glazeduck

For the life of me I cannot see why everyone is so gaga about Oliver. If he falls to us at 9 and the braintrust thinks he's the guy, then fine. I'm not a pro scout for a reason. But there are people on here talking about trading up for him and I'm just...

Quinnen or DK. Safe is boring. Safe -- especially in a small market -- leads to first-round playoff losses. Go big or go home.

It's a fair concern, but as I've said on here a couple times, every pro comment of DK comes with the caveat that his health checks out. To have to acknowledge that in every post would be excruciating, so for the sake of discussion, just set that aside. If his health doesn't check out, then totally agree, he's off the board (or way way lower). Not to mention that if he has injury concerns, so do Marquise Brown and others. After that, I don't really have any major question marks for him, aside from him simply not being the absolute perfect specimen for a WR. The agility stuff doesn't bother me, a semi-truck isn't going to be able to move like a motorcycle, it's just unrealistic to even expect that. I find it interesting that "not being 6'3 with crazy wingspan, huge hands, and otherworldly explosion/athleticism" isn't really a knock for the rest of the WR class, yet somehow less than-ideal agility is somehow the killshot for DK's future -- it all needs to be taken into context with everything else, and I see rare rare rare traits everywhere for him...

Boy, some of you guys are just fantastic at taking things out of context.

Not at all. Just pointing out that just because we had a bad experience with drafting a WR in the top 10, doesn't automatically make it a death knell for that pick. There's been plenty of successful (and plenty of unsuccessful) WRs picked in the top 10.

There's also nothing saying that we can't trade up from the second to get Christian Wilkins (meh) or Dexter Lawrence (me likey) as well... Hahahaha

I believe Saunders will be a very good pro, yep. There's also trading for Gerald McCoy. There's also plenty of unsigned FAs: Suh, Jernigan, Liuget, Allen Bailey, Wilkerson, Bennie Logan, the list goes on... Then there's the potential availability of DTs on teams who draft Quinnen, Oliver, Tillery, etc. I also also also like both Phillipses to get more snaps this season, so I'm not exactly terrified about not currently having our 4th DT.

Wendell Smallwood?!?!?!?!? @Cornette's Commentary, you do realize there are more ways to replace one defensive lineman than just our first round pick, right? I've seen you make this statement multiple times and it's beyond hyperbolic (and silly).

Interesting article... Extremely well researched and detail-oriented, yet -- as others have said -- feels like they're trying to build evidence to one or two specific things and then, don't ever get there, use really inconsistent logic and provide a conclusion that feels almost entirely arbitrary -- as though the thousands of words spent in all of the analysis were completely wasted (spoiler: they were). It's funny to me, too that (unmentioned, literally anywhere) everyone just kind of assumes that Beane and McD will just follow their same trend every year and not eventually treat the draft like a poker game and go away from their trends. What this all says to me is 2 main things: 1. Overall, we're in a great spot. We have minimal needs, lots of flexibility, lots of outs. We're seemingly talking to teams ahead and behind us, we're talking about trading for veteran players, etc. 2. As it relates to predicting specific players, really all we're left with is the larger data of who we've met with and worked out (quite a few names) and a sketch of roster strength and depth -- all of which has been talked ad nauseum -- biggest needs 3T, TE, alpha WR, DE, OT, youth at RB, etc.

Mike Williams (LAC), Amari Cooper, Corey Davis (to a certain extent), Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards... It's almost as if drafting a wr in the top 10 isn't an automatic curse to said wr... hmm...

Definitely provides options -- RB that you like falls to you in the draft? Cool Get a good offer for Shady? Cool. Stand pat with 2 historically proven guys and a younger buck who's shown decent production when given the chance? Cool Anyone think a Shady/McCoy swap might make some sense now?

It's all cost-dependent, sure. But if the cost were palatable, Quinnen Williams is a superstar. He's head and shoulders better than the other "very good to excellent ones at 9".

The agility metrics weren't great, no question, but the thing that always gets misunderstood is that agility only matters in the context of using it to excel in football -- it's one of a number of aspects, along with explosion, catch radius, speed, strength, bulk, demeanor, hand fighting, flexibility, body control, hand strength, intelligence, etc. to help a WR get open. DK has all of the rest in spades, so his agility -- especially when used correctly -- shouldn't be a major issue. The injury thing is indefensible as none of us know how that checked out, so I think it goes without saying that any pro-Metcalf thought goes hand-in-hand with assuming he's healthy. Plus it's boring as hell to discuss...

Lawrence will be gone before 40 (and doesn't really fit our need at 3T) and Harmon will be loooooong gone by 74. I like your taste in players though! ?

To each their own, I think their position dictates a relative difference though... A WR that's that big, fast and strong will always be a tough cover and can always be used effectively so long as he's healthy (that's always the caveat, but since we can't do anything about that I tend to leave out that bit) which is what I mean by "safeish". Maybe he doesn't become Calvin Johnson II, but if his floor is Tyrell Williams II, that's something. That, to me, makes the gamble of taking him worth it, whereas I see Ed Oliver's floor as being a commentator for Houston Cougars football in a few years ?

Quickly, here's my logic on not being a fan of Oliver... I've said on multiple DK Metcalf threads that I want the Bills to take a homerun swing with their first pick, but that's oversimplifying it --- I want the Bills to take a "safeish" homerun swing. DK, in my opinion, is a guy with a very high floor and practically zero ceiling. To me, that's the type of guy I'm looking for given where this franchise is. I recognize that Oliver has a high ceiling, and that he fits a need too, but a DT playing in the mid-260s, who's shown to maybe not quite be a consistent team player is a guy who has almost no floor, either. We can't afford to completely whiff on this pick. Another Aaron Maybin type pick could seriously derail the momentum we've started building. THAT'S why I don't want Oliver, he's an undo risk when there are FAAAAR safer bets at his position who could be had quite a bit cheaper. (I also think that doing everything we can to make Josh Allen's life and development easier should be our absolute first priority, but I digress...)

I can't believe I agree with you on something!

? all good here. Draft can't get here fast enough...

It's not meaning well, it's what I'm seeing with my own eyes. Experts are wrong constantly. Again, I get that I'm in the minority here, that's fine.

Donald is great, that doesn't mean the next guy who looks like him will be too. Oliver's natural playing weight is going to be in the 270s, possibly even 260s. I'm not exaggerating when I say that he'll routinely be giving up 60-70 lbs on the guys across the LOS from him. Count me out.

Solid sample size of one there...

That's quite the prediction for a grossly undersized defensive lineman... Dude's gonna get swallowed up in the NFL, just watch.

Nobody else here wants to believe me, but Oliver's gonna bust. This is the best thing that could possibly happen for us...

Big body, big arm. To some, that's all you need to see (not saying that's a good point, btw...)