CincyBillsFan

Are you seriously trying to compare the assessment & treatment of a QB to that of a middle LB? Apples & oranges. * First off I think Edmunds is going to be a great LB. I liked that the Bills took a chance in picking Allen & Edmunds in the 1st round last year. To kick start this franchise out of it's long term mediocrity they needed to take chances and they did. * Obviously Edmunds was a lower risk pick then Allen but not for the reason you think. By definition 1st round selections of QB's are riskier then 1st round selections of LB's. It goes with the position. NFL QB is a fiendishly tough thing to be good at. * Yes Edmunds was the youngest player in the NFL which in and of itself was somewhat risky. And yes he did play very well AT TIMES. At other times he looked clueless out there and played horribly. People who know football didn't jump all over him for that because he was ONLY A rookie. Like Allen, Edmunds flashed signs of greatness and left us with a good deal of optimism about his play next year. * I don't know where Edmunds ranked overall as a LB last year. Unlike QB's who can be analyzed to death and "ranked" according to a myriad of stats, LB's simply aren't evaluated in the same way. All I can say is that to me watching both of them play, there were similarities in that they each looked all world at times and at other times they both looked awful. That's what being a rookie is all about. One final note. It's hard for amateurs like you or me (yes we are amateurs here) to get down in the weeds and really judge these guys. Unfortunately for QB's there are all these numbers that anybody can look at and pretend they know what they're talking about. What numbers or video review can we use to evaluate a LB in the same way we think we can evaluate a QB?

Who is saying everything is fixed? The off season moves have improved the offense on paper. That's all we know right now. The O-line now appears to be better ditto the WR's. Again we'll know if it's true in September. But why would any football fan not be optimistic that the Bills improved their offense in the off season? The alternative is to believe they did not improve this unit or that it got worse. As for Allen, it's a reasonable expectation that he will be improved from last year because: * he will be taking almost all of the 1st team snaps in camp and during the preseason. This alone will give him a better understanding of the offensive scheme and guys who will be playing. it is also likely that we have a stability in the receiving group that we didn't have last season. * Dabold has now settled in and has had an entire off season to fine tune the offense to best fit Allen's strengths and hide his weaknesses. * by all reports Allen has continued to work hard on his throwing mechanics, footwork & film study. It's reasonable to assume the game will have further slowed down for him. This optimism is warranted from the clear improvements he made in all these things pre & post injury. * and we will NOT be looking for a new coach & GM if Allen doesn't step up but the rest of the team gets better. We'll be looking for a new QB like a lot of NFL teams. One final point. It's easy to be pessimistic about ANY rookie QB developing into a good NFL QB. The odds are stacked against it happening. So if your goal is to be "right" and claim you told us that Allen sucks but we didn't listen, then the odds are with you. All other things being equal the chances that you're right and we're wrong are a lot greater then vice versa. On this topic you have to adopt a baseball mindset and realize that most NFL QB's fail or never amount to much. It's like how excellence is measured in baseball with a 300 hitting average being HOF worthy but in school only getting 30% of the answers rights get's you a big fat F. Being optimistic in these situations is a choice. But IMO it sure beats being pessimistic. And it's more fun identifying things to give us reason to be excited & optimistic about then seeing everything through a prism that says Allen will never be a good NFL QB.

This is a straw man argument. Those of us who are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic that Allen might just be our franchise QB readily admit that he must improve a whole lot or we're going to be looking for another QB in 2021 or 2022. We fully acknowledge he must get better in a number of areas of his game. That is a long way from making excuses for the guy. And as for those "excuses" you have to have blinders on not to see that the O-line, running game and receivers left a lot to be desired last season.

Ronin did you actually watch the video you linked to? By my count Allen hit every one of this short passes - EVERY SINGLE ONE! I also so Allen throw away 4 or 5 passes while under pressure. I saw #10 & Jones drop at least one catchable ball each. Sure #10 would have made a nice catch to grab that deep pass but it's a catch I've routinely seen MADE IN HIGH SCHOOL football. I also was reminded of that stupid 4th down play in the 3rd quarter when a FG was the play to make. Sorry but I don't agree at all with your take on this video of that game.

Wow a thread about Beasley loving Buffalo sure turned negative real quick. Some thoughts: * It's obvious Beasley loves the Bills organization and thinks it's a lot better then Dallas was - that's pretty much all he's talked about. * I have to believe Beasley asked around concerning Allen especially given that his stated #1 reason for leaving the Cowboys was that he wanted to get targeted more and catch more passes. If he thought Allen was a total bust that couldn't complete a short pass I'm not sure the money alone would have been enough to lure him here. At MINIMUM Beasley must have some confidence that Allen can get him the ball. * I'm going to ignore the "Allen is inaccurate" statements that are made as if they are FACT. That argument has been made so much on 2BD that the dead horses bones have been ground into dust. * I will point out that structurally the Bills are designed for a slot receiver with Beasley's skills to shine. You have SPEED which MUST be respected with Brown & Foster at the wide outs and a QB in Allen who can get them the ball deep. Then you have a QB whose running ability is game changing. This means that LB's and safeties will be a bit preoccupied every time Allen drops back to pass. Beasley is savvy enough to exploit the inevitable defensive indecision here. * I believe that not only will Beasley surpass his single season catch numbers at Dallas he will have a surprisingly high average gain per pass catch. Why? because his YAC will be enormous as he runs free between the deep coverage worried about Foster/Brown and the underneath coverage worried about Allen taking off. * Folks keep claiming they watched & reviewed the tape and saw all these bad short throws by Allen. Well I don't believe you. Why? Because in the game against the Jets you guys were the same ones who tried to convince us that the short Allen throw to Clay, which would have resulted in a huge gain if completed, was at his feet. When we went back & forth arguing from memory someone posted the actual replay and it was OBVIOUS the ball hit Clay between his stomach & chest yet you guys kept insisting it was a bad throw! Sure you stopped saying it hit Clay's feet and moved up the anatomy first to his ankles then to his knees but it was clear where Allen hit the guy with his throw. Finally I think you guys just claimed he threw it to hard! * In fact as I think back to some of the biggest pass plays Allen made they were off accurate SHORT passes in which the receiver got free as a result of an Allen scramble. The 3 that come to mind off the top of my head are the pass to Ivory against Minnesota; the pass to McCoy against Houston and the pass to Ivory against Miami in the last game.

I agree there is cause for optimism. Allen MAY be the guy in a way we haven't seen since Kelly. Edmunds showed flashes of being a dominant LB at an age when most guys are still in college. We had a solid draft to bolster a roster that is full of young, up & coming players. I also believe we significantly improved the team with the free agents we signed. Ditto with the coaching which was further improved. Bills management has done a nice job of manipulating the salary cap getting the franchise out of a very deep hole. And as a bonus we'll have cap room next year to push even further up the NFL power ladder. I'm predicting that we make the playoffs with a fair chance to win the division. My sense is that winning 10 or 11 games this season is not out of the question.

That WR from Detroit comes to mind as he was making catches with the DB draped all over him. In fact, the Bill's were one of the few teams I watched last year where I can only remember the receivers making exceptional catches in tight coverage once or twice for the ENTIRE SEASON. Other receivers on other teams seemed to make these catches multiple times per game.

Sorry for the misunderstanding Mango. I wasn't trying to be critical of the post as it was an interesting graph. My remarks were aimed more at the people who are trying to use the data as another way to bash Allen. I was also pointing out that over the last few months there have been all sorts of analytics thrown around involving QB play. I just thought this one was especially subjective and open to interpretation and when added to all the others it seems like the "experts" are way over analyzing the rookie QB's. As Oldmanfan has pointed out the use of these statistical techniques is probably inappropriate given the variability for each NFL pass play and the small sample size for the young QB's. And I'm not talking just about the "aggressiveness" chart but pretty much all of the analytics work that has been presented in a slew of posts over the last couple of months. One way to look at it is say I was running a 6 month clinical trial to look at the effect of a test drug. I'm going to measure clinical outcomes as well as track the drug, it's metabolites and impact on say blood chemistry in the subjects. Now let's say that after only ONE DAY of treatment I made a bunch of measurements and ran the data through the most sophisticated analytics available and didn't see an effect. And then I took this data and went around telling everyone that the Drug doesn't work. I would be guilty of gross abuse of statistical analysis and my conclusion would not be justified. The Drug might work or it might not. And this is exactly what these analytics people are doing using various statistical techniques to asses these young QB's.

Is it me or is EVERYONE going overboard on the stats thing? How many different ways can you slice a loaf of bread? In all these cases we're trying to use convoluted statistics to evaluate a ROOKIE QB, who was considered a project by every expert and who only played in the equivalent of 11 games. And he played on a team with a weak O-line, no running game and a piss poor receiving group. Frankly this is insane. To me it looks like we're trying to analyze his performance & future prospects as if we were analyzing a million subject, 5 year nutrition study. We just don't have enough data to usefully apply the stats that were trying to use on Allen. Or Rosen. Or Jackson. Or Mayfield. Or Darnold. At this point it's all about the eye candy. Which means the best we can do is GUESS at what the future holds for these rookie QB's. The most sensitive we can be is to look at Allen's limited body of work and decide whether to be OPTIMISTIC or PESSIMISTIC. It doesn't get more specific then that at this point. And before someone throws out Allen's HIGH SCHOOL (HS? are you freaking kidding me) & COLLEGE stats as if they mean anything remember that you could fill Rich Stadium with QB's boasting great college stats who failed in the NFL.

As others have noted you have completely missed the meaning of this stat. Allen was pressured on almost HALF his throws - which I believe led the league. That he also led the league in having more time to throw is a clear indication of his elusiveness under pressure. This was apparent to anyone who watched his games. A typical Allen pass began with his almost immediately being put under pressure by the pass rush and having to make a move in order to avoid the sack. IMO next year we'll see that in these situations Allen will be quite dangerous because: * His threat to run and gain 25 yards will mean that his receivers will become uncovered downfield as LB's & Safeties move up to contain Allen's runs. * The greatly revamped WR & TE group will take better advantage of the opportunities that arise after Allen breaks containment. You saw evidence of this after he came back from his injury where some of his biggest completions were off scrambles. * With a year of experience under his belt, Allen himself will be much more effective at exploiting defenses in these situations. And with a revamped O-line he won't be put under pressure almost half the time. This will give the kid room to breath and more fully exploit the situations where the pass protection does break down. . * The Bills offensive brain trust has had a year to practice & design for this sort of thing. Last year the team used 4 different QB's (including a raw rookie) and replaced the ENTIRE starting receiver group at mid-season. Bottom line is that there was precious little time to work on their strengths as they were treading water on offense. Now the offense has had a whole off season to work on plays that take advantage of Allen's athleticism.

I didn't go back and re-watch every Allen play but wouldn't it be fair to say that this was a PRE-INJURY Allen antic? I don't recall to many instances where he panicked and turned his back to the rush AFTER he came back from the injury. In fact wasn't it the Jacksonville game, his first one back, where he stepped into the rush and as three guys were wrapping him up delivered a deep strike for a 75 yard TD pass? And it seemed like Allen learned that rather then running around like a chicken after the pass protection broke down he should just look for a running lane and take off. I would also argue that most of the "laughable film" came from the Green Bay game. This was truly Allen's worst game as a rookie. But let's not forget that it came right after one of his best games. This means Allen was INCONSISTENT, especially before his injury. You should see my shocked face at the idea that a rookie QB might not be consistent in his play.

It is odd to see the negativism rising up in response to an excellent post by KZoomike. Most Allen supporters are fully aware of the kids shortcomings and what he needs to work on. We are also aware that the chances he ends up a bust are better then the odds he ends up our franchise QB. But when looking at an NFL QB you have to apply Baseball logic. That is a lifetime batting average of 300 likely gets you in the HOF even though you're only getting a hit 30% of the time. A pessimist would say that sucks! The same applies to the NFL where the odds of drafting a great QB are low. So when a kid shows signs of possibly being THAT GUY, I choose optimism. The idea that being optimistic about Allen's future with the Bills is the same as viewing Allen through rose colored glasses is just plain wrong. Down here in Cincinnati When friends ask me about the Bills Super Bowl losses I always tell them that I would rather go four times in a row and lose every one of them then never to have gone. For four magical years we had something special and the joy I got from reaching four straight Super Bowls easily overwhelmed the bitterness of the four straight losses. That's how I'll view Allen. He's shown me enough to justify my optimism and even if he never lives up to expectations I'll have enjoyed the time of optimism. The alternative is to walk around with a permanent rain cloud over your head.

Seriously, you're saying Allen was twice as bad as Darnold in this game? Twice as BAD! As others have noted that game was lost by the special teams and a defense that couldn't hold a 4th quarter lead against a rookie QB at home. And for the record, this game made me think that Darnold is going to be a damn good QB.

For me Allen's response to this bad play provided me with more reason to be optimistic then any one of his spectacular plays. We knew the kid had freakish arm talent and we quickly learned (vikings game) that he had freakish athletic talent. These are two things you can't teach and our guy had them which is a good thing. But mental toughness is also hard to learn and Allen throwing a pick six at the end of the half to allow Miami to tie up a game they were trailing 14 - 0 had all the earmarks of a disaster in the making. How many of you thought that coming out of the locker room we would go 3 & out or even worse Allen would throw another pick and the Dolphins would win the game? I know I was worried that the game was on that trajectory. Instead Allen comes out of the locker room takes the team on a 75 yard TD drive in which he makes 2 great throws (one for a TD) and had a huge run. These are the "little" that you want to see in your QB. And this is one of the reasons I'm optimistic for next season.

How about this: "Allen has potential but he's still young and has a lot to learn". or "It's not fair to compare Allen to Mahomes at this point in their careers. They're in very different situations." or "We'll have to wait & see how the season plays out. You don't really know until guys put on the pads and there's some real contact but I like what I see so far." or "Allen is coming along nicely but it wouldn't be fair to compare him to Mahomes at this point. They're different guys with unique strengths." There are a lot of ways Morse could have been guarded or even tepid in his opinion on Allen without being insulting. That he wasn't and seemed eager to compare him to what he saw in Mahomes is encouraging - nothing more or less.

I think this would be tempting fate. My guess is that sometime during the two weeks between the conference championship games and a Vikings/Bills Super Bowl an asteroid would slam into the Earth ending civilization. All that would be left would be a few drunk Bills/Vikings fans arguing over who would have won.

Great post. As another poster noted we can realistically expect that if Allen is the guy he'll have 2 good games for every 1 bad game this year. But that means he's going to have a couple of stinkers. That's where the defense comes in. My goodness there isn't enough Lithium in the world to handle Bills fans if they get depressed by their 2nd year QB making a couple of bad throws in JUNE!

As others have noted it's to be expected that the Bills defense, which will be a top 5 defense this year and is returning most of it's starters would be WAY ahead of a retooled offense with a 2nd year QB IN FREAKING JUNE. And as others have said Allen and the rest of the offense will get better by practicing against an elite defense. I'm picking the Bills to win 10 or 11 games this year and make the playoffs. They'll do that on the back of their defense and with some big plays out of Allen & the offense. But this will be a defensive minded team which means they'll try to run the ball on offense, limit TO's, gain field position and play outstanding special teams. They're going to win a lot of games 20 - 13. This worry about whether Allen missed a swing pass or whether he's struggling against a near elite secondary with mostly back-up receivers IN JUNE is bizarre to me.

Hell if you want to worry go right ahead, it's your heart attack. You can worry about all sorts of things such as an asteroid smashing into the earth and wiping us all out - it's a free country!

I'm answering this question taking into account the moves the Bills made in the off season and since they already have a very good defense I'll focus on the offense. They shored up their O-line and improved themselves at WR & TE. Sure I could pick a future HOFer at these positions and make the Bills even better but like I said I think they're much improved here. So where do I see a problem still? RB. They need a game breaking RB that fits the modern bill of being deadly both running and catching the football. So I'm going to take Christian McCaffrey. He's young, is just now coming into his own and I suspect he'll be in the final 3 for offensive MVP this year. And if he can convince Cam Newton of the value of check down passes he can convince Josh Allen. The guy has demonstrated that he can run between the tackles and carry the load taking over 90% of the Panthers offensive snaps last year. IMO he would provide the overall high quality RB production we haven't seen since Thurman Thomas. And he would do it for at least 5 more years.

Agreed but they're impact is more pronounced and variable in football. Take officiating for example, while umpires have a big impact on each baseball "play" the number of moving pieces from the pitch to the end of the play that umps impact is less then what an NFL referee crew impacts on each NFL play. Or take weather, sure a strong wind can effect a baseball game but such an effect pales in comparison to how rain or snow impact every part of a football game. Even worse, over the course of the LONG baseball season variables like weather can be expected to largely even out. But the limited number of football games offers no such assurances. I suspect that if you add it all up the total movable pieces for each NFL play they are an order of magnitude greater then what happens on each pitch in baseball. Making matters worse, is the fact that the relatively few games played in a football season often don't enable events to even out.

Football is even more complicated then this! Not only does it have the interaction of the 10 other players but you have to add in the following for EACH play: * The impact of the coaches that are on both the sideline & up in the box. This ranges from the play call that is sent in to the signals being sent to other players on the field (O-line & WR's for example) from the sideline. All this occurs in the 20 seconds or so before EACH play. * The impact of the refs. Football is probably the most overly officious team sport. Each official on EVERY play can impact a QB's final stats. Does a holding call cancel out a TD throw? Does an interference call cancel out an INT? Does a rinky dinky illegal content call on one side of the field cancel out a pick six on the other side? * The opposition defensive players & coaches. Their reactions to every offensive snap have a lot to do with a QB's final stats. * The weather. Hockey is played indoors and baseball isn't played in the rain or snow. But football is played in almost every type of weather. And which part of an offense is impacted by the weather the most? The passing game.

As K9 points out Football has to many moving parts (variables) to lend itself to effective analytics use. Among team sports baseball is much more suitable. Not only is it made up of very well defined individual actions the sheer number of games played within one season allow a statistically meaningful collection of observations to be made. To match a single baseball season an NFL player would have to complete for 10 seasons. By that time player aging will have introduced a powerful and uncontrollable variable to deal with. I don't know enough about hockey to comment intelligently on whether analytics has been a useful tool there.

Why would folks waste their time? Analytics can not proactively predict a young QB's future prospects any better then a beer swilling fan gobbling down chicken wings at the local bar & grill.

As others have noted the degree to which Allen polarizes these so called QB "experts" is weird. I can't recall so much venom spewed at a player like that which some of these analytics guys hurl. My take is they realize that if Allen succeeds it indicates that their precious equations are crap. And that threatens their paycheck. As someone who spent a LONG career working in R&D and made use of all sorts of mathematical modeling & analytics techniques the attempt by these guys to model QB performance using analytics is laughable. There are simply to many variables to make the calculations worth much. When I see a QBASE score of 37.3% I can't help but be amazed at the arrogance of these guys who believe their calculation is accurate to a TENTH of a DECIMAL PLACE! Really! How about "37.3" +/- 50%. There I fixed it for you Shantz. Allen may not get better then he is. He may flounder going forward and turn out to be a bust at QB. He may never be anything other then an average QB in the NFL. Or he may be the next John Elway. At this point in his career who knows. I don't need silly equations to tell me that. Watching the NFL closely will tell you this. But anyone who has watched a fair amount of the NFL would say that there is reason for optimism that Allen may in fact be a very good NFL QB. Using my advanced eyes analytics technique (AEAT) I calculate that there is a 34.5892% chance of Allen being an above average to excellent QB.