glazeduck

Interesting article... Extremely well researched and detail-oriented, yet -- as others have said -- feels like they're trying to build evidence to one or two specific things and then, don't ever get there, use really inconsistent logic and provide a conclusion that feels almost entirely arbitrary -- as though the thousands of words spent in all of the analysis were completely wasted (spoiler: they were). It's funny to me, too that (unmentioned, literally anywhere) everyone just kind of assumes that Beane and McD will just follow their same trend every year and not eventually treat the draft like a poker game and go away from their trends. What this all says to me is 2 main things: 1. Overall, we're in a great spot. We have minimal needs, lots of flexibility, lots of outs. We're seemingly talking to teams ahead and behind us, we're talking about trading for veteran players, etc. 2. As it relates to predicting specific players, really all we're left with is the larger data of who we've met with and worked out (quite a few names) and a sketch of roster strength and depth -- all of which has been talked ad nauseum -- biggest needs 3T, TE, alpha WR, DE, OT, youth at RB, etc.

Mike Williams (LAC), Amari Cooper, Corey Davis (to a certain extent), Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards... It's almost as if drafting a wr in the top 10 isn't an automatic curse to said wr... hmm...

Definitely provides options -- RB that you like falls to you in the draft? Cool Get a good offer for Shady? Cool. Stand pat with 2 historically proven guys and a younger buck who's shown decent production when given the chance? Cool Anyone think a Shady/McCoy swap might make some sense now?

It's all cost-dependent, sure. But if the cost were palatable, Quinnen Williams is a superstar. He's head and shoulders better than the other "very good to excellent ones at 9".

The agility metrics weren't great, no question, but the thing that always gets misunderstood is that agility only matters in the context of using it to excel in football -- it's one of a number of aspects, along with explosion, catch radius, speed, strength, bulk, demeanor, hand fighting, flexibility, body control, hand strength, intelligence, etc. to help a WR get open. DK has all of the rest in spades, so his agility -- especially when used correctly -- shouldn't be a major issue. The injury thing is indefensible as none of us know how that checked out, so I think it goes without saying that any pro-Metcalf thought goes hand-in-hand with assuming he's healthy. Plus it's boring as hell to discuss...

Lawrence will be gone before 40 (and doesn't really fit our need at 3T) and Harmon will be loooooong gone by 74. I like your taste in players though! ?

To each their own, I think their position dictates a relative difference though... A WR that's that big, fast and strong will always be a tough cover and can always be used effectively so long as he's healthy (that's always the caveat, but since we can't do anything about that I tend to leave out that bit) which is what I mean by "safeish". Maybe he doesn't become Calvin Johnson II, but if his floor is Tyrell Williams II, that's something. That, to me, makes the gamble of taking him worth it, whereas I see Ed Oliver's floor as being a commentator for Houston Cougars football in a few years ?

Quickly, here's my logic on not being a fan of Oliver... I've said on multiple DK Metcalf threads that I want the Bills to take a homerun swing with their first pick, but that's oversimplifying it --- I want the Bills to take a "safeish" homerun swing. DK, in my opinion, is a guy with a very high floor and practically zero ceiling. To me, that's the type of guy I'm looking for given where this franchise is. I recognize that Oliver has a high ceiling, and that he fits a need too, but a DT playing in the mid-260s, who's shown to maybe not quite be a consistent team player is a guy who has almost no floor, either. We can't afford to completely whiff on this pick. Another Aaron Maybin type pick could seriously derail the momentum we've started building. THAT'S why I don't want Oliver, he's an undo risk when there are FAAAAR safer bets at his position who could be had quite a bit cheaper. (I also think that doing everything we can to make Josh Allen's life and development easier should be our absolute first priority, but I digress...)

I can't believe I agree with you on something!

? all good here. Draft can't get here fast enough...

It's not meaning well, it's what I'm seeing with my own eyes. Experts are wrong constantly. Again, I get that I'm in the minority here, that's fine.

Donald is great, that doesn't mean the next guy who looks like him will be too. Oliver's natural playing weight is going to be in the 270s, possibly even 260s. I'm not exaggerating when I say that he'll routinely be giving up 60-70 lbs on the guys across the LOS from him. Count me out.

Solid sample size of one there...

That's quite the prediction for a grossly undersized defensive lineman... Dude's gonna get swallowed up in the NFL, just watch.

Nobody else here wants to believe me, but Oliver's gonna bust. This is the best thing that could possibly happen for us...

Big body, big arm. To some, that's all you need to see (not saying that's a good point, btw...)

Again, I'm not saying it's 100% realistic... I do think NYG would be motivated to move back though, so our 3 and, say next year's 2 could possibly be enough...

I just don't think there's a ton of value at RB any earlier and would much rather fill needs at WR, TE, and DT. To me, the difference between the top guys like Jacobs, Henderson, Harris, Sanders and Montgomery to day 3 guys like Holyfield and Ryquell Armstead is not significant at all, relative to the other spots we're needing to fill...

Great accumulation of thoughts here... To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in. You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome... My dream scenario (emphasis on dream): 1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams 2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK 3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE 4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds

You are looking at (and talking about) the smokescreen.

Good lord that'd be a disaster! ?

Really surprised everyone is taking the bait here. At best this is Miller grasping at straws, at worst its false info leaking during "lying season". If anything, I think it's damning evidence against the likelihood of Oliver to the Bills... To me, more interesting would be who are the players who haven't been linked to Buffalo by "sources"? Off the top of my head... Taylor, Sweat, Q. Williams, either LB...

I'd be shocked if TB takes him (think there's a much higher likelihood of them trading out of that spot if he falls there) -- he's not a NT, but could ostensibly be tried at 5T? The Jets are the Jets, there's absolutely no way to know what they're thinking, but if they DID take Q, I'd be interested to see what their plans for him were, or if Leonard might be available? I'd gladly take him as our 3T (not that I think they'd trade with us, but it'd be intriguing...) Similar deal with SF -- if they take Q, one of their young DL may become available. Doubt it'd be Buckner, but Armstead or Solomon Thomas might be nice, young affordable pickups in that event. I think there's a real chance he falls to 5 -- especially when you take into consideration the fact that it's entirely possible one or more teams trade up for a QB... Whether its the GMen or somebody else, he's way too good to fall too much farther than that. I think we'd need to trade with TB to secure him if he got that far...

Of course there's an argument that he could be BPA at 9. He's a generational athlete at a position of need whose comps are some of the best WRs of the past few decades (if not ever) -- that is the argument. While none of your points above are really wrong, they're also not necessarily the point, and I think that's the biggest thing that Metcalf deniers are missing. Not every WR needs to be a blur when it comes to short area quickness. Not every WR is going to win with precise routes. A guy built like Mecole Hardman is going to have a natural advantage in the agility game, just like a motorcycle is going to be more agile than a mack truck -- that doesn't mean that the motorcycle can't be more effective in certain things. DK Metcalf wasn't ever going to be a jitterbug, but if you watch his film, look at his makeup (height/weight/bulk/strength/wingspan) and how he uses those to his advantage, he doesn't need to. As others have posted, we wouldn't be asking him to run the same routes as, say, Cole Beasley, and that's okay. To your point about not being the best player on his team, that's also not really the point -- firstly, he was every bit as good as Brown when he was on the field, secondly he fits the type of player we need far better than Brown. Everyone has their own opinions on the draft and its prospects, that's what makes it so much fun, but to say that DK Metcalf doesn't have star potential or that "there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none" is peak silliness. It may end being Oliver (size), Sweat (still developing as a pass-rusher), Taylor (can he transition to LT?), Hock (value of drafting TE at 9?), Burns (size), or (god help us...) Gary (unproven at his projected position) but each of these guys have as many question marks as DK Metcalf.

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