glazeduck

Pitts - hell yes! Harris - god no!

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.

Never in a million years could this happen, but this was a fun one... 39. Jaelan Phillips EDGE Miami (FL) 67. Alim McNeill DT North Carolina State 70. Brevin Jordan TE Miami (FL) 93. D'Ante Smith OT East Carolina 119. Nico Collins WR Michigan 146. Paulson Adebo CB Stanford 158. Jamin Davis LB Kentucky 174. Jermar Jefferson RB Oregon State 178. Joshua Kaindoh EDGE Florida State 215. Jonathan Adams Jr. WR Arkansas State 234. Olaijah Griffin CB USC

Everett will get paid, I think, if for nothing else, than just how bad this FA class is at TE. I'm indifferent on Raymond. I can see the appeal, but you also have to wonder why he's never really popped in an offense that's basically held the door wide open for someone *to* pop.

I know it doesn't really add anything to this conversation, but I think folks are underestimating the quality of FAs and cuts we'll be seeing this year. Obviously $ is somewhat tight, but with a handful of restructures (which can often benefit the player as well) we'll have some money to spend. Barring a major swing elsewhere, which doesn't feel overly likely, I very much doubt we'll be looking at backups and 3rd stringers to fill in starting spots when the dust settles...

It's worth pointing out that the folks making the decision of who to select are also the folks who have firsthand knowledge of how our defensive schemes and playcalling had to (or didn't have to) adjust to accommodate for a deficiency at CB2. Better coverage improves the pass rush; better pass rush improves coverage -- that sort of thing. I guess what I'm saying is just because it's perceived to be a lesser role in the defense, does not mean that it isn't/wasn't an issue, and didn't attribute to other positions where there are also perceived issues... It's also not factoring in free agency (more decisions the same people get to make!!!) and offhand, it's looking like DL free agency will be more robust than CB...

Everett is the only TE I'd have even a modicum of interest in as a FA. Even then, if he was going to be a consistent weapon in the passing game that would've happened by now...

Kind of the crux of my post, right? What strategy would you take in filling our needs. To me, if you can package 1, 2, and 3 and get Pitts and, say 2 6s back, I think that'd be a massive win. Our personnel dept. has shown an ability to mine gold from a number of different positions (CB, S, OT, specifically) so for me it's "fill in the other gaps in FA, swing for the fences on a true impact guy, and build depth through sleeper picks". To me, the biggest thing holding this whole thing back is another true difference maker -- whether its Pitts, Waddle or a pass rusher they deem is elite (and somehow gettable via trade-up), I think that's a move you have to make.

IF he goes that high, then I agree, we can only afford to swing so big. That said, QBs, LTs and pass rushers always get pushed up the board. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw all go ahead of him, and it's conceivable that Mac Jones, an edge rusher or two, another OT or two, and Waddle or Chase go ahead of him too. Would have to work out right for us, but if he were there at 12 or 13, it'd be worth our 1, 2 and 3, I think.

This is shaping up to be an extremely interesting offseason... On the one hand, we're now one of the best teams in the league, with most of the necessary foundational pieces to truly compete for a title. On the other hand, we have a lot of needs to address, limited cap space, and a back-of-the-round draft slot. I had a longer version of this written out but it became a tl/dr post, so instead of going super deep into my thinking, here's how I'd like us to approach the offseason, philosophy and examples or specifics... Needs (not necessarily in priority order): #2 CB: While a Patrick Peterson would be sweet, McBeane's shown their abilities to evaluate and find underrated CBs. Because of that (even though it's arguably our biggest need), shouldn't be a big "spend" -- I'd look for a younger, mid-tier, high-upside CB that would excel in our zone scheme (Kevin King, Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, just a few examples) Milano replacement: Another spot I think you'll find "value" at -- need a guy who excels in coverage. Thomas Davis is the name that instantly stands out for obvious reasons, but Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mychal Kendricks, Malcolm Smith, and Todd Davis might all fit the bill at a reasonable cost as well. Pass Rush: This to me is our most glaring need, it's also the most difficult to come by. If there's a reasonable option in the draft, I'd be open to it, but usually those guys go top-15. Ryan Kerrigan or Olivier Vernon might offer the best combo of affordability/availability/performance for the value. On the interior, it's looking like Kawaan Short might get released, again, obvious reasons why that might make sense. OL Help: sounds like retaining Mongo is a matter of working out the #, who knows with Williams, and obviously Ford will be back. Barring a surprise cut, I'm not sure this is a position that we'll see a lot of change in (unless Williams bolts). Kelechi Osemele is someone who might be worth looking into, on the older side of things, but he's a road grader when healthy. Safety depth: This is an underrated one for me. Both Poyer and Hyde are getting up there in years and as others have pointed out, both have reasonably large cap hits. Malik Booker is a guy who I would LOVE to see us sign. He'll probably be more expensive than a lesser need like this should afford, due to his top-10 draft pedigree, but if we can get him cheap enough, I think he'd thrive under McDermott. Absent that, there are a number of lesser-rated CBs in the draft that I think would be tremendous safeties (DD Lenoir, Shaun Wade, Olijiah Griffin, to name a few) TE: While this is absolutely not our most pressing need, it's where I'd love to see us swing big. The TE FA sucks and we just saw what having an impact TE can do for your offense. It'd be costly, but I'd love to see us put a package of picks together to go get Kyle Pitts. He's big, so he'd help in the RZ and on short-distance plays, he's fast and agile so he'd help in stretching the field vertically, he's basically a big-bodied WR and TE in one. We saw what this offense can do with one great receiving weapon, imagine adding that element... RB: If we swing big on Pitts, this would either have to be a vet-min guy or later rd draft pick. I'm sure a lot of you like Patterson, but to me, the best RB in this draft, relative to where he'll be drafted is Jermar Jefferson. That said, there's a number of guys who could probably be had in the 5th/6th range that could work (Jefferson, Sermon, Hubbard) Other: Josh Dobbs for backup QB Late rd. draft depth guys -- swing for the fences: Joshua Kaindoah, Jonathan Adams Jr., EDIT: Nico Collins will also be severely under-drafted.

That was several years ago and he clearly had some personal stuff going on. He had a very good year at Miami and is a prototype stud DE. This is all for fun, so of course in real life all of that stuff will be vetted, if there's still red flags then of course you pass on him, but in real life (as long as those things check out) he's very likely a top-20 pick.

I did a LOT of trades (because where's the fun otherwise???) but this is my favorite result so far (most of these values are ludicrous but it's fun to dream!): 50: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami 71: Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami 98: Tyler Shelvin, NT, LSU 111: Nico Collins, WR, Michigan 116. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M 117. Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford 136. Ben Cleveland, OG, Georgia 137. Shaun Wade, CB/S, Ohio State 225. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State Also added Tennessee's 2022 2nd rd. pick and LAR's 5th.

It's fine to say that a lot of QBs are overpaid, I don't think anyone will disagree with you. And yes, in a vacuum, if teams were tighter on their spending to that position, the market would, in theory, go down. What you're not accounting for is the scarcity of talent at the position. MOST even viable QBs are drafted out of the first round, usually in the top 10 picks, or so. So what you're not accounting for is using premium draft capital every couple years to make sure you've got a suitable replacement. And that's assuming you're even able to get high enough in the draft to get a guy you want. Then there's the development and progression -- not every QB pans out, so you're looking at some amount of loss with regard to those premium draft picks. On top of that, you have to account for the chemistry between QB and OL, QB and WR, QB and HC/OC -- QBs are absolutely vital to success in football, it's why they're paid what they're paid. To me, if your strategy were to be the old LA Clippers of the NFL, focused only on revenue, your solution would probably work okay. But if you're trying to win championships, I just don't see it being a viable strategy long-term.

They don't *pay* the reporter to share fake news. The reporter *knows* that by playing this game, they're earning real scoops later. The reporter, being not an idiot, then goes off and phrases their scoop in such a way that it starts the conversation without overguaranteeing anything or connecting too many dots. This 100% happens, I've been told as much by one of sports' most well-known reporters, personally.

Justice Hill would be an intriguing buy-VERY-low candidate...

For a guy with his injury history it would have to depend on the cost, BUT, one thing I haven't seen get a lot of attention re. Ingram is what he allows our defense to do... While helpful for casual fans to get a general understanding of personnel groupings, positional groupings, general and foundational playcalling and strategy, etc., modern NFL defenses very rarely fall neatly into "scheme" boxes like 4-3, 3-4, etc. Teams are looking to be as "multiple" as they can be, which is a very football way of saying that they want to have players be able to do a variety of things in different ways/in different areas on the football field to stress the offense, exploit mismatches, keep the offense guessing and provide an amount of durability across a wide spectrum of situations -- Epanesa getting reps at all 4 DL spots is a perfect example of that. To me, that's exactly what bringing in Ingram -- again, at the right price and if healthy -- provides. Not only does he provide depth at arguably every front 7 position, but the guy is a pass-rushing nightmare, especially when you can move him all over the place. I mentioned stressing the offense above. Imagine an OL having to account for Oliver's first step on the inside, Hughes' first step off the edge, and then two extremely versatile guys moving all over the place in Ingram and Epanesa... it's intriguing to think about for sure. Not saying I'd give up a 1 for him, but if the cost was Murphy + a 4 (bringing back their 5 or 6), I think we'd be silly to not consider it. Would be another toy for Lezlie to play with...

For the record, I'm super hopeful all of these guys pan out. Just seeing a lot of posts about how great we did and thought I'd share my perspective. Would love nothing more than to be dead wrong on the ones I'm less than excited about.

Separation is about a lot more than just explosion, it's ankle and hip agility, it's setting up CBs, it's knowing how to run routes against man v zone, hand placement/fighting, etc. This is why most GMs don't take too much away from the combine, literally no one in the NFL has ever run a straight line in shorts, unguarded in a game. Hodgins had a hard time creating separation against a lot of middling-to-bad DBs in the P12. He's going to have his work cut out for him against NFL CBs.

You're making a lot of incorrect assumptions here... I've seen Moss play in person 3x, I'm basing my opinion on him on a lot more than just his 40 time. I gave the K a "pass" (as in pass/no pass), how else would you recommend I grade a Kicker taken in the 6th rd? Feel like I said a lot of the same things you said about Hodgins. Great hands are great, but if you can't get open in the NFL, you're not going to get thrown to. Hodgins is going to have trouble separating in the NFL, but he's big and has good hands, cool. I've seen Fromm play several times as well. Not sure how you can just assume I don't know anything about him because I didn't write anything about him. I didn't write anything about him because I don't feel like there's much to say. Weak armed QBs don't succeed ANYWHERE in the NFL, let alone a place where the wind blows like Buffalo. That's going to be an issue. But apparently you felt like everyone of our picks were going to make the HOF... This was part of what I was trying to get at. It feels like this draft was "safe" in a lot of respects, as opposed to pushing for new/different elements to the team. Moss could certainly help on the goal line, as could Hodgins, potentially, but this is now 2 drafts in a row we've opted for tougher, older-school football players, rather than more dynamic athletes... Which, in today's NFL, is definitely an interesting decision...

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes. Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player. On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs) Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

A couple quick caveats to this post that hopefully provide enough context to make this a substantive conversation and not come across as simply complaining... 1. I'm very much in the camp of trusting Beane and McD, it's been clear to me (up to this point, anyway) that there's been a solid plan in place that they are executing. 2. My draft evaluations/judgments come from 2 places: watching the film and athletic testing First created topic, here goes... I love that most folks -- both on this board, as well as the broader community -- are excited about our draft. That gives me a good amount of hope with this group. That said, I have my reservations... 1. Love that we got Diggs. I think he's going to add a great dynamic to the offense. Hard to argue that he's not every bit as impactful as any of the rookies would've been, so job well done BB! A+ 2. Unquestionably great value with Epenesa at the end of the 2nd. He's never going to be confused with Jevon Kearse but I think he can be a dynamic DE for a very long time. Speaking from personal biases, I would've loved to move ahead of Pittsburgh for Claypool, I loved him as a prospect and I think he would've added a dynamic that this offense is still lacking. That said, letting Epenesa fall into our laps was still a great, value-laden move -- 2/2 -- solid A. 3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in. I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards. Incomplete 4. LOVE that we went for a WR with some size here, and I love reading about Davis' work ethic, so again, I'm cautiously optimistic that this one will pan out. But he's not overly athletic, he's not explosive, he doesn't run great routes, he's never going to be possibly more than a very slight a mismatch in terms of size/speed/strength... I don't know where he wins. I heard the comment about him winning on double moves, which is interesting, but I'm not convinced that's something that can actively play into an overall strategy. Gandy Golden, either Johnson, DPJ and Coulter all felt like better bets to be impact players. Time will tell, and again, hoping for the best, but I'm afraid Davis is destined to be a career 4th or 5th wr (which, to be fair, is probably what should be expected out of a guy at the end of the 4th...). C 5. Not convinced Jake Fromm even makes the roster. Sure he's a great leader, sure he knows football, cool. Unless we're drafting him to groom him as our next QB coach, this felt like a wasted pick to me, especially with the veterans available in FA. D- 6a. K is a need, we filled it, cool. I know nothing about the kid but like that most had him as their #1 ranked K and he has a big leg. Pass 6b. Really torn here -- I'm married to and Oregon State Beaver so have seen this kid dominate for the past 3 years. My Ducks recruited him but decided not to take him and almost instantly regretted it. If there's going to be a poster boy for ones that can succeed despite not clearing those athletic thresholds, it's going to be Hodgins. Unlike Davis, I love Hodgins' length, body control and catch radius. You can at least see how he can be a box-out type guy like Arcega-Whiteside last year. That said, this kid is REALLY going to struggle gaining separation at the NFL level. He actually tested out better than I expected, but that's a glaring weakness in his game. I think he'll provide some interesting to the end of our roster WRs, but probably not ever be more than a 5th or 6th WR/RZ specialist. Wouldn't have taken much to move up for DPJ, who at least has a chance to turn into something... C+ 7. It's hard and unfair to really say that a 7th rd pick is ever wasted, but I don't feel like this kid has a chance to make the roster. Frankly not sure what else I would've done, but it's uninspiring ot say the least... D+ In the end, they let things come to them, which I see as both good and bad. It's what the Ravens do every year and they've been one of the most successful franchises for a very long time. It means they're continuing to build on a defensive-minded, control the ball, style offense. I like that they're in sync there and operating with one vision -- that's ULTRA RARE in pro sports. It also means that they didn't take any chances, and as such, didn't make any substantial gains (Diggs' acquisition, notwithstanding). Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Ravens -- arguably our biggest competition out in front both had huge drafts and a number of other teams stocked up on weapons as well. So I'm left with this weird feeling of not being unhappy but also not being super excited about this draft. Certainly part of it is that the Diggs trade went down a few weeks ago and we didn't get fanfare for it on Thursday. But another part of it is really questioning if we're being innovative and forward-looking enough, or if we're erring on the side of stubborn old-man football that is going the way of the Dodo. Is it healthy skepticism? Pessimistic optimism? Not sure, but I've definitely seen plenty of posts on here of folks whose expectations need to be seriously tempered...

Yes to every one of these. Also Quartney Davis, Juwan Johnson III, Dane Jackson, Calvin Throckmorton, Tyrie Cleveland, Michael Warren II...

Claypool ?

As I said in another thread, it's about more than just having a need, you have to find the player too. If a Jajuan Johnson type is just as bad in coverage as a 3rd LB, you're actually losing there. Delpit is the only one available that could come in and be that guy right away, to me. If we want to take a crack at Dugger in the 4th (I think his small school status will kill his draft prospects) then I'd be all for it, but I don't think you can say he's automatically your day 1 nickel LB starter. Sometimes it's better to not out-think the room...

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I don't understand why we can't also be planning for the future to some degree (while also taking a player who plays special teams and provides another element to the offense?) I'm also not sure where else you're going to take a player who will have a much more substantive impact in games AND provide similar value... DE is 3+ deep already, we've clearly been poking around in free agency and the talent pool in this draft is dreadful. CB has a few interesting players, but we also have 3 guys on the roster already vying for that starting spot and our staff has shown that they're able to find/develop talent from later picks. TE is already a full room, and while they're not sexy, seem to fit what the staff wants. We had zero interest in any free agents and this is not a good class, so that doesn't exactly seem to fit. RB has talent, but they've already made it clear that Singletary is their #1, so probably makes more sense to find a complementary back later. Safeties are locked in. If you're looking at a big nickel I'd argue there's really only 1 realistic option on the board that fits for both talent and value. I'm not sure where you think we're going to find this franchise starter in the 2nd, but WR is just as good an argument as any of these others.