CincyBillsFan

It's bad enough that when I watch NFL games I see great catch after great catch that I NEVER see for the Bills. But now as the college Bowl season is heating up I've seen more spectacular catches by the college kids then I see by Bills skill players. It seems that like the NFL all it takes for these college QB's is to get the ball near their receivers and these play makers do the rest. Anyone who underestimates the impact of NOT having skill players who can make these kinds of catches is fooling themselves.

Well said!

This is the problem with all these "stats": * what constitutes a dropped ball? According to the stats there was only one in the NE game. This begs the question of whether the criteria for dropped balls is to narrow. How about a stat that looks at catchable balls? * But I'll grant you that EVERY QB is the victim of dropped passes - it comes with the game. But if a QB is the victim of 2 dropped passes in a game but benefits from a couple of GREAT catches it tends to balance out. Allen sure experiences the dropped passes but how many truly GREAT catches have his receivers made to cancel those out? A great example of this involves the Jets/GB game. Near the goal line Darnold throws a ball that should have been intercepted but instead is completed for a 15 yard gain because his receiver made a spectacular one handed catch. Watch the clip if you don't believe me. As previously posted on this thread folks who were negative about Allen from day 1 are using these flawed analytics to confirm their bias. I'm using the eye test which shows me that Allen has improved substantially over the course of the season. This is my criteria for whether a young QB will or will not be a bust.

I second this opinion. In fact I'll go a step further and say the analytics these folks are pushing are full of dog poop. The variability that exists for EVERY SINGLE NFL pass renders their attempts to use statistical analysis to define a QB's play a fools errand. Think about ALL the factors that can influence a single pass play: officiating (do they see that hold or not), the snap (high, low or perfect), the QB pre-snap read, the O-line pre-snap read, the signals coming in from the bench, do all the players see the signals coming in from the bench, the routes run by the receivers, the QB fake, the RB fake, QB mobility, pass protection, receiver play on the ball, DB play on the ball, blitz pickup by the back, quality of catch, ..............you get the picture. The only place analytics MIGHT provide useful information in the NFL is when considering veteran QB's who have been on the same team for a prolong period of time. Then and only then would I expect the number crunching to yield insightful info. For rookie QB's in vastly different circumstances - ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME!?

I'm doing my duty as a Bill's fan and drinking beers while I scout for possible WR & TE talent in tonight's Iowa State versus Washington State Bowl and I may have found one. It's a big dude on WS (Dezman Palmon) that made a leaping finger tip TD catch. It was impressive and looked to be an even harder catch then the one that Logan Thomas dropped at the goal line against NE.

Bingo. Retired R&D guy here and this is what I'm seeing also. I would also add that the enormous variability inherent in the "measurements" being made by these analytics guys with respect to football almost render conventional statistical analysis mote.

Wow those stats are amazing and Allen is mirroring Young's 1985/1986 stats pretty closely this year. Also note how in 1987 after being traded to SF Young still struggled mightily with "accuracy" and only completed 54% of his passes but his TD/INTO ratio went from 8/13 in 1986 to 10/0 in 1987.

The problem with trying to figure any of this out is that there are to many variables: * When watching the Bills try to execute a screen pass the first thing you notice is that Allen's short passing accuracy is the least of our worries. It seems like the O-line has major problems in first selling the screen then getting out there to make a block. * With Shady banged up since Allen came back from his injury we probably have the worst set of receiving RB's in the NFL. Ditto for our TE's. While it's one thing to want an effective short passing offense it's not so easy to do without decent route running & pass catching RB's & TE's. * The Bills seem to be in a lot of 1st & long and 2nd & long situations due to the false stars and holding penalties. In the NFL defensive coordinators know that 1st & 20 or 2nd & 15 just cry out for a dump off pass and they game plan accordingly. It also means Allen is thinking about getting back big chunks of that yardage and that explains his urgency to push the ball downfield. Patience is one of the last things a rookie gunslinger type QB learns. Which was a point Arians made over & over again. * The ability of the opposition to take our WR's out of the game with minimum effort allows them to better focus against the short passing game. * Outside of Shady the Bills don't have the type of RB talent/experience that can differentiate when they need to pick up the blitz and when they're free to sneak out into the flat. While Allen has to get better at spotting these guys and making the throw I've seen our RBs standing their waiting for a blitzer who didn't come yet NOT getting out of the backfield for the dump off.

For sure we need to upgrade TE but I do like what I'm hearing about Croom's work ethic. And he has made some nice catches. In the fullness of time that fumble against NE at the 5 yard line will fade away. After all he was trying to get extra yardage and it's not like he has a lot of experience running with the ball in the open field. If Croom can be a contributing factor next season it means we only need one more TE from FA and that frees up money to look at other needs - of which there are plenty. So I'm rooting for this guy to make the leap to the next level in the off season.

This is my take as well. Let's face it those of us Bills fans who've been around the block and paying attention to the parade of QB's over the last 20 years have earned a PhD in Advanced Crappy QB play. Allen looks different to us and it's not just wishful thinking on our part.

As other posters have pointed out Allen's improvement over the course of this season has been impressive and indicates that his improvement from year 1 to year 2, given a whole off season to work with AND better offensive weapons, will be substantial.

I'm just as curious as you are about how they rated this pass. And do they use the "official" dropped pass metric which seems a bit lose to me, you know the one where Logan Thomas didn't drop the ball at the goal line? It just seems to me that the amount of subjective as opposed to objective info that flows into this kind of analytic makes it very difficult to quantitate.

Thanks for posting this. My take: * A very fair review of Allen. Schofield was actually pretty positive and seemed both complimentary and surprised at what Allen has shown in his passing game. He seems to be of the opinion that Allen will become a decent QB. I also thought that he articulated a lot of the things we've been seeing that's good about Allen's passing game. Given that both of these guys were hypercritical of Allen around draft time they have come a long way in changing their opinion about his chances. * I think these two also illustrated the huge perception issues that Allen must overcome. I'm not sure I've ever seen a top 10 drafted QB come out of college receiving so much harsh criticism. The fact is that a whole lot of the experts who specialize in diagnosing NFL talent staked out strong positions around their belief that Allen was not an NFL caliber QB. It will take a lot to move these folks off their opinions of Allen. What makes a guy like Schofield impressive to me is that he's willing to say "hey, maybe I was wrong" and is looking into changing how he evaluates QB's based on what he's seen from Allen's PASSING game in the NFL.

In part it's due to the drops - how can you deny it. We could probably assemble a film clip with what 6 or 7 clear drops of TD passes, probably more. I think KB has 3 all by himself. It's also partly to do to Allen not making the right reads and getting the ball to the right guy. It's in part due to poor offensive line play that doesn't let Allen sit back in the pocket and casually survey the field. It's in part due to the Bills lack of explosive NFL caliber skill players who can catch TD passes in the red zone. In fact one of the reasons Allen has so many red zone TD runs is that those were the only choices he had to get the ball into the end zone. Watch the clip from the Detroit game that a fan took which shows the whole end zone on Allen's TD run. Not a single receiver achieves any separation. Not a single one. This is why simply comparing the # of TD passes thrown by these guys can be very misleading.

First off at this point Rosen may emerge to be the best passing QB of the three at least with respect to completion percentage and throwing the fewest INT's. Second, the ONLY reason Allen doesn't have a 300 yard game IMO is his TE/WR situation. It's the worst in the league and that includes Arizona. And 3rd while I have concerns about Allen if I was a Jet's fan I would have concerns about Darnold, particularly his predilection for throwing INT's. Watching that clip where his TE made a spectacular one handed catch it was clear that the pass should have been intercepted at the goal line. I also saw a Bill's DB drop what could have been an easy pick 6 a couple of weeks ago. I suspect that over the course of time throwing INT's will be an issue with Darnold much like "accuracy" may be an issue with Allen. The head to head match up a few weeks ago gave me a good look at both QB's and what I saw were nearly identical performances. Both guys made some great plays and both guys made some bonehead throws. They both need work but there is every reason to be optimistic that both will be superior QB's in this league. The other thing that was clear to me in that game was that Darnold has better skill players surrounding him then Allen does. As I've posted before, the ONLY Bills offensive skill player who IMO could break into the Jet's starting line up is Foster.

Because I've watched both of them play.

This was my take as well. I was very encouraged by Arians comments about Allen and particularly his repeated comparisons to Andrew Luck. I suspect that Arians does not compare rookie QB's to Luck lightly.

Using a combination of the stats and what I've seen watching the rookie QB's here's my take: 1) Baker Mayfield. Clearly leads the pack and passes the eye test. Has enough weapons to show that moxy in throwing the football gets rewarded in the NFL. Solid long term starter for Cleveland. 2) Tied at # 2 are Allen & Darnold. While both these guys have shown flashes of brilliance in their passing games they have also made some very bad throws. Darnold clearly has the edge in play makers so we're able to see his passing upside more clearly then Allen's. An example of this was in the Jet's game against GB. In a posted video you can see a jet TE make a spectacular one handed grab of a poorly thrown Darnold pass at the goal line. if you look closely you'll see a GB DB sitting there waiting for the INT which would have been made had this been a Bills TE. I also think there is a higher risk that both Allen & Darnold will fail then there is with Baker. On the other hand I believe that Darnold & Allen's upside are higher then Mayfield's 3) Jackson. This is a real interesting situation where we MIGHT be seeing a change in what defines effective QB play in the NFL. The key here is whether Jackson can pull this off over the long run. Jackson is also clearly playing on the best team of the rookie QB's and the Ravens have done a brilliant job of fitting the offense to his strengths. Jackson is not being asked to win games in the way that Mayfield, Darnold & Allen are. 4) Rosen. I think it's fair to say that Rosen has gotten off to the worst start of all the rookie QB's. Of course that doesn't mean he'll lose the race but he's undeniably behind. Part of this is clearly on the dumpster fire that is Arizona's offense. But any honest appraisal of the Bills offense would have to conclude that Allen is playing with just as odious a dumpster fire as Rosen. Of all the QB's Rosen has provided the fewest reasons to be optimistic. But it is early in Rosen's career and if the Cards put some weapons around him nobody can rule out that 2 years from now he could be at the top of this list.

But are you confident that with experience and proper coaching he will learn the difference between when to take the check down and when not to? I'm fully confident he will because by all accounts he's a smart guy. Arians also noted that Allen's stubbornness here reminded him of Andrew Luck and it took a full season for Luck to get it. BTW, I don't think Arians would compare a QB to Luck lightly. It's also possible that Allen recognizes at some level that his RB's & TE's are not going to make plays with check down throws. I thought it was interesting that when the Pats finally went into full prevent mode for Buffalo's last drive Allen hit 3 straight check down passes for good gains. Against the soft coverage that was exactly the thing to do and at that point I doubt the Pats were spying on Allen to much. In fact it makes me wonder if some (not all) of Allen's reluctance to check down during the game is that the opposition isn't giving him that choice. I mean when you can blanket a teams receivers with man to man coverage and generate a decent pass rush with 3 guys it leaves you a safety & LB to spy Allen. These guys also reduce the chance to hit the check down receiver as they're lurking about the LOS.

The article didn't convince me in the least. Football is a radically different game then Baseball. The emotional component of football alone IMO significantly diminishes any role that analytics can play. And as jabonas noted above, the gross difference in seasonal sample size make Analytics far less valuable a tool in football then baseball. Sure, analytics can narrowly be applied to some situations like when to go for 2 points or not but as for directing a teams talent acquisition and game planning - i'm not seeing it. And I'm not an old fart resistant to change - I fully recognize the effective use of analytics in a number of fields. I just don't think football is one of them. But I do see the attraction. It allows the average sports writer or commentator to pretend they're smarter then the coaches & GM's. I mean who can argue with numbers! It gives fans and sports writers the illusion of control in whether a player will or will not be successful. So I get that with the analytics folks players like Allen are a nightmare. He's like that power failure that wipes out their data set before they save it!

This post 100%. And note the last paragraph - plenty of tough but FAIR criticism of the bad throws Allen did make. Most of us who thought Allen played better then his stat line have also been very critical of the poor throws/decisions on Sunday. The difference though is we place his performance within the CONTEXT of the game and the fact that Allen is a rookie. To say this was a bad game by Allen is to ignore what actually happened on the field. IMO this was a mixed bag performance by Allen which is typical of rookie QB's with decent upside potential. Sure he made some poor decisions & throws but he also made some outstanding throws that put the ball where an NFL RECEIVER could and should make a play. That at least 3 TD's were left on the field through no fault of Allen's is enough proof to conclude that he did not have a bad day. The reason to be optimistic after this game is because IMO had there been a better cast of skill players on the field with Allen throwing the EXACT SAME PASSES we might have beaten the Pats. This is NOT coulda/woulda/shoulda thinking either. Next year with a season of LEARNING under Allen's belt and an upgraded WR/TE group we are going to sweep the Patriots.

I get that but by using them he's telling me that he buys into them. Look the stat we're interested in seeing IMO are how many catchable balls are not being caught. Sure dropping the ball is the easiest part of that to define but yesterday we saw two examples of VERY catchable balls not being caught for TD's. Throw in Fosters misplay at the goal line on the 4th & 4 throw and we're talking about 3 potential TD's being left on the field. But my biggest problem with a lot of these stats are that they don't do a good job of capturing what is happening on the field. It's like praising a RB for having a 5 YPC average in a game where he carried the ball 16 times for 80 years with one of the plays being an 80 yard run. I just don't think Football lends itself to analytics in the same way that baseball does.

If this is how they keep that stat then it's a completely worthless stat. If the ONLY definition of a drop is a chest high ball that goes off the hands then this is not the NFL but HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL. Guys like Rodak fall in love with their metrics while completely ignoring what goes on in the game. So out of curiosity what would you call the Foster sun blinding? Sure it's not a classic drop but come on. Or how is the pass that went right through the hands of Thomas at the goal line NOT a drop? This is why I don't trust analytics in football. They suck in accurately describing what's going on.

Fair points and I don't disagree and BTW thanks for the links because it makes it a hell of a lot easier to read the stories from one location then digging them up and dealing with the various pay walls! I suspect that both the rush to defend AND attack Allen comes from the same emotional stand point for us Bills fans. The last 20 years have sure taken a toll on all of us. Hell, even during the glorious Super Bowl years we never actually won one. But the last 20 years have been especially brutal with the playoff drought. Hell the ONLY reason we made the playoffs last year was a miracle play by Andy Dalton. And let's be honest - if you had to distill all this down to the 2 key factors for why we've struggled for so long it would be COACHING & QB PLAY. That's it in a nutshell and so every year Bills fans tend to cluster into 2 groups with respect to their reaction to the QB & Coach: * The Hate Allen Army (& the Hate MacDermitt Army) are the pessimists who through harsh experience have learned to never trust the new QB or Coach. That in the end they'll be let down. Like a guy who has married multiple times with every marriage ending in bitter divorce they vow to never LOVE again! They focus a microscope on any failings by the QB & Head Coach and desperately look around for their successor who they lavish over the top praise on until they to disappoint them. It becomes an endless cycle of misery leading to such things as drunken table smashing on YouTube! * In contrast the Allen Bunker Brigade are made up mostly of optimists. We want Allen & MacDermitt to succeed because they have to. If they don't we're back to square one and face another couple of years of futility. And when a QB like Allen does flash elite POTENTIAL we seize on that and hope for the best. Because if this time we are right and he is the guy at QB we're back in the playoff hunt which is when the NFL is truly fun to follow. Sure being balanced and open minded and not being to negative or to positive would probably be the best approach to these things. But football is an EMOTIONAL game often fueled by alcohol so you just don't get a lot of moderation in the views about these two critical positions on a football team. Though I think the Allen Bunker Brigade is far more balanced but I digress. I do know that for me it's a lot more fun to root for these guys and be optimistic that yes we have our head coach and QB for years to come then to be looking at every flaw under a microscope. Just like during the Super Bowl years I would have been good with losing 10 of those games as long as we had a chance to play in them. Getting there was always 99% of the FUN!

And lets not forget that drop by Thomas of a perfectly thrown ball at the goal line. Taken together this is way to many drops and missed opportunities by our receivers. As an aside if forced to grade Allen I would say he was between a C+ & B- yesterday. Those 2 INT's were bad and he needs to get that out of his system. So like a lot of us who support Allen on 2BD we are fully aware that he has a lot of work to do. But put just average NFL skill players around Allen and IMO he would have more TD's then INT's this season and he would already have a 300 yard game and the Bills would have 2 - 3 more wins.