glazeduck

Bills wait until day 2 to take a TE and DL and a lot of this board freaks out. Bills make a big swing on day one (my guess -- trades up for a second, first-rd pick)... Bills figure out a way to get Kendall Sheffield. Bills don't draft a LB until late in day 3, if at all...

This wouldn't surprise me, but would also be disappointing... I know "good enough" is never good enough, but I think our defense, as is, really is good enough to keep us competitive... JA needs weapons. Beasley is a nice add and I like Smokey Brown, but the jury is still very much out on Zay and, while he had an impressive second half to his year, I worry that some of Foster's success was a function of teams: a) making Allen beat them deep; and b) not having much of a scouting report on him/underestimating him as a player. Another way to say the above: I think adding a defensive piece or two could take us from, say a B+ to maybe an A-... Adding someone like DK and Irv Smith could take our offense from C+/B- to potentially a B+/A- range... I like the larger bump, personally...

Too much logic in here, please knock that off!!! There's also the point to be made that DK is just different and fits a need that we have (whereas, Brown does not). Regardless of where he was on the pecking order at Ole Miss, AJ Brown would duplicate Beasley and Zay in too many ways for it to make sense. Buffalo has no one who can do what DK can.

Comparisons to Allen go beyond that... Allen was not a "play it safe" pick -- that would've been Rosen. Allen was a "taking a shot at greatness" pick. Same goes for DK. I said in another thread (or maybe earlier in this one, can't remember) I want, and think Bills fans deserve, a team of greatness, not really goodness. It feels to me like that's what the front office is looking for, to build something special. THAT, more than anything else, is why I'm on the DK train. Let's do something special for once...

Go read the article I posted and you might change your stance a bit. The point is that DK isn't "like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft." He's physically superior to nearly every WR to EVER come through the draft. And more interestingly, the ones who are comparable to him athletically over the past few years are all stars in the league. As a Pac-12 guy, I like Harry a lot too, but he can't sniff DK's jock athletically. And I understand the excitement around Fant and Hock, but I also think one of them will be there to trade up for in the 20s. TEs just do not have as much impact on the game as other positions.

The thing that I don't think most people grasp about DK is how exceptionally rare of an athlete he is. Yes, in terms of purely size, I suppose he could be somewhat similar to James Hardy (R.I.P. You'll never be able to convince me otherwise that a significant amount of him busting wasn't Edwards' fault, but that's another conversation...). I came across this article yesterday <--- DEFINITELY WORTH A READ, it's written for fantasy purposes, but the point works for real football too. It's not just that DK is big, or muscular, or fast, or long, or can jump high... It's that all of those things, in addition to his work on the football field (watch Simms' video at the beginning of this thread or Nate Burleson's breakdown of him in one of the threads) make him a football player that is exceptionally difficult to defend. In the history of football, DK has very few comparisons who touch his athletic measurables. There's a lot of talk about Jonah Williams' floor in his thread, to it's not hard to argue that DK's might even be higher. As I said in an earlier post, if the medicals check out, I'd be very happy with DK at 9. DL is deep, TE is deep, OL is deep and less of an immediate priority...

If we're talking the type of price that many on here are willing to pay for him (mid-late 1/early 2) then we're going to have to strongly agree to disagree. Give me DK, Harry, Butler, Brown or Samuel or Hardman (both of whom are better versions of what you're describing) over Campbell all day. This offense likely won't have one main playmaker, but it has 2 deep threats to stretch the defense vertically, two guys who can make plays in the intermediate game, and two RBs who can at least keep LBs honest... To me, this offense is lacking a guy who can be a bully, who can get first downs by boxing out a DB or go up and get a jump ball. That's decidedly not Campbell... If we're talking 3rd or 4th round, still wouldn't love it, but would be fine with it.

Fair enough. Agree that the context within those statistics is important. My point was more along the lines of showing the poor fit between what people think they're drafting and who he's been so far. Sure, he could be a deep threat because he's fast, but that's also how you end up with Cordarrelle Patterson, and I think we can all agree that that's not who we're wanting to draft with our first round pick...

Quinnen Williams had 26 and 10 in 24 games, and half of those games came as a backup against SEC linemen. Perhaps "struggled" wasn't the right word, but if Ed Oliver is a top 10 pick, I would've expected him to be an absolute wrecking ball for Houston, especially considering the lack of talent across the LOS. 1 1/2 TFLs and 1/3 of a sack per game isn't exactly wrecking things in my opinion. Now juxtapose that against NFL linemen... He's got high bust potential in my mind (and I don't even give a $#!+ about the coach blowup stuff, but that causes questions too...)

A lot of folks on here really want Parris Campbell, I presume because they think his fast 40 time equates to him being a deep threat. But a 4.5 yard average depth of target (aDOT) is the opposite of that. For every time he was targeted 20 yards downfield (for example) he would have to be targeted another 4 times at basically zero yards to accomplish that. And those are just targets! Add to that history of sketchy hands and I just can't see him being a good fit... If we're looking for a big play guy on screens and whatnot, fine, but that seems to be the opposite of the team we're building.

It's what makes the draft so much fun! We all think we know certain things, and then Tyson Alualu ends up as the 9th (11th?) overall pick and it sends the entire sports world to their therapist to question their very existence! I tend to try to take in as much of it as I can and then suss through it logically, using the filter that the closer we are to the draft, the more likely it is to be BS to determine what I believe.

As someone who, in the past has known a few things, I can say that this is true. What's also true, unfortunately, is that we live in a world where wild, complete speculation isn't held accountable because we all just go onto the next thing... plus, there's enough sports outlets and talking heads out there to cover just about every conceivable hot take and outlandish inevitability, so somebody's hot take was going to be right. Then there's the challenge of misinformation, every team uses the media when they need to, and some sources willingly spread false information if it means a tip on something real down the road. Too complex a system to ever ferret out who's looped in, who actually knows what, who's just guessing and who's willfully full of $#!+.

0. Quinnen Williams falls to 5 (because several QBs are traded up for and taken at the top) 1. Bills trade #9, 2019 3rd rd. pick & 2020 3rd rd. pick for #5 to draft Williams. 1b. Bills trade #40 & one of our 4th rd. picks into the late 20s to draft a big WR (order of preference: DK, Butler, Harry) 3. Trade other 4th rd pick & both 7s to get best available TE (if one of top Hock, Fant, Irv, Sternberger, Dax, Knox, Warring, Oliver or Mack are there); Tytus Howard or Nate Davis if not 5. Best available Edge rusher 6. Elijah Holyfield

That all may be true, and I like Hock too, but this team is still too devoid of talent to use a top-10 pick on at TE that's not an obvious Lebron James type player. Especially in a draft when 3rd and 4th rd TEs will be starters in the league -- the delta between Hock and, say, Warring or Oliver doesn't warrant that kind of overspend, in my opinion.

I like a lot of those guys too... I think we're starting to see why the Bills better hope QBs go early. We're in a little bit of no-man's land at 9 if they don't... It's unequivocally too early for Hock or any TE -- same with Marquise, or likely any WR -- Taylor might be gone, Jonah might be a guard (which we no longer need as desperately)... If QBs go early, I think there's a distinct chance that Quinnen could fall far enough that he'd be gettable without throwing in the kitchen sink. If they don't, I'm definitely down with the idea of trading down, if not, I'm starting to embrace the idea of swinging for the fences... Sweat or DK should be there and at that point, probably pose the biggest potential impact on the roster going forward...

A lot of respected NFL people think he's the best DT to come out since Warren Sapp... But sure, let's take an undersized DT who struggled to dominate in the AAC...

Yes to both at the right price, please!

It's true, Harry did not benefit from good QB play and despite a lack of deep speed (which, you're right, we already have on the roster), he DOES bring great YAC ability. I'd be very okay in a trade down situation with Harry...

First of all, college productivity isn't any sort of guarantee in the pros. Mike Haas won the Belitnikoff award and was one of the more productive college WRs of all time and he couldn't even hang on a practice squad. USC's Mike Williams, Limas Sweed, David Terrell, etc.... DK's productivity -- when healthy (especially when accounting for the fact that he was playing alongside 2 other NFL-caliber WRs) -- can easily be considered "productive". It's not like the dude chose to get hurt. Couple that with his physical traits and you have the makeup of a potential star wr. If you're drafting him, you're not doing it based on what he was in college anyway; you're doing it based on what he could be in the pros, which, if he gets there, will be another step or two above guys like Harry, Brown, Butler, etc.

To me it's not (and never has been) about getting a "#1" -- to your point, that's a dying paradigm in the NFL. I've posted this before, but this is a great article that describes why: https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/debunking-the-myth-of-the-weak-2019-wr-class. To me, drafting DK would mean taking a chance on adding 3 VERY important aspects to the offense: Big Play Ability -- we've got deep speed and guys who can win on short/intermediate routes, but we don't have a guy who can take a simple route to the house. Reliable Target on important downs -- obviously this is all assuming he pans out, but sometimes in football, you just need to have a guy that you know can go get you a first down... Who is that guy on the current roster? DK is fast, strong and physical and he wins contested balls (love his quote, calling 50/50 balls "99/1" balls No question, he comes with some risk, but so does Ed Oliver, Noah Fant, N'Keal Harry... and guys like Wilkins, Hockenson, and others come with limited upside... As I said in my first comment in this thread, swing for the fences...

No. That's not how NFL defenses work.

I got ya... Yeah, I can see those styles being similar... Honestly, I think Brown and Samuel are the best bets to be the top WR in the class but we NEED a physical big body. Of those 3, I do think Neal has the highest floor, without question...

My comment on DK wasn't referring to deep balls, although he could absolutely be a deep ball nightmare... I was saying "go big or go home" -- go for the special player, not the really good one... Butler isn't the athlete that Moss was and ditto for Julio and Harry. But definitely think they'll both have good careers. Medicals have to check out, but if they do, 100% agree. I think you can even trade down and still get him.

We can always hope, but I think the best way to think about Williams is as a free lotto ticket -- don't expect him to be anything, but if he pays off it's (obviously) gravy...

Great topic... WANT Mid-first: DK Metcalf -- a lot on this board don't want him, and I get it, but I want a dynastic Bills team, not a *good* team... I say swing for the fences -- that's DK. Late first/early/mid-second: Butler -- tantalizing potential and not hard to see how a guy with his catch radius could help a QB with less-than-pinpoint accuracy. Harry -- love how physical he plays. With Smokey and Foster stretching the sidelines, he could be a matchup nightmare against smaller DBs and/or LBs. AJ Brown/Deebo Samuel -- smaller dudes but would be very happy with either. Brown just seems to be a natural, but I question his ceiling... I LOOOOOOVE Samuel. If we didn't have an entire roster of 6' WRs I'd be dying for him to join the Bills, but would ideally like a bigger dude. Mid-rounds: Riley Ridley -- seems to have a safe floor and a high ceiling... may end up being a great value. Mecole Hardman -- kills me that we signed Beasley to such a big deal because this guy is exactly who we need. Multipurpose weapon, great kick returner, innate ability to get open in the slot... Probably won't happen but he'll definitely be a fun one to watch. Miles Boykin -- craaaaaazy potential, seems like the type of guy we could let grow slowly with 4 solid WRs. Late: Antoine Wesley -- poor man's Butler Preston Williams/Anthony Johnson/Lil'Jordan Humphrey/Tyre Brady -- prototype big WRs with "artificial" (or at least superficial) deflation Jalen Hurd -- just starting to play the position. Great athlete, big upside. AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE First Couple Rounds: JJ Arcega-Whiteside -- TE in a WRs body, one-trick pony (and that trick is starting to die out in the analytics-driven NFL) Parris Campbell -- Speed blinds, drops nullify. Kelvin Harmon -- Separation is the name of the game in the NFL these days. If he was a Metcalf-like athlete he'd be a no-brainer, but bad athleticism coupled with poor ability to separate means trouble against pro DBs. Isabella -- Sorry, just don't see it. If he was as good as many here think he is, we would've heard of him prior to the senior bowl. Later: Hunter Renfrow -- Small hands aren't worth what he could produce... Not like he's the second coming of Randy Moss. David Sills -- See JJAW, pedestrian athlete. As a UDFA, sure, but don't waste a draft pick on him.