glazeduck

A lot of folks on here really want Parris Campbell, I presume because they think his fast 40 time equates to him being a deep threat. But a 4.5 yard average depth of target (aDOT) is the opposite of that. For every time he was targeted 20 yards downfield (for example) he would have to be targeted another 4 times at basically zero yards to accomplish that. And those are just targets! Add to that history of sketchy hands and I just can't see him being a good fit... If we're looking for a big play guy on screens and whatnot, fine, but that seems to be the opposite of the team we're building.

It's what makes the draft so much fun! We all think we know certain things, and then Tyson Alualu ends up as the 9th (11th?) overall pick and it sends the entire sports world to their therapist to question their very existence! I tend to try to take in as much of it as I can and then suss through it logically, using the filter that the closer we are to the draft, the more likely it is to be BS to determine what I believe.

As someone who, in the past has known a few things, I can say that this is true. What's also true, unfortunately, is that we live in a world where wild, complete speculation isn't held accountable because we all just go onto the next thing... plus, there's enough sports outlets and talking heads out there to cover just about every conceivable hot take and outlandish inevitability, so somebody's hot take was going to be right. Then there's the challenge of misinformation, every team uses the media when they need to, and some sources willingly spread false information if it means a tip on something real down the road. Too complex a system to ever ferret out who's looped in, who actually knows what, who's just guessing and who's willfully full of $#!+.

0. Quinnen Williams falls to 5 (because several QBs are traded up for and taken at the top) 1. Bills trade #9, 2019 3rd rd. pick & 2020 3rd rd. pick for #5 to draft Williams. 1b. Bills trade #40 & one of our 4th rd. picks into the late 20s to draft a big WR (order of preference: DK, Butler, Harry) 3. Trade other 4th rd pick & both 7s to get best available TE (if one of top Hock, Fant, Irv, Sternberger, Dax, Knox, Warring, Oliver or Mack are there); Tytus Howard or Nate Davis if not 5. Best available Edge rusher 6. Elijah Holyfield

That all may be true, and I like Hock too, but this team is still too devoid of talent to use a top-10 pick on at TE that's not an obvious Lebron James type player. Especially in a draft when 3rd and 4th rd TEs will be starters in the league -- the delta between Hock and, say, Warring or Oliver doesn't warrant that kind of overspend, in my opinion.

I like a lot of those guys too... I think we're starting to see why the Bills better hope QBs go early. We're in a little bit of no-man's land at 9 if they don't... It's unequivocally too early for Hock or any TE -- same with Marquise, or likely any WR -- Taylor might be gone, Jonah might be a guard (which we no longer need as desperately)... If QBs go early, I think there's a distinct chance that Quinnen could fall far enough that he'd be gettable without throwing in the kitchen sink. If they don't, I'm definitely down with the idea of trading down, if not, I'm starting to embrace the idea of swinging for the fences... Sweat or DK should be there and at that point, probably pose the biggest potential impact on the roster going forward...

A lot of respected NFL people think he's the best DT to come out since Warren Sapp... But sure, let's take an undersized DT who struggled to dominate in the AAC...

Yes to both at the right price, please!

It's true, Harry did not benefit from good QB play and despite a lack of deep speed (which, you're right, we already have on the roster), he DOES bring great YAC ability. I'd be very okay in a trade down situation with Harry...

First of all, college productivity isn't any sort of guarantee in the pros. Mike Haas won the Belitnikoff award and was one of the more productive college WRs of all time and he couldn't even hang on a practice squad. USC's Mike Williams, Limas Sweed, David Terrell, etc.... DK's productivity -- when healthy (especially when accounting for the fact that he was playing alongside 2 other NFL-caliber WRs) -- can easily be considered "productive". It's not like the dude chose to get hurt. Couple that with his physical traits and you have the makeup of a potential star wr. If you're drafting him, you're not doing it based on what he was in college anyway; you're doing it based on what he could be in the pros, which, if he gets there, will be another step or two above guys like Harry, Brown, Butler, etc.

To me it's not (and never has been) about getting a "#1" -- to your point, that's a dying paradigm in the NFL. I've posted this before, but this is a great article that describes why: https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/debunking-the-myth-of-the-weak-2019-wr-class. To me, drafting DK would mean taking a chance on adding 3 VERY important aspects to the offense: Big Play Ability -- we've got deep speed and guys who can win on short/intermediate routes, but we don't have a guy who can take a simple route to the house. Reliable Target on important downs -- obviously this is all assuming he pans out, but sometimes in football, you just need to have a guy that you know can go get you a first down... Who is that guy on the current roster? DK is fast, strong and physical and he wins contested balls (love his quote, calling 50/50 balls "99/1" balls No question, he comes with some risk, but so does Ed Oliver, Noah Fant, N'Keal Harry... and guys like Wilkins, Hockenson, and others come with limited upside... As I said in my first comment in this thread, swing for the fences...

No. That's not how NFL defenses work.

I got ya... Yeah, I can see those styles being similar... Honestly, I think Brown and Samuel are the best bets to be the top WR in the class but we NEED a physical big body. Of those 3, I do think Neal has the highest floor, without question...

My comment on DK wasn't referring to deep balls, although he could absolutely be a deep ball nightmare... I was saying "go big or go home" -- go for the special player, not the really good one... Butler isn't the athlete that Moss was and ditto for Julio and Harry. But definitely think they'll both have good careers. Medicals have to check out, but if they do, 100% agree. I think you can even trade down and still get him.

We can always hope, but I think the best way to think about Williams is as a free lotto ticket -- don't expect him to be anything, but if he pays off it's (obviously) gravy...

Great topic... WANT Mid-first: DK Metcalf -- a lot on this board don't want him, and I get it, but I want a dynastic Bills team, not a *good* team... I say swing for the fences -- that's DK. Late first/early/mid-second: Butler -- tantalizing potential and not hard to see how a guy with his catch radius could help a QB with less-than-pinpoint accuracy. Harry -- love how physical he plays. With Smokey and Foster stretching the sidelines, he could be a matchup nightmare against smaller DBs and/or LBs. AJ Brown/Deebo Samuel -- smaller dudes but would be very happy with either. Brown just seems to be a natural, but I question his ceiling... I LOOOOOOVE Samuel. If we didn't have an entire roster of 6' WRs I'd be dying for him to join the Bills, but would ideally like a bigger dude. Mid-rounds: Riley Ridley -- seems to have a safe floor and a high ceiling... may end up being a great value. Mecole Hardman -- kills me that we signed Beasley to such a big deal because this guy is exactly who we need. Multipurpose weapon, great kick returner, innate ability to get open in the slot... Probably won't happen but he'll definitely be a fun one to watch. Miles Boykin -- craaaaaazy potential, seems like the type of guy we could let grow slowly with 4 solid WRs. Late: Antoine Wesley -- poor man's Butler Preston Williams/Anthony Johnson/Lil'Jordan Humphrey/Tyre Brady -- prototype big WRs with "artificial" (or at least superficial) deflation Jalen Hurd -- just starting to play the position. Great athlete, big upside. AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE First Couple Rounds: JJ Arcega-Whiteside -- TE in a WRs body, one-trick pony (and that trick is starting to die out in the analytics-driven NFL) Parris Campbell -- Speed blinds, drops nullify. Kelvin Harmon -- Separation is the name of the game in the NFL these days. If he was a Metcalf-like athlete he'd be a no-brainer, but bad athleticism coupled with poor ability to separate means trouble against pro DBs. Isabella -- Sorry, just don't see it. If he was as good as many here think he is, we would've heard of him prior to the senior bowl. Later: Hunter Renfrow -- Small hands aren't worth what he could produce... Not like he's the second coming of Randy Moss. David Sills -- See JJAW, pedestrian athlete. As a UDFA, sure, but don't waste a draft pick on him.

Awesome, go Ducks! Yeah TMitch would be awesome on the Bills and probably a solid value. Not overly concerned about those rumors... they gotta say something (see: Mariotta's "no red flags red flag...)

I'm a duck and have followed Oregon for 20 years and have never heard one word of DMitch having maturity or work ethic questions. There was a time where he was thinking of walking away from football, but actually put in MORE work and re-found his love for the game. He's definitely getting drafted. I wouldn't be shocked if it was late 3 or early 4... definitely not going undrafted.

HARDEST of passes...

Neither are a sure thing. I didn't say they were. But one has quite a few more flags than the other. Bills have picks to spend to get the right guy. At the right price, we should all hope they're willing to do that.

One dominated the SEC and is prototype size. The other was up and down in the... [literally having to check what league Houston is in] AAC and is undersized for the position... Not sure what else there is to say about it but if you consider the two comparable then we're not going to see eye to eye on this one...

I think this is a real possibility... Most fans speculating and formulating their opinions on these players and general trade values are basing them on industry mocks... What those mocks aren't taking into account, often, are teams moving up for QBs. That happening is about as routine as the sun rising. I'm not saying the Bills will trade up to 2 or 3 for Quinnen, but if you assume that the top of the draft features a few teams trading up for QBs and the possibility of Bosa and possibly Allen going ahead of Williams, depending on what teams are looking for... It's not inconceivable that he falls to 5 or 6, at which point I could see the Bills moving a pick or two to get Williams. I know a lot of people here like Oliver, but the fact is that he's not a guarantee... Tough to take a guy who may or may not pan out that high. Williams looks like as sure a pick as there is in this draft and fits a HUGE need...

Light as a feather my friend -- I knew it was a joke. Just thought it was interesting that you brought a bazooka to a knife fight Believe me, I get that what he did is a red flag to some. I've noticed that Buffalo fans, especially, are very focused on character -- which is great! Violence towards women is never okay, but I also think it's okay to give people second chances, again, especially when what they did happened as a kid and doesn't show a pattern of behavior. Just my take. In a perfect world, he goes on to become a superstar (for the Bills) and takes the Mike Vick route and uses his position and success to help change the paradigm... Kid is top-10 talent (Tillery is not) if he fell to us in the 2nd, I'd be okay with giving him that chance...

He is. And I never said he was a choirboy, though interesting you'd rather draft a mass murderer who tried to institute a race riot ?... Simmons' incident happened in high school and he's had no issues since then. That doesn't absolve or justify his actions, I've seen the tape, what he did was horrendous. That said, he was an 18 year old kid and people grow and mature. It's unfortunate, but the NFL is full of players who've had past transgressions, Leonard Little was allowed to play after multiple fatal DUIs... Sometimes talent wins out.