CincyBillsFan

A bad game and OT loss on the road is a far cry from killing the Bills. Over the last 3 seasons (2020 - 2022) the Bills have gone 37 - 12 in the regular season winning 3 straight AFC East titles. In the playoffs the Bills have gone 4 - 3 and Allen did not kill them in any of those games and in fact played great in several of them.

Another thing about the "Mahomes & Allen" played the same number of games argument is the FACT that the Chiefs were a high level playoff team with or without Mahomes. The 2018 Bills team that a rookie Allen played 11 games for was a team that had dissolved its offense as part of a rebuild. Part of Allen's career statistical TO woes date from that season when he was playing with arguably the worst talent on offense in the NFL that year. In that year Allen had 18 TD's and 17 TO's. And let's not forget that Allen, who hardly took 1st team reps in preseason & training camp that year was thrown to the wolves in game 2. Mahomes had the huge advantage of spending almost his entire rookie season learning the game from Andy Reid and Alex Smith.

I find it funny how many people are claiming that Allen won't throw the ball short and over the middle. That he ignores open receivers so he can gun it 25 yards downfield. Yet look at these stats for Cole Beasley - the ultimate short, middle of the field route running slot WR: 2020 & 2021: In 31 games Beasley had 164 receptions on 219 targets. Seems like Allen has no problem making these types of throws to a WR who catches the ball, runs precise routes and is in the spot he's supposed to be.

I love the Allen has sucked in "back to back" games trope. I guess strictly speaking they're back to back games but they're also nearly 8 months apart. And the two games were very different. Against the Bengals Allen didn't have a TO until a meaningless INT in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter. The issue for Allen in the Cincy game was that he wasn't his usual wildly productive self. But that owes more to the disintegration of the O line and the lack of any play-makers not named Diggs in that game. On Monday night t issue was Allen was careless with the ball and his TO's cost them the game. But Allen DID NOT cost the Bills the Bengals playoff game. You get the sense that if these people are right and Allen has gone the way of Carson Wentz, and I don't believe he has, they will be thrilled to be proven "right". Kind of like how the Browns have Burrow's number.

The answer is that he didn't regress. He saw an increase in TO's. But his performance in 2022 was still elite by any standard: W/L record including playoffs: 14 - 4 Passing including playoffs: 4899 yards, 38 TD's & 17 INT's Rushing including playoffs: 808 yards, 8 TD's & 8 lost fumbles Total production = 5707 yards, 46 TD's & 25 TO's

You thought that a guy who led the Bills to a 14 - 4 record (reg season & playoffs) and had: 4899 total passing yards with 38 total TD passes & 17 INT's 808 rushing yards with 8 TD's & 8 lost fumbles For a combined total of 5707 yards, 46 TD's and 25 TO's needs a mulligan for that performance? Now I agree that Allen has to many TO's but his yardage & TD production are elite. Sure, Allen can improve by cutting down the TO's but he didn't need a do over for last season. Keep the production where it is and cut down the TO by 5 and the Bills are likely in the Super Bowl. That's a far cry from needing a mulligan.

That may be the data but does it signify anything useful in the real world? You ask and then answer the question about whether or not the Bills can win with Allen playing as he's playing - "So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast." Okay fair enough but last year, they were 14 - 4, won the Division and made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. This seems like winning to me.

Great QB but I still take Allen.

You mean the Trevor Lawrence who threw 4 INT's in the FIRST HALF of his playoff game. Yea I know he also threw 4 TD's and the Jags won. But last I looked folks on 2BD won't give Allen credit for his 3 TD's against Miami in the Bills playoff victory focusing only on his 3 TO's. IMO the jury is still out on Lawrence and this year will go a long towards answering your question. But right now I would take Allen without a moments hesitation.

I expected Warner was going to eviscerate Allen. That he provides a very different perspective is interesting and in an odd way reassuring. Improved route running can be more easily achieved then fixing Allen's potentially lost mojo.

As I recall the Bills went up 17 - 0 (should have been 21 - 0 but Knox dropped a TD). * The Dolphins then put together a FG drive to make it 17 - 3. * Then Allen throws a deep INT that Miami turns into a FG to cut the lead to 17 - 6. That was an unforced error on Allen's part. * Then Allen throws a perfect 55 yard strike to Shakir with less then 2 minutes left putting the ball at the 16. But the pass was dropped. The Bills punted and it was run back 50+ yards setting up the Dolphins 3rd FG to cut the lead to 17 - 9. * Allen throws his 2nd INT. I would not call that throw ill advised as it bounced off Beasley's chest. Miami scores to tie the game 17 - 17. * Allen leads the Bills to a last second FG to go up 20 - 17 at half. * Allen gives up a fumble TD on a play he should have saw the blitz but that was also a great play by the defender. * Allen then gets hot and closes out the win with 2 TD's. It seems like this was more of a weird game then an example of Allen struggling as his numbers were quite good in total.

I disagree about the skills players and the O line but you make a good case. My understanding is that O line rankings do take into account QB play. And way to often there was immediate pressure up the middle or around the right end, whch makes it hard to execute a short passing game. I also would submit that the stats of our skill players not named Diggs can be misleading. Many of Knox & McKenzie's production can be directly attributed to Allen's ability to move around and make big plays off script. To be clear I'm not saying these are the only or even primary reasons we're seeing Allen struggle, at times, since the middle of last season. I suspect like a lot of things there are multiple causes and IMO these two are among those causes. The relative contribution of each remains to be determined.

Allen laid the same egg against the Bengals that the entire team laid. Allen would have had to be at his best to beat Cincy last season and even then I'm not sure the Bills win. But to me this is a prime example of the type of posts that I'm complaining about. The notion that Allen lost the Bengals game. It's wrong IMO.

I would add that we can't ignore the play of the O line over this period of time. It has been bad, real bad. By any measure it has been a bottom ranked O line. I can't help but remember what happened to Mahomes in that Super Bowl when his banged up line was lit up. In fact every great QB struggles when their line is awful. It gets in the QB's head big time. Throw in an anemic conventional running game that isn't there for Allen/Dorsey to lean on and you have the perfect recipe for the kind of football we've been seeing from Allen. I wonder if people started playing us differently half way through last season when they could substantiate in the film room just how bad our O line was and how limited our collection of skill players was. And Allen, having a gunslinger personality compounds the problem in a way that more cautious QBs would not.

I agree with a lot of this but I don't think the Dolphins game completely fits the pattern. Allen was on fire early hitting both the gimmies and some great deep shots in staking out a 17 - 0 lead. The drop by Knox though kept it from being 21 - 0 and the drop by Shakir late in the 2nd quarter kept it from being 24 - 6 at half. Throw in the big punt return to et up a Dolphin TD and suddenly the game is a dog fight. The pattern I'm seeing or maybe cluster is a better description given we're only talking a few games is that when things go wrong Allen gets antsy, starts pressing trying to put a dagger in the heart of an opponent the Bills should be rolling. I think last years Miami playoff game might fit the bill. After 2 INT's and a fumble Allen snapped back into form.

The evidence increasingly supports this take. I hope the Bills will be the exception as I like McD and appreciate what he has done for the Bills. His culture is the difference from the 20 years spent in football purgatory.

TBF, they're working the kinks out of it. Being on the road in week one against one of the best D's in the NFL was always going to be a tall order. I expect to see this package get a lot more productive over the season.

And how would that be different then almost every Sunday? I get worked up and yell at the TV most games.

Who is saying "Josh is God"? You throw that out there with no evidence to back it up. Allen takes more criticism then any other Bill and he's the best player on the team. Oh wait, is calling Allen the best player on the team the same as calling him a God? Edmunds had what, ONE thread that attacked him, often unfairly. How many does Allen have right now on 2BD attacking him? I agree that Edmunds wasn't the reason we haven't won a SB. But Allen handed the Bills franchise a golden opportunity to win a SB in 2021 with his lights out play. And over the next 5 years he will do it again, probably a couple of more times and maybe this season.

First, this place is tame because the majority of posters are great and the MODS do keep most of the wack jobs away. The good posters can be critical of Allen but they also share interesting insight and some have a sharp sense of humor. Most importantly they know how to structure their criticisms with the proper context. My pet peeve is the relentless negativism and spite directed at Allen whenever he has a bad game. Hell it's often directed at the guy when he has just an average game. It IS over the top. Second, I don't care what other goofy fan bases do on other message boards. 2BD takes up more then enough of my time. Third, I'm not saying people can't be negative Nellie's and over react and direct spiteful attacks at Allen. Go for it if that's what floats your boat. It's a free country. But why do you guys get upset and want to shut those of us up when we react by defending Allen and trying to place some context around his games & performances? Why are you pretending that this ISN'T a two way street?

Your post got me thinking about Kelly who is the best QB to ever play for the Bills. My recollection was that Kelly was a gunslinger who was often reckless with his passing and at times wildly inconsistent. So I cracked open Sal Maiorana's wonderful book "Relentless" to see how Kelly was game to game during the Bills glory years from 1988 - 1993. What I found was that Kelly could be very "Petermanesque" at times. First a couple of notes: * I didn't look at Kelly's fumbles/rushing production because running the football is a huge part of Allen's game and not Kelly's. Sure Allen has lost a lot more fumbles then Kelly but he's also produced gob smacking rushing production that Kelly can't come close to matching. So I focus on the passing stats here. * I get it's a different era of football but by the late 80's offenses were beginning to dominate the game. But I would suggest that while Allen has benefited by the rule changes that is more then cancelled out by the fact that Kelly was surrounded by future HOF and yearly pro bowlers/all pros on the offense. Kelly had a lot more help on offense then Allen does. So let's call it a wash. From 1988 - 1993 Kelly threw 2 or more INT's in 26 regular season games out of a total of 96 regular season games. That is one multi INT game every four games. This was consistent throughout those 6 regular seasons. Here's a sampling of some of Kelly's really bad regular season games which the Bills often lost but also won a surprisingly large amount of: Bad Completion % (less then 50%) and/or low yardage games: * 8/18 for 115 yrds * 10/23 for 144 yrds * 5/15 for 79 yrds * 11/33 * 7/19 for 93 yrds * 17/35 Lots of INT's not so many TD games: * 3 INT/1TD * 3 INT/1 TD * 3 INT/2 TD * 3 INT/0 TD * 4 INT/1 TD (against the 3 - 8 Pats) * 4 INT/1 TD * 3 INT/0 TD Special note was a 1991 game at home against the Bengals in which Kelly threw 3 INT's in the 1st quarter! He then went on to have a monster game to win, I won't spend much time on the playoffs/Super Bowls as we all know Kelly laid a couple of eggs in those games: 1988 - In 2 playoff games Kelly was 33/63 for 407 yards with 4 INT's & 1 TD. This includes a 14/30, 163 yrd with 3 INT/1 TD AFC championship game. If Allen had back to back playoff games like this today we would be screaming for he Bills to draft a new QB in the off season. 1991 - Kelly was 13/25 for 117 yrds & 2 INT's in the AFC championship game at Rich Stadium. The O did not score a TD. The Bills won 10 - 7 on the back of their D. How many times has Allen sucked and the Bills won on the back of their D? That year also saw Kelly's worst Super Bowl performance where he attempted 58 passes and gained only 275 yards and threw 4 INT's against 2 garbage time TD's. Bottom line Kelly should thank his lucky stars that Social Media and an over abundance of National Football Media exports weren't around during those years.

I'm sure Allen is oblivious to the reaction as he should be. My point is that the reaction is EXTREME and OVER THE TOP. Obviously after a game like that fans will be pissed and they should be. But just look at all the "Allen sucks" threads on 2BD and the vitriol being poured out in post after post after post for ONE bad performance in the season opener. Frankly, it's psychotic. No one is asking fans to appreciate Allen's sloppy play on Monday night. But what we're seeing here goes way beyond a lack of appreciation.

Why the hell didn't the Eagles go for 2 there?

Yes the Bills can still have a great season. A first game loss has no relation to how the rest of the season will go. Yes Allen is an elite QB. I would have to see him have 4 or 5 games like Monday night through the first half of the season before having serious doubts. For the record I still believe Joe Burrow is an elite QB after his 1st game which was as bad or worse then Allen's. And I would have been a fool to think that Brady was no longer an elite QB after he threw 4 INT's against he Bills and lost the opening game 31 - 0. He then went on to win a Super Bowl.

Okay so what should the Bills do about it? Agreed. But like you said the criticism is off the the charts and over the top. The last three seasons have earned Allen the benefit of doubt when he has a bad game like Monday night. That's all some of us are saying.