glazeduck

QB: Ryan Finley -- great size, great arm, analytics bear out... If there's a later-round QB who goes on to become a success, it'll be Finley. RB: David Montgomery -- only sort of a sleeper, but I think he's got Leveon Bell upside, probably goes in the 3rd or 4th rd Rodney Anderson -- again, only a pseudo-sleeper, probably a day-2 guy... all depends on health, but uber talented Ryquell Armstead -- small school kid with prototype size and athleticism... shows a lot of good traits on the field too. Elijah Holyfield -- phenomenal feet, patience, power, balance and vision. James Williams -- won't be a feature back, but will be a high-end satellite back WR: Deebo Samuel -- another pseudo sleeper, but my bet to be the most "underdrafted" wr of this group. Mecole Hardman -- Looooooooove this kid, just wish we had a need for a dynamic slot guy. Terry McLaurin -- Mecole Hardman Jr. Stanley Morgan Jr. -- suuuuuper high floor, unfortunately (in my opinion) very limited ceiling -- will be a solid #2 guy for a long time in the league... just not what I think Buffalo needs Antoine Wesley -- basically everything you're getting in a guy like Butler or Boykin, a couple rounds later. Won't become Randy Moss, but I could see him becoming Vincent Jackson... TE: Josh Oliver -- agree with everything that's been said about this kid. LOVE his game. Caleb Wilson -- kid was one of the top TE prospects going into the year and disappeared... It's been a rough few years for UCLA and he looks way more athletic and dynamic on tape than his combine numbers suggest. Could be a late round or undrafted steal for someone. OL: Nate Davis -- big, versatile, mean, more athletic than his size suggests Tytus Howard -- probably will be drafted too high to be considered a true sleeper, but very good athlete with great measurables... definitely an intriguing project at the right price Chuma Edoga -- tape ain't great, neither is the culture at USC, but was a highly ranked HS recruit, has great length and solid athleticism for the position... A lot of kids come from SC undeveloped and turn into good ballplayers, he could be one of them. DL: Justin Hollins -- complete project, and probably a rough fit for 43 DE, but phenomenal length and athleticism, great motor, smart kid and a relentless competitor... I'm betting on him outperforming his draft position in the right system Joe Jackson -- just don't get why people are so low on him. Has the potential to be a top 3 guy at his position. Byron Cowart -- there's a LOT to clean up for him physically and personally, but there's a diamond in there somewhere, and he's still super young and learning the DT position. Longer term project, but could lead to a reward in the right culture/system. Khalen Saunders -- another maybe only pseudo sleeper, but sign me up for a guy his size that can do backflips on command... DB: Ugo Amadi -- emotional leader of a tremendously improved Oregon defense. Do-it-all guy who's undersized, has a little honeybadger to his game. Kendall Sheffield -- highly rated HS recruit who will need to redshirt due to injury. High character kid with a lot of solid CB measurables -- injury probably drops his stock below where he'll contribute when healthy. Marvell Tell & Iman Marshall -- see Chuma Edoga... Great athletes, prototype size, underdeveloped.

There's a lot of posters on this board who think that DK Metcalf became a draft prospect when that pic came out and all he is is a chiseled body and a great combine performance... Which is sad, because the reality, for those who were paying attention, is that Metcalf has been one of -- if not the -- top WR prospects for the past couple years. It's funny, you can provide all the + arguments for him in the world and they make no impact, but any reference to "injuries" (which none of us can argue against because we have no idea how those checked out, not to mention the fact that logic would suggest he'd be off the board if his health didn't check out ?) or "route tree!!!" ignoring the fact that he compares physically and in tape review to guys like Calvin Johnson and Nuke Hopkins is all it takes to "win" the argument...

Just a guess -- probably to protect and keep things manageable for the kids -- these are still 21 and 22 year olds... Imagine having to go to 32 job interviews in a matter of weeks, especially when they're as intrusive and intense as these are. Just not really feasible. Or beyond that, imagine being that kid and trying to keep some semblance of life balance in these final weeks -- you wouldn't want to turn any team meeting/interview/workout down... It'd just get to be too much. I don't know if these kids are technically part of the NFLPA yet, but that feels like something that they probably built into the system to manage loads... Probably other reasons as well, but that's the one that comes to my mind...

Hopefully to another team...

This is really all that needs to be said. Period. Full-stop. This franchise goes as Allen goes, so whatever helps him achieve that ceiling. We've shown that we can find undervalued defensive players, we've significantly improved the offensive line issues. To me, the biggest glaring holes of talent on this team are still TE and WR (yes, we've added to that unit, but Foster was undrafted for a reason, Zay has been hot and cold, Brown has issues with migraines and is a one-trick pony and Beasley is both tiny and has battled his own injury issues (Duke Williams is not a guy that should be counted on, at least in the "what is going to help our franchise QB hit his ceiling" discussion...) For a deep-throwing QB who excels in motion, a big-play/uber athlete at WR makes more sense to me than a solid/reliable TE. I just don't see it as a premium position...

So incredibly myopic, got it. I find it hard to believe that a team with a raw rookie QB, a terrible OL and an undrafted rookie as its most dangerous offensive weapon is somehow going to be better than next years'? I just don't see that... I'm far from a sunshine pumper, but we'll be at least middle-of-the road.

That's not even remotely what the time value of money means. Unless you have an incredibly myopic view if the direction this team is headed, it's all but a guarantee that we will be picking later than 9th next year...

My overly simplified logic to trading next year's 1 vs. this year's 2 is twofold... 1. Call it the "gas pricing" strategy -- just like $2.99.99 will always feel less than $3.00, a first round pick will never not be a first round pick, and a second round pick will never BE a first round pick (so it psychologically, could have at least slightly greater perceived value in trade negotiations -- maybe you can get a 5 back or something because of the number)... 2. This year's picks are already set in stone -- we have the 8th pick in the 2nd round -- that's a valuable (relative to the round). Next year's picks are not. Obviously it' hyperbole, but if Q makes some MASSIVE difference and this team wins the Super Bowl, our first round pick next year is 32 -- not a good pick (relative to the round). Beyond that, with all of our free agency acquisitions, it's not hard to envision our pick at least being middle of the pack next year. Time value of money and all that...

Everyone is done evaluating -- have been for weeks now. That I can promise you. Short of a major issue like an injury or something unknown coming out, teams know (or, think they know) who these guys are. That doesn't mean draft strategy isn't continuing to evolve (which is probably more what you're saying)... I said in another thread that if a couple QBs go higher than expected (which they always do) that it wouldn't be unsurprising for Q to fall to 5 or 6. At that point, Buffalo could absolutely get up to get him...

I think you can make that argument -- certainly ONE OF the top WRs. There's a lot of ways to play WR -- not everyone needs to be Desean Jackson fast or run Antonio Brown type routes... When you watch DK's tape a few things stand out: 1. He's extremely difficult to press and is a great hand fighter -- that creates separation 2. His mass + explosion creates a "snowball rolling downhill" effect very quickly, so he's hard to move off his route -- when you're where your QB needs you to be, when he needs you to be there, you don't have to have as much separation (+added bonus of playmaking ability with the ball in his hands) 3. His routes and short area quickness are far from perfect, but his size, strength and general size make him a bear fir defenders to have to work through. If he gets his face across the defender's, he's got him beat, end of story -- that's also separation 4. He's got an enormous catch radius -- that can also create separation both laterally and vertically 5. The concern about his lack of production -- for me -- isn't the lack of production, in itself at all, but rather the inability to have enough game tape to see him play and react to different situations... From the small sample size that there is though, it appears that he's also a very smart, focused and competitive WR. You can see him set up his man mid-route, you see catches that only the most gifted AND focused of players can make, and I don't think I saw one ball thrown his way that he didn't give 110% for. 6. On top of all of that, he can definitely be an effective run blocker, when he wants to be. Cards on the table, I've fully talked myself into DK at this point, and (as has been said many, many times) no question he comes with some uncertainty... But at 9 -- barring Quinnen Williams falling far enough to be gettable -- and with the positive momentum this franchise has going for it, I think hitting on the highest ceiling player in the draft is too exciting of a prospect to pass on. If he's healthy, that is!!!

First of all, I'm as white as they come, so you're barking up the wrong tree there. Second of all, who are all of these "a lot of white wide receivers" that are being "way underdrafted"???? The most successful contemporary white WRs are... Eric Decker -- was coming off of a devastating injury Wes Welker -- tiny, played in what was considered a gimmicky offense in a conference that doesn't play defense Jordy Nelson -- early 2nd round pick -- far from underdrafted Julian Edelman? -- transitioning from playing QB Chris Hogan? -- dude was a lacrosse player Curious to know who all of these brilliant white football players are that you're referring to who were so devastatingly insulted in the draft...

You're right. Figured I'd give him a little benefit of the doubt, but on rereading his post... there's nothing bordering about it.

Boy, someone doesn't bother with subtext, does he? Ignoring your ignorance, and flat-out racism, there's faaaaar too much on the line for coaches and GMs to play racial favorites. Andy Isabella being below "black WRs with much worse production and combine numbers" has more to do with his size and lack of competition than it does with his skin color. But I'm sure you'd be fighting just as hard for his draft status if he were black...

Worth looking at the draft ranges of the players too... Bills brought in 3 WRs slated to go top 50, none later. Meanwhile they brought in 3 later rd. DL. Obviously it's all projection and conjecture at this point, but you could probably also say that the list points to a wr early and a DL later... ?‍♂️

?Yeah, white people have had it soooooo hard...

Except there's statistical precedent here... Of the top 30 all-time leaders in passing yards, you can argue that 3 QBs have "made it" from the Big 12 (and that's including Sam Bradford). Of the top 25 all-time leaders in receiving yards, the best pro is... Wes Welker? Michael Crabtree? Roy Williams? Far from a star-studded list. You can certainly pick out exceptions to the rule, but that doesn't make the rule wrong. The Big 12 doesn't play a lot of defense. I like Brown as a player, but between his size -- not that he can't win a jump ball -- I'm afraid he's going to get destroyed by NFL safeties, and the play style redundancy for the Bills, I'm hoping we pass on him too.

Bills wait until day 2 to take a TE and DL and a lot of this board freaks out. Bills make a big swing on day one (my guess -- trades up for a second, first-rd pick)... Bills figure out a way to get Kendall Sheffield. Bills don't draft a LB until late in day 3, if at all...

This wouldn't surprise me, but would also be disappointing... I know "good enough" is never good enough, but I think our defense, as is, really is good enough to keep us competitive... JA needs weapons. Beasley is a nice add and I like Smokey Brown, but the jury is still very much out on Zay and, while he had an impressive second half to his year, I worry that some of Foster's success was a function of teams: a) making Allen beat them deep; and b) not having much of a scouting report on him/underestimating him as a player. Another way to say the above: I think adding a defensive piece or two could take us from, say a B+ to maybe an A-... Adding someone like DK and Irv Smith could take our offense from C+/B- to potentially a B+/A- range... I like the larger bump, personally...

Too much logic in here, please knock that off!!! There's also the point to be made that DK is just different and fits a need that we have (whereas, Brown does not). Regardless of where he was on the pecking order at Ole Miss, AJ Brown would duplicate Beasley and Zay in too many ways for it to make sense. Buffalo has no one who can do what DK can.

Comparisons to Allen go beyond that... Allen was not a "play it safe" pick -- that would've been Rosen. Allen was a "taking a shot at greatness" pick. Same goes for DK. I said in another thread (or maybe earlier in this one, can't remember) I want, and think Bills fans deserve, a team of greatness, not really goodness. It feels to me like that's what the front office is looking for, to build something special. THAT, more than anything else, is why I'm on the DK train. Let's do something special for once...

Go read the article I posted and you might change your stance a bit. The point is that DK isn't "like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft." He's physically superior to nearly every WR to EVER come through the draft. And more interestingly, the ones who are comparable to him athletically over the past few years are all stars in the league. As a Pac-12 guy, I like Harry a lot too, but he can't sniff DK's jock athletically. And I understand the excitement around Fant and Hock, but I also think one of them will be there to trade up for in the 20s. TEs just do not have as much impact on the game as other positions.

The thing that I don't think most people grasp about DK is how exceptionally rare of an athlete he is. Yes, in terms of purely size, I suppose he could be somewhat similar to James Hardy (R.I.P. You'll never be able to convince me otherwise that a significant amount of him busting wasn't Edwards' fault, but that's another conversation...). I came across this article yesterday <--- DEFINITELY WORTH A READ, it's written for fantasy purposes, but the point works for real football too. It's not just that DK is big, or muscular, or fast, or long, or can jump high... It's that all of those things, in addition to his work on the football field (watch Simms' video at the beginning of this thread or Nate Burleson's breakdown of him in one of the threads) make him a football player that is exceptionally difficult to defend. In the history of football, DK has very few comparisons who touch his athletic measurables. There's a lot of talk about Jonah Williams' floor in his thread, to it's not hard to argue that DK's might even be higher. As I said in an earlier post, if the medicals check out, I'd be very happy with DK at 9. DL is deep, TE is deep, OL is deep and less of an immediate priority...

If we're talking the type of price that many on here are willing to pay for him (mid-late 1/early 2) then we're going to have to strongly agree to disagree. Give me DK, Harry, Butler, Brown or Samuel or Hardman (both of whom are better versions of what you're describing) over Campbell all day. This offense likely won't have one main playmaker, but it has 2 deep threats to stretch the defense vertically, two guys who can make plays in the intermediate game, and two RBs who can at least keep LBs honest... To me, this offense is lacking a guy who can be a bully, who can get first downs by boxing out a DB or go up and get a jump ball. That's decidedly not Campbell... If we're talking 3rd or 4th round, still wouldn't love it, but would be fine with it.

Fair enough. Agree that the context within those statistics is important. My point was more along the lines of showing the poor fit between what people think they're drafting and who he's been so far. Sure, he could be a deep threat because he's fast, but that's also how you end up with Cordarrelle Patterson, and I think we can all agree that that's not who we're wanting to draft with our first round pick...

Quinnen Williams had 26 and 10 in 24 games, and half of those games came as a backup against SEC linemen. Perhaps "struggled" wasn't the right word, but if Ed Oliver is a top 10 pick, I would've expected him to be an absolute wrecking ball for Houston, especially considering the lack of talent across the LOS. 1 1/2 TFLs and 1/3 of a sack per game isn't exactly wrecking things in my opinion. Now juxtapose that against NFL linemen... He's got high bust potential in my mind (and I don't even give a $#!+ about the coach blowup stuff, but that causes questions too...)