BillsQuebec

Hello sports bettors! During the regular season, I did not make a pick on all games. For entertainment purposes, I’ll do it in the playoffs. I will let you know how much confidence I have in each pick. The best part of the NFL season is coming up, so let’s dive right in! WILD CARD GAME #1: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5) We are starting strong with my top pick of the weekend: I’m putting my money on the Bills in this matchup. Can you believe Buffalo has beaten the spread in each of their last eight games? That’s unbelievable! Only four teams ended the season by beating the spread on 8+ consecutive games. All of them were winning wagers in their first playoff game. The Colts suffered a big blow in Week 16 when they lost their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo. The team absolutely needs to protect Philip Rivers well because he is a statue in the pocket, and he tends to get bottled up easily. To me, Rivers having no mobility whatsoever is a big factor, as opposed to Josh Allen who can escape the pressure on a regular basis. Also, Indy is great defending the run, but they weren’t nearly as good against the pass where they finished in the middle of the pack in terms of passer rating allowed. Now facing a passing team, that could spell trouble for Indianapolis. The Colts defense overall slowed down as the season progressed. Indeed, they allowed an average of 19.7 points per game through their first nine meetings, while that number increased to 26.4 in the final seven matches. The Bills defense did the exact opposite and seems to be peaking at the right time. They surrendered 28 points per game in the first six contests versus 21 points over the last 10 games. The temperature is expected to be below zero degree Celsius this Saturday. Philip Rivers played his entire career in the warm weather of San Diego and Los Angeles before joining the Colts who play in a stadium covered by a dome. Buffalo wins big and finally gets its first playoff victory since 1995! Official pick: Bills -6.5 WILD CARD GAME #2: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) I am not going to bet this game, but if I was forced to do it I’d back the Rams here. The situation at quarterback is unclear for Los Angeles, but the latest reports suggest Jared Goff should be under center. If he is unable to go, John Wolford will take the field. He did better than expected in a must-win game last week. He’s not as good as Goff as a passer, but he was a threat as a runner. I also like the fact that the Rams are expected to get three key players back this weekend: wide receiver Cooper Kupp, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive end Michael Brockers. Seattle’s defense improved a lot late in the season, while L.A.’s defense was strong all season long. This could be a defensive battle, in which case I prefer to go with the underdog. Still, I am not going to pull the trigger on the Rams. Seattle has won 11 consecutive playoff games when favored. They also post a great 6-1 ATS record in wild card games. Lean: Rams +3.5 WILD CARD GAME #3: TAMPA BAY BUCS (-8) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM I won’t put money at risk in this game either, but I am leaning towards the Bucs. Alex Smith appeared even more limited than usual last week in Philadelphia, and he really played poorly. Washington’s running game couldn’t get going all night long, and it led to a bad outing by the offense. Now facing the top run defense in the league, how are they going to score points? I simply do not trust Alex Smith to light up the scoreboard, especially with his top two threats, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, being banged up. So why am I not betting this game then? There are a few numbers and trends that scare me. Since 1970, only three teams were road favorites by 6+ points in the playoffs; all of them lost straight up! Also, the Bucs are 0-4 in primetime games this season. They were really awful in such games. Finally, the only other two squads qualifying for the postseason despite a losing record both covered in their first playoff game. Lean: Bucs -8 WILD CARD GAME #4: BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3 OR -3.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS This time we have a pick that I like enough to put money at risk. In this matchup of the two best running attacks in the league, I am betting the Ravens as 3-point favorites. First, how could I omit mentioning the famous revenge factor, which is largely in favor of Baltimore? Not only did they lose 30-to-24 in overtime back in Week 11, but the Ravens were ousted from the playoffs last year by those same Titans by a 28-to-12 score. Both of these games occurred in Baltimore. The Ravens will be fired up to avenge those losses, and they won’t slow down even if they take the lead this Saturday. The Baltimore train has been picking up some steam recently. John Harbaugh’s team has beaten the spread in each of their final six games. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past six road playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in January. A piece of information that may be flying under the radar is the fact that Tennessee has three offensive linemen listed as questionable: Rodger Saffold, Ben Jones and Dennis Kelly. Even if they all suit up this Sunday, they are nicked up and could struggle against a tough Baltimore front. If you like betting totals, you may consider grabbing the over for two reasons. All five times that the Titans were underdogs this year, the game went over the total. Secondly, this will be just the third time that a wild card game has a total of 55 points or more. In the previous two instances, the game ended with exactly 73 points scored. Official pick: Ravens -3 Lean: Over 55 WILD CARD GAME #5: CHICAGO BEARS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-10) This is the third pick that I like enough to call it an “official” pick: I’m grabbing the Saints as 10-point favorites. The Bears have a fairly weak offensive line, so they are likely to struggle against the ferocious Saints defense. Also, Chicago is likely to miss a key piece of their defense due to injury: linebacker Roquan Smith. He exited the regular season finale against the Packers with an elbow injury. It looks like he dislocated his elbow and probably won’t be available this weekend. Meanwhile, the Saints have a good shot to get both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on the field. That should be a big boost to their offense. There are several statistics favoring New Orleans: · Since 2011, double-digit favorites are 7-1 ATS in playoff games; · The Bears are 0-4 ATS over the last two years as underdogs of 6 points or more; · Chicago is 0-6 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning record; · Da Bears have a disappointing 6-18 ATS record after a double-digit home loss; · The Saints are 4-0 ATS following a win by at least 14 points. Based on these arguments, I’m taking the Saints but for some reason I remain cautious and won’t go big on this one. I still prefer Buffalo and Baltimore this week. Official pick: Saints -10 WILD CARD GAME #6: CLEVELAND BROWNS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6) I am clearly avoiding this game. Way too many uncertainties surrounding this game. The Browns had some COVID-19 cases, which will prevent head coach Kevin Stefanski, star left guard Joel Bitonio and defensive end Olivier Vernon from taking the field. Other guys are uncertain to suit up this Sunday, including three offensive linemen (Tretter, Teller, Conklin) and a couple of cornerbacks (Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson). Who will play and who will miss the game? I prefer to avoid putting money at risk on this great AFC North matchup. The only wager I could consider making is betting the over. Why? The over has gone 9-1 with Big Ben under center in home playoff games. Also, the over is 11-3 when teams meet two weeks in a row. Lean: Over 47.5 This should be a fantastic weekend of football, so enjoy it guys! I’ll be back next week for more betting tips for the Divisional Round. Best of luck with your bets! I invite you to reply to this thread by sharing with us who is YOUR top pick for the weekend? Looking forward to your answers. Thanks guys! Professor MJ

Amazingly great post! Thanks for sharing Inigo Montoya, I appreciate a lot!

PICK: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 4 stars) In the first meeting between these two squads back in Week #4, the Pats won a close 16-to-10 game despite four turnovers by the Bills. Buffalo racked up 375 total yards versus 224 for New England. If not for Josh Allen’s ill-advised passes, the Bills could have won this game. He has learned the importance of protecting the ball since then, as shown by his 15 TD passes versus just three interceptions. New England is 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, notice that the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five matchups at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have been a shaky team recently; their 34-to-13 win over the lowly Bengals doesn’t mean much. As for Buffalo, after a small mid-season slump, they are definitely trending up and playing smart football. In my opinion, the point spread is inflated due to New England’s 20-year domination. They haven’t been that good recently. Their defense has been regressing a bit, although still good. Julian Edelman will likely suit up, but he’s battling a couple of injuries and he didn’t look comfortable last week (he only caught two passes). Buffalo’s defense has allowed 16 points per game on average. Their pass defense is outstanding, and their run defense has improved a lot over the past few games. It seems clear to me that the Patriots have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Bills by 7 points or more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo won the game outright. I’m taking the Bills to cover. Professor MJ

3 NFL Picks for Week #15 PICK: New England Patriots -9.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (rated 4 stars) Let’s kick off with a few stats. The Patriots are 5-1 both against the spread (ATS) and straight up over the past six meetings with the Bengals. New England also holds a 4-0 ATS record on the road against teams with a losing record. As for the Bengals, they are posting a bad 1-6 ATS record as home underdogs. I know the Patriots don’t look the same. But I wouldn’t bet against a Belichick-coached team following a couple of losses. No way! One might argue this is a sandwich game for New England after facing the Chiefs and awaiting a key meeting with the Bills. However, considering this game is very important for New England, I do not believe they will fall into a trap. The Patriots eat bad teams for breakfast. They have played five games against teams with a 5-8 record or worse. In those games, they outscored their opponents 174-to-35!! That’s an average margin of victory of 28 points. So do you think they can win this one by at least 10 points? You bet they can! So, overall, yes the Pats offense is struggling but Cincy’s defense allows an average of close to 400 yards per game. New England will find a way to move the ball, while their defense will complicate things for Andy Dalton and company. PICK: Chicago Bears +4 at Green Bay Packers (rated 2 stars) After starting the season with a 3-5 record, the Bears have gone 4-1 since then. Their defense has allowed a maximum of 24 points in each of their past seven contests. With their offense finally finding some rhythm, that should be enough to cover the 4.5 point spread. Green Bay’s defense is okay, but not stout either. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per game. Mitch Trubisky finally woke up recently; he tossed 6 TD passes versus 2 picks in his previous two games. He also completed 75% of his passes during this stretch. I think the Bears will be able to move the ball at Lambeau Field this Sunday. Chicago gets three extra days of rest after hosting the Cowboys last Thursday. They will be looking for payback after a 10-3 loss in the season opener to those same Packers. I would pound this game more if Roquan Smith didn’t get hurt. I think he did a fine job this season at linebacker, but he landed on injured reserve a few days ago. Divisional games tend to be more tight, and I don’t believe this one will be an exception. Take Da Bears and the points here. PICK: Buffalo Bills +1 at Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars) I like the way the Buffalo organization is headed. They are playing smart football and their players are buying Sean McDermott’s message. They proved they were serious contenders last week by limiting Lamar Jackson and his friends, a task that seemed impossible to do based on Baltimore’s unbelievable run. The Bills are 3-0 ATS after a straight up loss this year; they don’t get crushed after losing a game. Both teams have a very solid defense. However, I trust Buffalo’s offense a lot more and I think Josh Allen will do enough to get the W on the road. Devlin Hodges is 3-0 as a starter. However, if you remove points scored by the defense and special teams, he generated 17.7 points per game on average (which included a game against a weak Arizona defense). He has not faced a defense like Buffalo’s and he’s likely to struggle a lot. I am aware that James Conner is likely to be back, but it won’t be enough with their third-string quarterback. The Steelers lead the league with 33 takeaways. That’s out of the ordinary and difficult to sustain. Josh Allen has more experience trying to avoid turnovers than Hodges does. In the end, I believe Buffalo comes out on top to secure a playoff berth. Gooooooood luck with your plays this week! Professor MJ

You should be fine, yeah. Although if the Bills find a way to lose this weekend at home against the Broncos, I'd be getting a bit nervous if I'd be you, considering the strength of opposition until the end of the year. Buffalo would still be very likely to win at least one more game, but I'm just saying I'd be a bit nervous ?

What is your point? Doesn't mean as many people bet the over in the past 21 seasons. Also, do you really have data on this? I seriously doubt they came in under in 18 of the past 21 seasons. They often finished with a 7-9 record, which was pretty much what was expected.

Thanks! I know many other posters made that bet, I'm really happy for all of them. We crushed it!

A nice $4,971 profit, thanks Buffalo Bills! I want to congratulate all of you who also put money on the Bills to win more than 6.5 games this year!

In other words, theoretically the bookies could lose money on each and every one of the 32 teams (I'm still talking about regular season wins). It depends if most of the money was wagered on the over or the under for each team (versus the actual outcome).

It depends. Maybe most people bet the UNDER on the Steelers, who knows.

Do you know if the Bills fan put the 13k bet at just one sportsbook? I had to go to many of them before reaching 7k. The first I went to was DraftKings near Metlife stadium. They had the best odds, that's why I went there. Told them I wanted to bet 10k. The boss declined it, said the max was $2,500. Technically, I could bet more, but he changed the odds so much it wasn't worth it. I had to drive to other bookies to add more at reasonable odds.

Back in May I wagered $6,987 to win $5,269 on the Bills over 6.5 wins. Here is the proof (YouTube video). Eventually I added the following bets: Bills to win the AFC East $1,000 to win $12,000 Bills to win the AFC Championship $500 to win $33,000 Crossing my fingers!

Have faith! $1,000 to win $12,000

In the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats have been favored by 18+ points on 5 occasions. They have failed to cover the spread on all of those 5 games... So to those of you who believe the Pats -19 is a slam dunk, you may want to pump the brakes a little bit... My pick of the week goes to the Bears -2 at the Broncos. The rest factor, which is critical in the NFL considering the physical nature of the game, is largely in favor of the Bears here. They are going to benefit from three additional days of rest after playing the Thursday Night game against the Packers last week, while the Broncos lose one day of preparation since they played last Monday. In other words, the Bears will have 4 more days than the Broncos to heal and to game plan for their upcoming meeting. That is huge! Chicago is also coming off a very disappointing home opener where they were repeatedly booed by their home crowd. Playing on the road will relieve some stress; it might actually be a good thing. Prior to last week, FootballGuys.com were ranking Oakland’s defense 32nd (dead last!). The Broncos only managed to score 16 points against them, so how can they expect to generate some offense against the stout Bears defense? They are in for a long day. Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense struggled big time against Green Bay. They probably won’t score a boatload of points, but I feel they are going to be more focused on details and will be able to do enough to win this game. Which team has the best defense? Chicago. Which team has the best offense? Chicago. With a more rested team that I also expect to be very hungry, to me the pick is simple here: Chicago! LEAN: BENGALS -2 VS 49ERS The Bengals lost a game they should have won in a very tough environment. Indeed, they racked up 429 totals yards versus just 233 for the Seahawks. They made 22 first downs compared to just 12 for Seattle. However, 3 lost fumbles cost them the game. Running back Joe Mixon left the game with an ankle injury, but he should be back this week. Andy Dalton looked very sharp with over 400 passing yards despite missing his number one receiver, A.J. Green. John Ross was fantastic with 7 receptions for 158 yards and a couple of TDs. Cincy’s defense was supposed to be bad in 2019, but they looked good last week. They pressured Russell Wilson pretty often. Was it just a flash in the pan? We’ll find out soon. Meanwhile, the Niners won 31-17 in Tampa Bay even though the stats were pretty even. Obviously, the four takeaways helped secure the win. Jimmy Garoppolo raised many question marks during preseason and he did not necessarily impress in Tampa. He missed several open receivers throughout the game. San Francisco’s running game did okay, but wasn’t great either. They also lost one of their starters, Tevin Coleman. The former Falcon will be out several weeks with a high-ankle sprain. Considering the game starts at 1 PM Eastern Time, it will feel like 10 AM to 49ers players since they come from the West Coast. That’s another obstacle for them. Also, playing on the road against a non-conference opponent makes it more difficult to find extra motivation (as opposed to the home team that necessarily has the motivation to do well in front of their home crowd, no matter the opposing team).

Are you kidding? That's probably the bet where I got the best odds a few months ago. They have moved quite a bit since then. For example, Pinnacle has the over at -195 and the under at +162. Bet365 has over -165 under +135. I could go on and on with other examples. I don't think I've seen a single bookie that still has odds as good as -133!!