn’t know Bush was so high I’m mot changing the subject you’re the one who brought up Biden at the beach. I just wanted to make sure you knew Trumps vacation history since you’re so mad at Biden’s. Hopefully since you’re so mad at Biden at Trumps is higher, you will change you vote. #themoreyouknow

Time down the rhetoric man. I just posted what Trumps girlfriend posted. Guess who the libertarian party of NH supports. It’s Trump. are you not happy Trumps girlfriend is there on the ground! You could just go hope on MAGA Twitter to see the homoerotic photos of Trump after this if you want too.

yea let’s not vote for someone who is going to vacation and take a bunch of days off as President. That knocks out Trump for you who spent 307 days of his presidency golfing (about 25 percent of them) https://seattlemedium.com/donald-trump-spent-almost-a-year-playing-golf-during-presidency/ So are you voting Stein?

2 hours earlier: That’s a bit of egging on an assassination attempt no? I’d say more so than me bringing up the fact Trumps girlfriend is coming to save the day.

The right: you need to take this serious! Tone down the rhetoric also the right 2 hours before:

You hurt his feelings. Go confess on your Trump Bible and atone with 3 Trump steaks.

Don’t worry yall it’s covered

He does say it’s under perjury but that’s not a sentence a lawyer would ever use to do it.

Is it? What’s their name? What’s the notaries name that notarized it?

Even R/conservative is like ehhh