
MasterStrategist
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I doubt they put anything but a 4-5 matchup on MNF, since that will delay knowing who will be playing who/where in Round 2. Us and Dallas are currently the 4 seeds. With Dallas flexed to Sat this week, not sure if the NFL is going to give them essentially 2 extra rest days...so I do think if it ends up as the current seeding aligns, then we will play on MNF. I'm rooting for anytime on Sunday.
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Agree, this is not the typical Browns offensive strategy. And they are ignoring what has been working against Pitt. Maybe evaluating Baker? Strange either way
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It's been discussed in a multitude of posts & reasoning already, but I wanted to provide some statistics & context to highlight why I think yesterday's offensive performance is one of the most dominating/strong showings this season. Much has also been made of Josh's underwhelming QBR performance, 17 rating, so wanted to touch on that (see points #2-4). The turnovers absolutely need to be cleaned up, but I'd call 2 of those "flukes" (tip passes) and the 3rd should have been illegal contact (while Beas running the seam route). Not an excuse, but this could have easily been another 40+ point showing by the offense. I was also encouraged to see the run game pick up chunk plays & convert in the redzone. Key Points/Statistics (based on re-watching the game & tracking each play): 1. Dominating performance/Maintaining Drives: 71 Plays / 4 - 10+ Play Drives / 351 Yards / 28 - 1st Downs / 34 Min TOP / 80% Redzone efficiency. 2. Misleading Stat of the Day: 11-26 Passing, 42% completion %. It's misleading because Josh completed 5/8 3rd down passes (4 going for 1st downs & the 5th leading to a 4th and 1 conversion). 3. Context is important Stats: 9 incompletions were due to Drops and/or Throw-Away passes (ie: to Dion at the goalline or screen to Motor, etc). Josh also faced pressure on 10 of 26 attempts, only completing 3 of those passes. 4. "Clutch" stat of the day: of Josh's 11 completions, 8 went for 1st downs (5 coming on 3rd down). 5. "Make it Count" stat: on 4 separate occasions, Josh threw incompletions on 1st and/or 2nd down, to then follow-up with a 3rd down pass to convert the 1st. Said another way, he went 4-10 (40% completion rate) on a sequence of plays that extended drives. This is like sitting down at a blackjack table, betting $100 and losing on 2 hands in a row, then betting $300 on the 3rd hand and winning (you'd have an extra $100 in your pocket, but lost 2 of 3 hands). 6. No Punt Game (safety doesn't count...Part 2): 2nd consecutive game w/o a Punt. Same as against New England, Josh & the offense are converting critical 3rd and 4th downs to extend drives & score. We're not seeing drives stall at Opposition 40 or 30 yard line, like we did at mid-season, and that's an encouraging sign heading into the playoffs. Note: See the chart below for a quick summary of these stats. Bottom line, it's easy to look at some stats and come away with the impression that the offense struggled to move the ball or had a poor showing due to turnovers/etc. In contrast, they were "inefficient" at times but came through in the clutch when needed. I like another posters analogy of a "no-hitter, but walking 5 batters/3 errors". We dominated TOP, ran extended drives, and had our best showing of the season in the ground game, to go along with very good redzone efficiency. Yes the turnovers need cleaned up, as our defense stepped up to limit the damage, but this type of performance is MILES ahead of where we were at mid-season (ie: think back to the Jaguars game). This is also the 2nd consecutive game with I 100% believe that Daboll/McDermott have made some critical changes to the offensive approach, to go along with better execution by the players.
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Week 18: Jets at Bills - a W wins the AFC East!
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agree about the Raiders/Chargers, and general line of thinking for Saturday. Nfl doesn't "want" to introduce any unfair advantages either. Might be indicative of who will be scheduled for wild card Saturday as well. I think Rams/49ers will be a good matchup and meets criteria to "flex", but think NFL keeps them and the Cardinal game scheduled at 4:25 on Sunday. -
Week 18: Jets at Bills - a W wins the AFC East!
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Zero reason to put New England/Miami on a flex game, Miami is out of playoffs and Pats essentially playing to keep their 5th seed. -
Week 18: Jets at Bills - a W wins the AFC East!
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Your guess for Sunday night then? I'd think Raiders vs Chargers will be the Snf pick. -
Week 18: Jets at Bills - a W wins the AFC East!
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Any rumors or official time when NFL is supposed to announce Saturday "flex" games? Just looking at the week 18 slate of games, this has to be on a short list (albeit, possibly at the end) of considerations. -
I'm thinking the following will be NFLs choices (for Sat and Sun night): 1. Chargers vs Raiders: HUGE playoff implications, my guess for Sunday night 2. Rams vs 49ers: 49ers fighting for a playoff spot win and in, and Rams for the division title (assuming Cards win tonight). 3. Bills vs Jets OR Eagles vs Cowboys: Bills fighting for a division title. Eagles fighting for a playoff spot, win and in, and 2 potential playoff teams. Will be interesting, I'd put the Bills/Jets at the lowest chance of those listed above, but it likely is under consideration.
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OT Where does Russ Wilson end up?
MasterStrategist replied to 78thealltimegreat's topic in The Stadium Wall
Living in Pittsburgh, it's constantly the talk of fans/media that they'll get Russ or Rodgers. But those media clued in don't believe it, and I find it difficult to believe too. Steelers will roll with Rudolph, very likely, with a draft pick behind him. Their roster is no where near a super bowl caliber team. Their defense has underperformed, as the rush defense fell apart and Haden is out of the lineup alot (he's also gone after this yr) in a suspect secondary. Their oline is worse than ours and needs alot of work. My guess is the Broncos will find a way to lure in a QB in the AFC, or Saints would be an interesting team to watch. -
Wentz is the 2nd to last QB that I'd want starting, from the current AFC playoff teams. But, he's still "average" to slightly above average with the way teams have to defend Indys run game. Wentz is very good at getting them into the right play at the line. The drop-off to Ehlinger will be significant. I haven't looked at tiebreaker, but would expect Vegas gives them a great game and potentially a loss.
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I think for vaccinated individuals only, but I could be wrong. But agree, will have to wait and see what NFL rule changes might be coming in advance of playoffs.
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A Breakdown of the 31 yard run by Damien Harris
MasterStrategist replied to HoofHearted's topic in The Stadium Wall
He sees a pulling guard, his "key / gap assignment", is to scrape not sit and wait for a cutback. On his "hokey pokey" as you call it (or angle route), that's the most difficult route for a MLB to cover 1-1. He also covered it great 3x during the game. How about the NE 4th and 1, where they ran a stretch to the weak side and Edmunds made an unbelievable play to scrape and tackle him for a gain of 3 (otherwise that might have been a huge play)? How about his "insticts" on the many times NE tried to hit Hunter Henry on deeper drags but Edmunds was there to pick it up? Both Sean and Frazier have said high remarks about Tremaine, and we as fans don't know the exact assignment on each play. I'll go with their judgment and what my eyes tell me, which is he's a above average MLB (not a superstar) but very good and gives them a lot of options in pass coverage/disguises/blitzes because of his skills. -
This is called taking the "low road", get a clue. Be happy for the effort and outcome of the game! Great win for the franchise and BillsMafia.
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Dion Dawkins activated from Covid list
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Good call. Be interesting to see his playing time, I'm surprised but trust the coaching staff -
Dion Dawkins activated from Covid list
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
We will see tomorrow. Will stop back to discuss. -
Dion Dawkins activated from Covid list
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Didn't realize there is a deadline to retire/say he needs personal time? Not saying that's what's happening, but there is no deadline for what I'm referring to. -
Dion Dawkins activated from Covid list
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
It's possible it's under consideration, but I'd think if that decision was made then he'd been moved to the non-injury list and free up a roster spot. -
Dion Dawkins activated from Covid list
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Disagree with this 100%, it's one thing if coming back from injury...another altogether if he tested positive and has had no symptoms/impact on conditioning. -
Week 16: Bills at Pats - NEWS
MasterStrategist replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
That's big news, Wise is a key part of their DL. -
Bills Covid List: Players and coaches
MasterStrategist replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall
Because you can activate on gameday, not the same as IR -
Week 16: Bills at Pats - NEWS
MasterStrategist replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Looks like Dion to me, but not 100% certain -
Not with the left side of their oline out...we will see, but 49ers look far superior.
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Week 16: Bills at Pats - NEWS
MasterStrategist replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Mindful that Covid is not a math problem, but Dodson went on the covid list Dec 14th and Dion went on Dec 17th. I'm still hopeful Dion comes off the list tomorrow or Saturday, to travel with the team.