Backintheday544

Huge new poll: https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf Trump/Biden tied in TX. 1 percent lead for Republicans in the Senate. Party break down: Democrat 29% Republican 38% Independent 33% If Texas goes Biden, it's all over.

I'm in a rural/suburb in VA. In 2016 it was littered with Trump signs and a handful of Hilary signs. This year it's about 50/50. But there are noticably less signs than 4 years ago by a ton.

And that's a good reason why were voting zbiden and not Obama. They are different people. Bidens plan and a democratic blue wave is best for the economy based on both Moody's and Goldman's Sachs.

Obama created 11.6 million jobs: https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/

Goldman Sachs also says so: https://fortune.com/2020/10/05/biden-win-2020-us-economy-goldman-sachs-predictions-blue-wave-democrats/

Per Moody's, economy looks better under Biden: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/09/25/biden-democratic-sweep-would-be-best-outcome-for-the-economy-moodys-says/ A Democratic sweep that puts Joe Biden in the White House and the party back in the Senate majority would produce 7.4 million more jobs and a faster economic recovery than if President Trump retains power.

Your numbers look at the US population as whole. Exit polls look at who actually votes. Plus there is probably an issue with exit polls questioning party and people mistakenly saying who they voted for.

Yea. Trump did a bunch of last minute campaigning in places like Wisconsin due to polls. Also again on the spending, you didn't have Trump spending billions on ads in CA and similar places due to polls. And due to polls I made a nice chunk of cash on Trump +475.

Polls are very important. For the race, polls help determine where to put campaign funds. Campaigns have a limited amount of money so they don't want to waste funds on races that aren't close. (Usually, we do have the Trump campaign running ads in DC). For regular people, betting! As polls showed the race tightening closer to election day on 2016, I got Trump +475!!

Which polls are over sampling Dems? What do you think the correct D/R/I breakdown is? For reference, 2016 was 35/31/34 D/R/I. The poll you quote is 37/35/28. Why would we see a 4 percent increase in Republicans as a percent of the electorate?

The polls nationally around the election were pretty accurate. The average polls had Clinton +3.3 where is finished +2.1. At 2.1 points nationally, 538 would give Biden less than a 46 percent chance of winning the electoral college: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632 Don't forget there were wild swings in odds in 2016 that you don't get this year. In Late September it was close to 50/50 on 538. The other thing to keep in mind is third party candidates in 2016 were around 5 percent of the vote or 6,000,000ish votes. Compared to 2012, it's about 4,000,000 more. Now Republicans have been trying hard to get 3rd parties on the ballots but have not done well and lost several court battles. In most swing states if a small fraction of the extra 3rd party votes went Hilary, she's have carried those states, like Wisconsin.

Since you bring up Rasmussen, Rasmussen now has Presidential approval rating at 46 percent. It has seen a steady decline since the first debate. Post Debate, 538 is now giving Biden an 81 percent chance of winning: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ For reference, the night of the election, Hilary was given a 71.4 percent chance: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ RCPs No Toss Up Map now has Biden winning 375-163: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html RCP is based on average polls. When looking at 2016, they were all within the margin for states that mattered excepted Iowa and Wisconsin, which you can see here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html Senate No Toss Up Map has 51-49 Dems: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html However, there probably is not enough data to see if the news out of NC changes anything. I personally don't think it will. I think sex scandals are really a thing of the past in American politics, we elected a President that paid off a porn star about an affair. That didn't hurt his numbers at all. House is already most likely safe Dem. No interesting Governors races.

To be fair, a lot on the right thought women shouldn't be President due to mood swings and hormones. https://qz.com/783723/hillary-clinton-and-our-long-sexist-tradition-of-using-womens-bodies-to-disqualify-them-from-power/

What rationale person here, infected with a deadly virus would tell someone please drive me around for a political stunt/photo shoot knowing you're risking the life of the person you are asking and their families?

There's nothing there showing its not him signing a blank piece of paper. It's just offering an explanation as to why the paper looks blank.

Trump did something similar when he first took over. He had a table spread with a bunch of folders full of paper. Turned out it was all just blank pages: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/313907-trump-didnt-allow-reporters-to-see-documents-detailing-split

I can't stay locked upstairs in the White House.....but isn't he now just locked up in a hospital?

I read to Trump isn't doing what he's supposed to be doing, working out....then laughed imagining Trump trying to work out.

I think everyone on the left wants Trump to be fine. The idea of a President Pence is scarier. A Trump admin kept things pretty incompetent to where no major damage is done that can't be undone. A competent person on the right is much more dangerous to the nation.

He's going to lose a lot of precious time already behind in the polls campaigning. It's a huge blow. His rallies were a huge reason he was able to get out the vote that he could in 16.

It's a meme. It's funny because originally it was a taco salad that he was using to prove the hispanic community likes him. Now instead of a taco salad, it's the coronavirus.

This has been my favorite so far:

He should be able to give a DNA sample in the rape case while he is at a hospital.

Biden is not hiding. He is keeping social distancing and raising funds through things like Zoom meetings. He doesn't want his voters to get together at rallies and contract the virus. Trump did try hiding from the protest in DC when super late at night he went to "check" on the White House bunker.