MasterStrategist

Sounds great, agree with the approach to analyze. Appreciate this, will be fun to compare and I'm likely to learn alot more about Coleman in this exercise. Didn't realize that many of his catches were at/behind LOS, very interesting and thanks for sharing. Brady definitely likes his WR screens, another asset having Coleman for targets/blocking ability maybe more so. Agree, seemed like Beane was trying to at least replace the Gabe skillset (downfield threat/contested catch, and blocking). Just from a high-level, I think Coleman is certainly more raw than Gabe entering the league (from a route running standpoint/downfield). Coleman has more potential though, and definitely brings more versatility in his game, being more fluid/agile than Gabe, IMO. The Gabe vs Coleman production difference in college, is difficult for me to fairly assess...without more research into that Central Florida team. I know FL St had a good ground game, one of the best backs in college this year, and a strong defense. I can't be certain, but seemed like FL ST did play a true complementary/conservative at times offense. Cool, I'll start looking at Game 2.

Sounds good, I'll remove separation from my analysis and follow what you laid out. I included it, more for my benefit, to help with categorizing contested catches and his overall route running. But I can hit on contested catches regardless. Abbreviations: UC-uncatchable C-Catch D-Drop Sep- separation JT- Jordan Travis Re: Great vs Poor, 6 to 2. I was assessing his performance on what I'd consider "gradeable" targets, ie: I won't include uncatchable balls, blown up bubble screens etc. Instead of this going forward, I'll just indicate 'splash plays', IMO. I will say that I think it's fun/interesting, and informative, to review the various outlets player reviews. Personally, I don't watch every snap of a player, usually a cut up. But I also don't treat anything as "gospel" either. Just to say, I'll be using my own "eyes" and thoughts as i review, as opposed to using anything else to support my analysis from PFF, Espn, etc. When I first repsonded to you a while ago, I originally was refuting your point about dropped passes/catch rate, and that some were UC (poorly thrown/thrown late and broken up). And you were using your assessment to make an overall point, as I understood it, that this cut up of film only lowered your opinion of Coleman (which I also refuted). I think the cut up supports more "optimism", than anything else. So I'll stick to these metrics, as defined above: C, D, UC, 'splash plays', contested catches, (and will mention 'hands' as needed to support my analysis on specific targets/overall).

Hey @PBF81 circling back on the Keon "all target" discussion. Couple things of note, as I'm listing all targets and timestamps: 1. Categorization: Drop, Catch, Uncatchable 2. Skill level: poor, ok, great, elite (*for uncatchable, reason why and if he had separation) 3. Separation noted Targets LSU: 13 Targets- 9 Cat, 1 Drop, 3 Uncatchable. Separation- 7 success of 8. 90% catch rate, 88% separation rate, ADOT 10.0 yards (includes all targets: bubble screens/flat routes, etc). Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 1. Q1 11:15: UC, High/inaccurate. Clear Sep-10 yd route 2. Q1 9:20: UC, inaccurate/route was a sideline curl pass was inside. Clear Sep-20 yd route 3. Q1 7:59: C/TD, Great - YAC, Clear Sep-10 yd route 4. Q2 10:40: UC/INT, late pass/bad on JT. N/a on sep- bubble screen 5. Q2 6:50: C, Great-body control. Clear sep-6 yd route 6. Q2 6:00: C, OK. Bubble screen-blown up 7. Q2 4:05: D, poor. Clear sep-scramble drill- 15 yrd route 8. Q2 1:04: C/TD, Great- contested catch. No sep- 21 yrd 9. Q3 13:01: C, Ok- Yac. Bubble screen 10. Q3 5:52: C, Great route/Great body control. Clear sep- should have been a TD with better throw, this was a post but QB threw seam- 40 yd route 11. Q3 4:36: C, Poor-Yac. Bubble screen 12. Q4 12:22: C, Ok/Great- YAC. Flat route 13. Q4 10:22: C/TD, Great - body control/route. Clear Sep-fade, outmuscled DB-8 yr route I'll do more games, but 1 down. Let me know your thoughts.

Re: Brady and impact on Allen/offense, all we have is "hope" and LYs small sample to go off of. I'm just speaking for myself here, but anyone who is calling Brady a surefire improvement on Dorsey is just being overly optimistic. Personally, I didnt like Dorsey. Thought he was ADHD with his playcalling/rhythm. He had his moments, but something I won't be able to confirm but believe, is something happened in that Bengals game or during the offseason that caused riffs. He and McD never seemed on the same page to boot, and Allen just plain out "looked" off. That OC/QB relationship is very important, and it clearly changed during the season. Re Brady, I like his scheme that I saw in Carolina. Another Josh pick. I'm mainly hopeful bc of Bradys ability to put together better gameplans (objective opinion) and adjust in-game. Then what seems to be a very good relationship with Josh. All unknowns, and I could be way off with my "optimism" but I wouldn't characterize it as over the top. I didn't think Beane took a good look at external candidates and I hope that's because of what they see in Brady. But Beane isn't perfect and if he/McD make another OC blunder then someone's head should be on the chopping block

Key thing on all of this is that we have zero sample size on a Brady-led scheme will look like, and a full offseason geared toward practicing the install. I think above factors into basically everything we are going back and forth on. His Carolina time was with a terrible OL and pedestrian QBs. Even if we use LY, there are so many variables behind the scenes that it makes it impossible to forecast results for this year. We do know Josh had a below avg season, for his standard. Re: Cook LY, I think the Beane plan was to use Harris and Murray as a 2a/2b combo, and not put so much on Cook. But then Harris goes down, and Murray was clearly washed. I'd put that mistake on Beane. But it's not like Cook didn't have a great year. It's just that I think he won't be used as much this year, if Davis shows out early

Agree on complementary football, but depends how much we turn into a "conservative" offense. Brady was a hot name his first year in Carolina, then was fired after very bad offensive output. He reminds me a bit of the Daboll path, or pick another coach, that was young and "flashed" in another OC role, bit ultimately needed more time to learn in various roles. Re: Allen this upcoming year, I don't agree with your take about "mimic his best season ever". And that is two-fold: 1. Yards, TDs are both in line with his averages, since 2020. Except LY on TDs which I think is an outlier. His INTs are a projection that is likely overly optimistic, but I could live with 14 INTs 2. I don't think Brady is going to turn us into a run first/solely short passing attack. I think Cook got too many touches LY, and we will have some of those go to Davis this year/less Allen designed runs. I think we will see just as many 20+ throws and better execution in the intermediate passing game. Intermediate passing, counting on Kincaid and Shakir to improve and for us to have a better option than Gabe in Keon. I think if anything, we will see more screens in the passing game, RB and WR. We brought in a 2nd RB who has been a good catching back in college, and Samuel offering better YAC than we got from anyone but Shakir LY. Yes, these are based on non-statistical observations. But same as me, you don't know how Brady is going to run his offense this year OR how our young playmakers handle more opportunities OR if there was something causing Josh to play worse LY (mentally, personally/coaching disagreements/Diggs drama/etc). Bu understand if you have a different view. Brady had some well called games, and other games where our offense looked downright terrible. I give him benefit of the doubt, but if he starts the season slow it might be more than his head on chopping block. And yes, I still will look at Colemans targets and get back to you. Thanks

You've made a lot of posts, comparing offensive production (and now Allen), Dorsey vs Brady for 2024. You're analyzing/compiling the stats correctly, no doubt on that. But I think it's way too early to compare success with Brady at the helm. At least let Brady install "his offense" and have a full offseason in charge, before anything else. Again your stats are accurate, but isn't it an injustice to Brady and the entire offense to try extrapolating any stats at this juncture? There was a reason Dorsey was let go, this is definitely one of those situations of "let it play out". ******* Re: QOD I thought Josh had one of his worst seasons, from a decision making/reading defenses perspective. Alot goes hand in hand with Bradys offense install/playcalling, and also WR play, but I'm very hopeful on both aspects. Yards: 4,300-4,500 TDs: 36 Ints: 10 Overall a much more efficient season.

In my book, a non-RB receiving threat is just as valuable to an offense. TE or WR. I don't care if Kincaid lines up outside, on the line beside the T, or in the slot. You're putting a WR in the exact same position (minus lining up in a traditional TE position). Kincaid is not a traditional TE, I think we all recognize that, and his alignment most often reflects a slot WR in our formations. And even if you don't want to include Kincaid, fine. But let me rephrase we have spent 2 out of our last 5 "top 33 picks" on a WR. Diggs and Coleman. 40%. If you want to call that "not priortizing", please name all the other teams that have used 40% or more of their respective top 33 selections in their respective last 5 drafts. Plus drafted a "TE" in that criteria as well. I can spend the time looking it up, but I'm going out on a limb and say we are top 10 in that regard. 2nd way to look at this is cap hit $s by year: 2020-2024: we've been 4th, 9th, and 7th highest. Never below 18th. And cumulatively spent more than Cincy and KC (just to compare against 2 teams) I'd like to see your "facts" now, that explains why we are according to you..."one of the lower teams in the league when it comes to WR investment". Please do tell. It seems you're being more emotional, than rationale at first glance. But I'll gladly apologize if you have actual "facts" that are indisputable, as you insist above.

I saw this interview in another thread, and immediately when Beane said Shakir...thought of you 👏 Beane definitely has faith not only in Shakir, but the other options he has. And maybe Joe Brady the most. I thought Brady did a great job in Carolina during 2020, and basically had squat to work with at OL and QB. His scheme seemed more like a hybrid Saints scheme (Payton), and won't be surprised to see a lot more RB screens/even more Cook or Davis receptions. Shakir definitely has a big opportunity ahead of him this year and hope he takes advantage. Look forward to seeing how Brady uses him and Samuel the most.

You know it's not illegal for Kincaid to catch passes or be our leading target. And if you read my post, and not cherry picked comments, you'd notice I made the case of Beane using 3 of our last 5 first round picks on a combination of receiver/tight end. It's not all about just having a dominant WR room, very good TE play can be just as impactful. Perhaps less big/splash plays, but provide great consistency for middle of field and help create 1-1s for other receiving options.

To each their own, but I like the philosophy/approach that Beane has taken. Don't agree with "not prioritizing" though. I wish he would have invested more in OL sooner. And he has a so-so track record.at front 7, much better at LB and avg/below avg at DL, IMO. This is the buzz topic for most, so not looking to rock the boat in this topic. But I continue to think a strong DL/OL, with a great QB wins championships...we don't see a lot of track meet SBs, or teams win it that don't have the formula listed above. Agree with you 100% on not drafting 3 WRs in a single draft. If we look back to 2020-current though: 2020: Diggs, Gabe 2021: instead of drafting a WR, they liked Manny 2022: Shakir 2023: Kincaid 2024: 2nd technically, but should count as a 1st given we would have taken Coleman or another WR at 28 I see your point being more inaccurate, but thats just my point of view on how much you consider "prioritizing". Since 2020, we've used 3 1sts, a 4th, and a 5th on weapons. Then a 2nd on Cook, and a 3rd on Moss. So that's 3 out of 5 years, using a 1st round pick at a receiver/tight end. Then some later picks/mixed with FA signings. They saw Gabe as a suitable #2/3, and now putting faith in Shakir to take a higher role. I'd say that's much better than "not prioritizing". It's not the best group on paper, Beane has self created some cap issues. But it's a decent group with potential. Mainly riding on Brady as a OC, and faith in the young receivers taking advantage of their opportunities week-to-week. Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, MVS. Then Cook, Knox, Hollins, and Davis/Johnson. It's a good enough group with better playcalling, OR if one the young guys surprises with a bigger season than expected. If both happen, we will be a top 3 offense. If 1 happens, we should be in the top 5-8. If neither happens, we're likely in the 10-15 range. I like Brady alot, so I'm confident that box will at least be checked.

I thought Ogbah until after the draft and Smoot signing. Locks: Groot, Von, AJE Young/potential still untapped: Solomon, Kingsley (to an extent young/developing) Vets/decent fallback options: Toohill, Smoot I think we keep 1 young and 1 vet on the 53. Likely try sneak the 1-2 cuts onto P/S. Solomon and Smoot would be my guess on who we keep, if Smoot shows more progress from his achilles. And Solomon if he show S/T ability, and some juice on edge. It would be a well rounded group, as Solomon isn't offering much in run defense. Bottom line, I don't see room for an Ogbah or bigger signing at this point. Unless Smoot, Toohill, and a young guy all look like crap in training camp. Beane doesn't have to spend that 6/1 $s immediately, he might see if a surprise cut is made (DE or other position) or hold onto $s for a potential mid season trade. Worse case he rolls over to 2025.

Of course, that's what the offseason is for. And whining about McD, Beane, lack of Wrs, playoff defense, etc. 😆

Ok. That's not what ppl are trying to tell you though. This isn't about logic...there are alot of sayings that aren't "logical". Someone says in football, "taking it to the house", that means scoring a touchdown. Same as "alligator arms", implies avoiding contact as a receiver, on a given play(s)

You're missing the point, or should I say "misreading the crowd". It's a common saying, if you want to misuse it that's up to you. Just like you're not changing what "lol" means to millions of ppl

People are trying to kindly tell you it's a common saying in America ("alligator arms"= short arm a catch, because afraid of upcoming hit/contact"). It's not a scientific saying or anything pertinent to the animal itself. If you misuse a common saying, you will likely be misunderstood. Like someone texting you they just got hurt in a car accident, and you text back "lol". Without knowing that means what it does, you'd unintentionally be communicating an insult. Similar to what you implied about Shakir, who does have short arms but certainly doesn't shy away from contact. Unintentionally that's what you said.

It's just his typical way of interacting with most on here, that challenge what he's saying. He has his moments of good insight. But he gets lazy and contradicts himself, and instead of staying on point, reverts to arrogant sarcasm as a method of debating a topic. It's like watching a political debate unfold in front of your eyes. To your points that I've seen posted, I agree with them. Regardless of topic, it will somehow spin into McD not bring a good coach OR pointing the finger at him for defensive meltdowns. It gets old and somehow these posters act like they are much better equipped to be "fortune tellers", because it's their way or the highway.

You're just full of yourself...such a joyous presence on here. You twist what ppl post, not just me but others, thinking you're on some victory lap. Maybe try to stay with the points ppl are making, instead of turning into a sparky troll when ppl challenge your thoughts. Weak minded folks tend to rely on this tactic....also called railroading

You obviously didn't comprehend my post OR Intentionally trolling. Either way, carry on with your foolishness 😂

Haha what a troll job. I'll put whatever $$$ amount up against your claim that Coleman will be a healthy inactive. DM me

2021: 61 rushes over final 7 games reg season (under Daboll) 2023: 63 rushes over final 7 games reg season (Brady) I'd say this has been his norm. I would say that's a high #, and hopefully with growth in our rushing attack/better efficiency & a legit #2 RB that stat can decrease. But let's not act like it was some historic difference and call it "not sustainable", more like "not preferable, but similar to past years"

I just think this is over the top. It's just not realistic to expect our offense to be "perfect", no mistakes by Josh/etc. The offense was pretty much perfect in the Pats win, but that was a historic feat. More realistically, we need our defense to get stops. I know we've discussed this and share different opinions, so we don't need to revisit. I just see things differently, but appreciate the civil discussion.

Next question then, so do you think our offense was good enough to beat KC? We put up 24 points and should have been more. I posted this to you before, but that was the most points KC gave up to any opponent this postseason. KC Opp: Dolphins (1st yards/2nd points), Bills(4th yards/6th points), Ravens(6th yards/4th points), 49ers (2nd yards/3rd points). I'd say those same teams above had lethal offenses, and better defenses/healthier than ours come playoffs (minus Miami). So again, not sure why we keep saying our offense is good enough in regular season...why not playoffs? Haven't we performed well in playoffs (minus Cincy game)?

Do you honestly think we had a #1 for the 2nd half of LY? Diggs wasn't playing that way, injury or otherwise; IMO. We managed to be successful and go 6-1

Trust me, I'm with ya. But I've accepted this is the new NFL reality. Highest bidder at the auction takes home the shiny item. Better them than a far less popular streaming service IMO.