Backintheday544

Outside the whole Democrats don't want to go to big get togethers due to COVID, all the Democrats are just too busy out early voting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/us/politics/early-voting-swing-states.html In Wisconsin, about 146,000 people voted by mail in the 2016 general election. This fall, about 647,000 people have already voted absentee, many in Democratic strongholds. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/10/10/over-9-million-people-have-already-voted-in-the-2020-election-the-majority-being-democrats/ Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016. And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.

This is the exact reason why if the Dems take the Senate and White House, while keeping the house as all the polls are pointing, the Dems should add 4 judges. 3 liberal and 1 moderate. The Republicans made that much easier to do by ending the filibuster on Supreme Court judges. I'm on the fence about trying to add PR and DC as a state. They should definately move to add DC. That's been a long time coming.

Early votes seem to be going Democrat in Wisconsin: "the mother lode of absentee ballots is coming in Dane County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Madison. As of Friday, the number of submitted ballots there amounted to more than 36% of the county's total 2016 election vote; that figure is 10 percentage points higher than in any other county in the state." "In Wisconsin's Republican heartland, the suburban counties that ring Milwaukee, the absentee turnout is only at about the state average so far. And in the dozens of rural counties where Trump won huge victories four years ago, ballots are being returned at a far slower rate than in the state's Democratic areas" For other key states: "Ballot return data from heavily Democratic cities like Pittsburgh; Chapel Hill, N.C.; and Tampa, Fla., and the long lines of cars waiting at a Houston arena to drop off ballots, are signs that many voters have followed through on their intentions to cast ballots well ahead of Nov. 3" Other key issue is ballots are being made when Trump's approval rating is at one of its lowest at even Republican leaning Rasmussen: "As of Friday, more than 8.3 million ballots had already been received by elections officials in the 30 states that have made data available. In six states -- including the battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Minnesota -- the number of ballots returned already is more than 20% of the entire 2016 turnout." https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/oct/11/gop-lags-in-mail-in-voting-numbers/

I don't think there's anything wrong there. White House and Trump campaign didn't pay the travel expenses. No one was given a fee to attend. The more telling thing is the group was expected to be 20,000 and they only got 2,000 while paying for travel costs. Also, White House was saying it was an official event but Trump turned into into a campaign speech violates some ethics.

Kind of excited for the new movie: https://mobile.twitter.com/BoratSagdiyev/status/1314722422285717504

Interesting quote for a Republican Strategist in the race: Legendary Republican campaign strategist Ed Rollins, who is the chair of the pro-Donald Trump Great America PAC, told me "I'm afraid the race is over." Rollins said that he "would definitely recommend that candidates make the case for their own reelection, and when asked about President Trump they should say 'I support him when it's in the interest of my state, North Carolina, Arizona — and oppose him when it's not in the interest of our state. My job to support the people of our state.'" "What happened after the first presidential debate is every Senate race saw a 3- to 4-point drop [for Republican candidates] across the board," said Rollins. "So campaigns are panicking and it's the first time in a long while that they are being outraised. The potential is there to lose not only the presidency but the Senate as well...and to see the kind of wipeout we haven't an experienced since the post-Watergate year of 1974." https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/opinions/republican-politicians-self-interest-leaving-trump-avlon/index.html

Great support in Florida!! https://www.yahoo.com/news/senior-warning-sign-trump-biden-043109910.html "An armada of as many as 500 golf carts gathered at the Sea Breeze Recreation Center to caravan to the nearby elections office, so folks could drop off ballots for Biden." A great point made by one supporter: "But there was also “an overwhelming sense in 2016 of ‘we’ve got this in the bag.’ There was a level of complacency that she’d win,” said Stanley. “Now there’s a heightened sense of urgency, and in many ways, Trump has been our best recruiting tool ever.”"

This is a thread about the reasons you will not vote for Biden. I am now asking you the question, your reason is that he steals and is a liar. If another candidate was a proven thief in court, would that change your opinion on that candidate? If it would not, then being a thief and a liar is not a reason would you won't vote for Biden because you wouldn't apply that standard to another candidate. I'm just trying to clarify your position on why you would or would not vote for someone. I led with that because the OP started with plagiarism and then went with stealing. I was simply following his ramble.

Yes, I do. The point was more it's something the Trump campaign has done. Now your turn.

No hijacking. Just wondering if his reasons apply universally to all candidates or just ones named Joe.

I'm not saying that. Riots are the language of the unheard (and Canucks fans). It just so happens minorities are the ones feeling unheard and lean D.

Probably would have been closer to the same. Don't forget all those mask protests we saw.

Just adding to the list. No issues with the other Trump stealing?

You make good points. Stealing speeches is bad, like when Melania stole Michelle's: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36832095 Stealing is also bad: 1) President Trump has paid $2 million to eight charities as part of a settlement in which the president admitted he misused funds raised by the Donald J. Trump Foundation to promote his presidential bid and pay off business debts, the New York State attorney general said on Tuesday. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/10/nyregion/trump-foundation-lawsuit-attorney-general.html) 2) A federal judge finalized the $25 million settlement between President Trump and students of his now shuttered Trump University on Monday, with New York's attorney general claiming “victims of Donald Trump’s fraudulent university will finally receive the relief they deserve.” (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/04/10/trump-university-settlement-judge-finalized/502387002/)

There's also a major difference in opinion of COVID based on political party: The main own is the last one. 8 percent of Democrats are comfortable attending a crowded party vs 31 percent.

Having Dennis Rodman as our envoy to North Korea probably wasn't a good idea.

A lot of polls ask the question. Here is one from Pew yesterday: People who didn't vote in 2916, support Biden more. 6 percent of people who voted Trump are voting Biden. 4 percent of people who voted Clinton are voting Trump. I think the biggest take away is the 3rd party support from 2016 isn't there in 2020 (even with Republican lawyers trying to get possibly popular third parties on swing state ballots) and those 3rd party votes are going heavily towards Biden.

The main thing he needs to look at is tax liability, not owing or not owing at the end of the year like you said. TCJA had pros and cons. It did cost a lot. The cost is one reason that the Republicans had to make the corporate tax cuts permanent and the individual tax cuts expire in 2026. Under reconciliation, the bill could only cost so much, so that was one settlement. A major con is the complexity. The cornerstone for businesses was the QBI deduction which is a very complex deduction. Per a recent TIGTA study over 1,000,000 Americans didn't take it even though they're eligible. The other major con was the speed at writing it. The Blue book had over a hundred technical corrections that were needed. The Republicans had 96 technical corrections they wanted to make. The biggest was 15 year life for qualified improvement property. They forgot to write that part in. Overall, it was costly and rushed. It could have and should have been better. The disproportionate favor towards the wealthy also led to Trump's promise of a middle tax class cut right before the 2018 election that never happened.

Yes double indeed: "In two dozen interviews with voters in three traditional swing states and Texas, people discussed why they aren’t voting for him again and what it feels like to leave behind a political allegiance that was part of their personal identity" https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-religion-virus-outbreak-race-and-ethnicity-4b9c9d7a7aa46c523047a3a0e932e2a8

This never happened in a prior term. As to the nuclear option, Democrats waived the filibuster for executive branch nominations and federal judicial appointments. They did not use it for Supreme Court nominations. The Republicans are the ones who used the nuclear option for the Supreme Court. Doing so paved the way for packing the court by the Dems after 2020.

Which is why it was odd McConnell said we're not going to hold hearings on Garland. Never has the Senate flat out refused hearings. Their excuse was it was an election year. Just look at Graham's quote. Mitch created a rule, he should stick by it. Here is Graham's clear articulation of the Mitch rule: “I want you to use my words against me. If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say Lindsey Graham said let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination." Part of the election will be a referendum on that and a sweep for Democrats shows the American people want a Supreme Court packing. To be clear, I think Trump should get to nominate a judge and the Senate should give their advice and consent. However, Obama should have had that same chance.

This all stems back to 2016 with Merrick Garland. Conservative Justice Scalia passed and with 8 months before the election, the Dems proposed Garland as his replacement. Garland is much more centrist than some of the more liberal judges Obama could have picked. The rights justification is you should not pick a Supreme Court Justice in a Presidents last term. Republican Lindsey Graham said it best: "I want you to use my words against me. If there's a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say Lindsey Graham said, 'Let's let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination,' " he said in 2016 shortly after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. "And you could use my words against me and you'd be absolutely right." Before Scalia died the court was 5-4 in favor of conservatives with 2 justices on the right that would cross over to the left at times. Garland would have moved the court more left, but that's because Scalia was so far right. Garland was more of a compromise pick. Fast forward to 2020, one of the most liberal judges dies, RGB, and all of a sudden the right want to change the fake rule they made in 2016 and be hypocrites to fill a seat. Filling the seat will give the court a hard right favorite 6-3. The idea of packing the court isn't to make a one party system, it's to rebalance the court, especially with how hypocritical the right is. Packing the court isn't discussed at all today if Garland was given the proper hearings in 2016.

Yes!

He already debated in person once. It just led to his poll numbers increasing.

Spanberger's district went from Eric Cantor to being not conservative enough so Cantor got primaried. Now is leans Democrat for Spanberger's second term