glazeduck

Love: Trade up for Sauce or Jameson Williams in the first George Pickens in the 2nd or Jalen Tolbert/Justyn Ross in the 3rd Expect: Andrew Booth Jr. @25 Tariq Woolen in the 2nd (maybe slight trade up/separate from Booth pick) Settle: Zion Johnson @25 Trey McBride in the 2nd

If Hall is the guy, another trade that feels pretty reasonable/likely is trading down with the Giants for their 2 and Bradberry.

It's one thing to list "really good players" (debatable), it's another thing to identify a player that would fit what we're needing at WR... We already have 3 intermediate/separation types, so Phillips and Bell don't seem to make a ton of sense, at some point you can only have so many players running routes in the short/intermediate area. Gray is interesting, but to me, there's a sizeable gap in talent between him and the guys in the first 2 rounds. I honestly think he, Doubs, Melton have had their stock inflated because there's so many good WRs at the top -- that gap in talent is pulling their stocks up. The guys I'd want if we're taking at WR in the 3rd would be Tolbert and Ross.

Guy doesn't run routes. Seems like a strange fit for a team that clearly values separation...

Not a rumor, but I have to say... I usually have a pretty good feel for our direction by this time in the draft, I'm fairly flummoxed this year, which means Beane & co. have done a great job not tipping their hand (could also speak to the way the draft board breaks out...) We need a CB, but rarely draft directly for need, and everyone likely to be available at 25 has flaws. I find it somewhat interesting that Woolen isn't being connected to us at all (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying I'd want him at 25). The Booth injury rumors are interesting as well, he's the 3rd best prospect in terms of makeup and tape, he feels like he should be our guy... is it possible we've successfully tanked his value with those rumors enough for him to fall to 25? The rumors certainly seem to suggest that... We're being HEAVILY connected to Breece Hall, and could certainly use a RB upgrade. Is that smoke to throw other teams off our real intentions? Or is that confidence from us that there's really no competition in the top 24 picks for him? WR is a weird position for us this year... It's not a massive need in the moment but could be quickly... Jameson Williams is the perfect fit for what we need but really unlikely to be reasonable for us to get to. London and Burks don't feel like great fits, unlikely Olave falls -- the one name that's not really been connected to us, despite having him in for a visit is Garrett Wilson, who seems like he'd probably be the second best fit behing JW... The Pickens rumors make me feel like they're being overblown by a team in the 2nd hoping he falls to them. Is that us? Beyond him, it doesn't feel likely that there will be a reasonable fit in the 2nd without moving up (there's a big gap after Watson and Skyy Moore and the next tier). With where we're drafting, assuming no movement around in the order, it kinda feels like we need to get our WR in the 1st or miss out on the top talent. Beane's comments about the board being done make me feel strongly that they're either VERY confident in getting the guy they want (makes me think Hall or Booth) OR prepared to go purely off value, which means all bets are off except for QB and Edge, potentially... All that considered... I think I think the Hall stuff is smoke, ditto for the Elam stuff -- they're both just TOO strong, for what we usually have out there. I'll shoot my shot and say -- again, barring big moves up or down -- we're either selecting Booth or Wilson, but who the heck knows!

Elam or McDuffie

Stevenson might end up being good, but if we feel like WR may be a need, a Super Bowl contending team CANNOT depend on a 6th round pick turning out. If he develops, depth is a great problem to have, but no, we can't just ignore a position because we might be underrating Marquez Stevenson.

Oh yeah... with a SB window you'd have to just HATE the way the board fell out and not have any reasonable offers to do something like that. The fun part, though, is he's such a high ceiling guy that if we really could develop him with Josh keeping us in the hunt, that could yield a massive return. But again, you'd have to be crazy to do that lol

Agree with all of this. There's also a lot of "sub-questions" that play into this... who else is on that board that's still available? what is their positional value? what's the gap in value between those players (including Hall) and the next on our board at those positions? who's calling to move up and what are they offering? ...

Given the way the board breaks out for RB, WR and CB, I think a trade down to bump our 2 up earlier makes a ton of sense to get 2 viable players at those spots... I'm sure the professionals see that as well.

Wouldn't be shocked to see us trade our '23 1st in a move up to get Williams if he fell far enough. Another interesting consideration... The Eagles are all but guaranteed to use another early pick on a WR and it sounds like that may make Jalen Raeger available. Now I am by no means suggesting that Raeger has star potential, I think that's proven itself out, BUT, he's still an intriguing WR based on analytics and if we're looking for somebody to take the top off of the defense, I could see him being a usable piece to run wind sprints for a late rd. pick or signing him post cut...

That's interesting. Not gonna lie, given our success in developing Josh, I wouldn't hate taking Willis at 25 purely as a developmental asset (not actually advocating for it, for the record...)

These are the components that make the draft such impossible calculus to truly crack. It's not enough to rank players incorporating myriad athletic testing benchmarks (each with varying degrees of correlation/causation to success by position); body size/shape/growth potential/health/etc.; personality/psychology/motivation/background/entourage/cultural fit/etc.; scheme fit; value; immediate production vs. long-term potential; quality of competition; quality of tape, etc. The entire context from where the player is coming from needs to also be used as a lens from which all of the rest of this is viewed... In this case, without question, true freshman (!!!) Stingley is one of -- if not THE -- best prospects in this draft, but that only leads to a bunch of new questions as to why he wasn't the following 2 years. Part of me wants to use my Christian Watson logic of "if he were really that good, you'd think that talent would shine through" and offset all of the deficiencies of these last 2 years, but another part of me looks at the general success crater from a blue blood school like LSU and can embrace the fact that there was probably a lot of suck around that program...

I could see this being true in an "on paper" sense, but I just don't see any way, given the extra contract year, some team doesn't jump up to take Willis in the late 1st as his absolute floor. He's too toolsy to not and he's the kind of guy you'd reeeeally want that 5th year flexibility with...

I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?

Yep, there's absolutely reasons for these things being leaked...

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book. This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

From a "fun" standpoint, I definitely agree. More fun to have a bit of a challenge. From a "go Bills" standpoint... hard to not want the #1 player at a position of need at this point... Yep, same page. I meant my response more in general too.

I'm certainly not a "worshipper", there's a handful of other players on the board that I'd also be excited about (WOOLEN!!!!!) but I do think it would make a lot of sense if he really did fall that far.

You're probably right, but isn't the idea to replicate the draft, not game it to where the best players fall to us? Agree to disagree. Walker might be a slightly better pure runner than Hall, but he's one of the top 10 5 cleanest RB prospects to come out in the past decade analytically. He checks every box.

Cardinals absolutely could and have been connected to him quite a bit in the pre-draft process. Plus you also need to defend against teams behind you (Falcons, Bucs, Chiefs) leapfrogging you.

If the Bills really are interested in Breece Hall, THIS is the pick they'd need to go get. No way are the Pats dealing with us and Arizona is a definite threat for him. A move of just a handful of spots in the 2nd is absolutely worth it at this point.

Well crap, that's what I get for drafting before the coffee kicked in. No wonder he felt like a value! Let's try that again... Rescinding all of the previous back-patting, and after triple-checking that he's not been taken yet, the Minnesota Vikings shamble up to the podium after being that team and selects Travis Jones, DL, UCONN. A negligible need at this point, but the best value. Jones has the quickness and agility, combined with intelligence and leverage to play DE in the Vikings 3-4 and the strength, base and power to back up NT. NOW the Eagles @H2o are on the clock.

The Vikings are in a bit of a tricky spot here -- good talent still on the board at positions of need. They're kicking themselves for not making a small move up for Boye or Ebikitie, but with other talented prospects available, that didn't feel prudent. Travis Jones probably represents the best immediate impact/talent on the board, but NT is not a need and we spent on Harry, so that feels like a luxury pick. Woolen feels like the ideal prospect to learn under Peterson for a year or two, but we've tried the long/athletic CB early in drafts several times with less than great returns; McCreary, in a lot of ways is the polar opposite of Woolen, but offers a limited ceiling and likely ends up getting pigeonholed as a slot CB, which can be had later in the draft... It's less of an immediate need, but with the 50th selection, the Minnesota Vikings select Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan. The Vikings offense is getting revamped, and, by the numbers, are a virtual guarantee to pass more. While Jefferson and Thielen offer one of the better dynamic duos in the league, no one really took hold of the #3 role last year and Thielen is reaching his age cliff. The Vikings clearly like WRs who can play inside and out, and while Moore could stand to improve his physicality in his route running, he has the ability to do that long term. In the short term, Moore should get plenty of room to work underneath with defenses focused elsewhere, and this could be significant with Irv Smith as really the only viable pass-catching TE on the roster. It's a bit of a surprise pick (even to myself!) but I like the fit here short and long-term. The Eagles @H2o are on the clock.

The vikings are okay moving back a few picks if anyone is looking to move up...