CincyBillsFan

This is it in a nutshell! He seems to take it personally if he loses yards. But for every bad INT he throws trying to avoid the sack he seems to make several big plays because of his ability to avoid the sack and either run for a big gain or hit a big pass. He had at least 4 of those plays today that led to 18 points (2 TD drives and 1 FG drive).

I saw Garrafalo throw 2 bad INT's in the 1st quarter today. He also lost a fumble. It happens. Allen's throw was atrocious. If it happens every game then we have a problem. if it happens every 4 or 5 games it's not a big deal because Allen's positive plays more then compensate. And for the record I don't think the offense can be powerful yet. Certainly not with Singletary AND Felliciano out. The O-line is much improved but it's average at best right now. The receivers are much improved but they to are average. Ditto for the running game. Our TE's are going to be studs by the end of the season but right now they are rookies. Allen is still a raw prospect. He is going to make mistakes. But I saw some amazing plays out of Allen today. Last season we had the 2nd worst offense in the NFL. This year we're going to be solidly in the middle of the pack. That's a huge improvement but we still have a ways to go before we become a dominating O. The trajectory is in the right direction though and that's what really matters.

Man I ate half a bottle of Tums today. My observations: * 3 - 0. That's all that really matters. 3 - 0. * I'm sure my son and I were not the only Bills fans deeply concerned that we weren't up by at least 3 TD's at half! When you out-gain the opponent 257 yards to 77 yards you should be up 24 - 0. I'll start with the negative first - THE BAD today: * Josh Allen's really awful, exasperating, terrible throw that got intercepted. We know this is going to happen let's just hope it's only once every four games! * TJ Yeldon fumbling on 1st down in the RED ZONE! At that point we were on our way to putting the Bengals down and going up 18 - 0. After that fumble we were uneven on offense the rest of the day. * Offensive coordinator Brian Debald. The play calling, particularly in the 2nd half was way to cute. A key play that happened before Allen's INT was a 3rd & 1 that should have been a Frank Gore off tackle run. We were driving and any points probably puts the game away. Running a cutsie reverse was an example of hubris this team can't afford. Look I get that in studying the film Dabold thought he could use misdirection to beat the Bengals in the same way as the 49's did. But early on it was clear that Cincy had worked on this yet Dabold kept going to it. * The Defense. I'll give them a break for giving up a TD after the Allen INT. But how on earth does an elite defense allow the Bengals to go on an 82 yard drive at home leading 14 - 7? Then they allowed the Bengals to drive into FG range and take the lead. And don't tell me about "momentum". At HOME with a LOUD crowd you don't give up 10 straight points in the 4th quarter. Hang the 1st TD on Allen's bad pass. But after that the defense played very poorly until the game ending INT. Now for the GOOD: * We WON the game. Everything else is secondary. * Josh Allen. Other then that bad pass Allen had a very good game. With Fellicano out there was immediate pressure up the middle on half the passing plays. Most QB's would have been sacked 3 - 4 more times then Allen was today. Don't forget that Allen had about 15 fantastic passes today. And you can't teach what Allen did at the end of the game. A QB either has it or he doesn't. To take the Bills 78 yards for a game winning TD making several great plays in the drive is CLUTCH. And CLUTCH is huge for a QB. Allen's run to escape a sack and put the Bills in the red zone on that drive was every bit as spectacular as Dawson Knox's catch & run. * Dawson Knox. We might have that stud TE that has eluded this franchise for the last 20 years. He caught his 1st TD pass and had two runs after the catch that were as nasty as I've ever seen. My goodness on the winning TD drive I was worried that Knox would start going horizontal looking for Bengal players to run over. Given that Knox missed most of training camp & the preseason he is only going to get better. * The Bills Defense. They held Cincy without a 1st down for their 1st 4 possessions. They did everything in their power to get us a blowout win and save us the emotional roller coaster we had to endure. And while they softened in the 2nd half they had the game winning INT. * Frank Gore. He was a warrior out there and I can't think of anyone I would trust more then him at the goal line. * The Offense. Sure they went into hibernation a bit to soon but the stats don't lie: 416 total yards and 25 first downs. * Beasley & Brown. These two guys are not dominating WR's but they are consummate professionals. They make a lot of nice catches. * Bills fans. The stadium was loud! It sounded great on TV. Clearly crowd noise impacted the Bengals all day.

You should have kept reading for the entertainment value. This guy actually brought up watching Allen play his alma mater San Diego State as if that somehow provided insight into his NFL play. Hell they should hire me and I'll give them my opinion after watching Allen play in ACTUAL NFL games! And I'll promise not to drink more then 6 beers during the game while doing my assessment!

Listening to Cincinnati Sports talk radio down here the Allen is inaccurate notion is alive and well. Did you know that Allen is still making those crazy across the body throws that get intercepted? And if the Bengals can get a little pressure on him he'll melt down and make all sorts of mistakes. I just got done listening to some clown from PFF on a Cincy sports talk show bring up the relevant observation that when he was watching his San Diego State Alma Mater play Wyoming Allen had terrible accuracy & ball security. I kid you not! That's what passes for a sophisticated analytics based assessment of Allen QBing in the NFL.

Okay I've been down here listening to Cincinnati talk radio. And here's what the local analysts and a couple of national guys they've had on their shows are saying about the Bills: * The first thing you hear is that sure the Bills are 2 - 0 but they played the Giants & Jets. At that point you get a belly laugh! * Then you get an admission that the Bills play good defense. * On the question of Josh Allen it's the same old tired refrain from last year: 1) He's still inaccurate! 2) He still is playing hero ball and will make bonehead throws! 3) His highs are high but his lows are LOWWWWW. Put pressure on him and he'll make all kinds of mistakes! * The best analysis IMO came from Bengal's color analyst Dave Lapham who pointed out that since a rocky first half start against the Jets the Allen led Bills offense had scored 6 TD's in 16 possessions which included a couple of end of half & end of game kneel downs. He's also the only guy I've heard say that Allen is much improved over last year. * On Laphams show Eric Wood called in (he's a local guy who played at Elder high school) and that's been the highlight of this weeks local Cincy coverage of the game. Both Wood & Lapham know their stuff and I was very impressed with Wood as a radio commentator. * Overall there's a weird sense of over confidence and impending doom from the locals about this game. This is understandable given how well the Bengals played against the Seahawks and how crappy they played against the 49's. At least from a local fans and sports experts POV this IS the make or break game for the Bengal's season.

Well I didn't conduct an exhaustive survey but yea it seemed like that in the months leading up to the start of last season the "experts" were overwhelmingly predicting that Allen would be a bust. Was it 90% - who knows. Maybe it was only 82.3%. But a lot of the national & expert NFL guys were saying Allen was going to be a bust. Back then Allen's strongest support came from a small group of ex QB's and Mel Kiper! In fact looking at the early season assessments of last years QB class the two rookie QB's who would least scare a team were Josh Allen & Lamar Jackson.

There is such a thing as a trap game but it's different then what folks think. Last season Minnesota lost a trap game to the Bills. Why was that a trap game and not a "on any given Sunday" game? * The vikings were at home facing a Bills team with a raw rookie at QB. A rookie who could not beat out Nathan Peterman and who 90% of the NFL QB experts were predicting was a raw prospect that would likely be a bust. There was NO evidence whatsoever that Allen would be jumping OVER LB's. * The Vikes had watched the previous 2 Bills games on tape and it's hard not to think they came away feeling very confident. The loss to Baltimore was historic and things didn't get a whole lot better against LA the next week. * On tape, there was ZERO evidence that Buffalo had a good defense. In fact all the evidence pointed to a race to the bottom between the Bill's defense & offense. There was no indication from the tape that the Bills could rise up and play championship caliber defense generating TO's and shutting the Vikings offense down. * By the time the Vikings were aware they were in a trap, they were down 17 - 0 and facing a Bills defense that would go on and become one of the top 5 defenses in the league. This week is different IMO because: * The Bills know Dalton is a good QB that can play lights out. They also know that whatever the O-lines problems are Mixon is an elite NFL RB. And it's obvious the Bengals have an emerging stud at WR in Ross. * While the Bengals laid an egg last week the Bills have seen the tape of their 21 - 20 loss to Seattle. A tape that shows the Bengals DOMINATED the Seahawks in everything but the score. The Bengals defense, that was so bad last week, held Wilson & company in check and the Bengals offense shredded the Seahawks defense IN SEATTLE! So I'm very confident that the Bills will not be underestimating Cincinnati in the same way that the Vikings underestimated the Bills last year. My fear is that the Bengal's will p[lay like they did against Seattle (I watched the game) and if they do they are more then capable of beating the Bills. Still I'm predicting a Bills 34 - 17 victory because I think this team is good and getting better.

Taking it a step further we should be optimistic about that play. In the NFL this is probably a TD 50% of the time so yes it was not an easy catch. But on the positive side of things Allen got the ball there and Jones was open having run a good route. This is an example of how both Jones & Allen have elevated their passing game. That this was in the red zone is even more encouraging. I suspect in the near future we'll see the same pattern run where Jones will get a bit more open and Allen will put the ball closer to chest high with the result being a pretty TD pass.

That's how I recall things Nihilarian. I was a lurker back then not a poster and when the Bills grabbed Allen I was thrilled. I had watched him on those late night ESPN Mountain West games and thought the kid was amazing. It never occurred to me to even think about accuracy when he was throwing 30 yard missiles on the run for TD's at Wyoming.! I kept thinking he would make a great Bills QB. Then on the big night I come here after the pick all excited and the place was melting down! I mean the angst & venom being spewed was off the chart. And a whole lot of people kept going on about how the Bills had taken the wrong Josh. And in the following days the angry fans posting here were joined almost unanimously by the Bills print, radio & video media! It just seemed like they were piling on Allen and it often came down to Josh versus Josh. So I've got to admit my dislike of Rosen wasn't rational but was based on the fact that everyone was saying we should have drafted him instead of Allen. To be honest I do feel bad for the guy. But as others have noted Allen stepped into just as dysfunctional an offensive situation in Buffalo (really Peterman beat Allen out fair & square?) as Rosen did in Arizona. And it was a measure of Allen's fortitude that he made lemonade from lemons. As an aside, I sort of get how the draft Rosen folks felt. When the Bill's hired McDermitt I was furious. I thought it was a terrible pick. Not another D coordinator! But now I know I was 100% wrong and McClapy was a great hire. And I see a similar reaction by most of the "wrong Josh" crowd now that Allen is making progress and on his way to being a very good QB.

I hope he doesn't jinx us.

For me it's to early to rank them but some observations: * Highest upside = Josh Allen * Most unlucky = Josh Rosen. Being on TWO dumpster fire teams in his first year. Are you kidding me! Next most unlucky = Sam Darnold. Mono! * Biggest enigma = Lamar Jackson. This guy has been a far better passer then most people thought he would be. But how much is Jackson and how much is the scheme? Trent Dilfer made the point that in almost all of Jackson's TD passes the receivers were "high school open". That suggests scheme but who knows. * Most likely to have a Sophomore Slump = Baker Mayfield. To be fair to Mayfield you have to have had a good rookie season to actually have a slump.

I'm worried about this game but then again I worry about EVERY game. Living down here in Cincy and the Bengals being my 2nd favorite team I think this is a great match-up for the Bills: * The Bengals have a damaged O-line. And even when healthy it isn't very good. In a loud stadium the Bengals are going to struggle to hit the big pass down field to Boyd & Ross as I suspect Dalton will be running for his life. Sure they'll hit a couple of big plays but I don't see them driving it the length of the field much. * The Bengals defense has regressed over the last couple of years their D-line & Secondary are solid but not great. Their LB's are terrible. Slow and bad tacklers. Preston Brown is struggling big time. I see Beasley and our TE's having big games on Sunday. Beasley could be looking at a 10 reception type game. Allen could do some damage running the ball . We may see him go on a couple of 15 - 20 yard runs. * Another factor to consider is that Manning was actually a tough QB for our D to face. He has a wicked quick release and he was getting the ball out fast which frustrated our pass rush. Dalton relies more on hitting the deep pass so we should be able to get some sacks & a lot of pressures in a noisy Rich Stadium. My prediction is Bills win 34 - 17.

But it's more then it should be. When we drafted Allen, the detractors, and there was a sizable minority of them among the Bills posting fan base, claimed that he would be a bust and NEVER be a starting caliber QB. Then after he showed flashes of excellence during the first half of last season the number of folks claiming he would be a bust declined but not by a lot. Then after he showed solid growth in his game after the injury the detractors still harped on Allen's accuracy & decision making "issues". Allen gave us good reason to be optimistic about his being a franchise QB with the way he closed out last season. Sure, he was still a work in progress but the persistent negativism & pickiness of the Allen detractors got old during the off season. Hell we had 20 page arguments about the definition of "accuracy" as the Allen haters, and yes they come across as haters, analyzed every throw he made. Frankly it got silly. Now after a strong off season by the Bills upgrading the offense and a strong training camp & pre-season by Allen we had a reason to be optimistic about Allen going into the season. And after the first two games our optimism has been reinforced. I just think the time has come to get behind Allen. Constructive criticism is fine and makes for a better message board but the assessment of Allen by the haters is just annoying. It doesn't add anything to the discussion IMO. Oh and for the record GunnerBill I love your takes on Allen. Your tough but fair and since I can be overly optimistic you point out stuff that I don't see or appreciate. This allows me to temper my optimism with some realism.

It appears that Allen is now working under the new "perfection" criteria where QB's are judged harshly if EVERY throw isn't perfect. I need to know where the hell this insanity come from? It sure didn't come from watching the NFL.

My goodness this is the very definition of DEPRESSED! I would love to see the Bills go to 4 straight Super Bowl games again before I die. Hell going to another SB would be awesome. And even if they lose every one I'm laying in my coffin with a smile on my face.

Context is everything.

I could have sworn Allen "cleaned it up" in the 4th quarter last week. You know the quarter where he was on fire leading the Bills to two 80+ yard TD drives to win the game! Details & context matter.

You mean a defense like the Raiders that Mahomes chewed up yesterday? Now that was an elite secondary. The Bills play who they play. And don't lose hope, I'm sure a couple of defenses will shut Allen down and make him look like the inexperienced 2nd year project QB that he is. But then again just like you want to see Allen against better defenses I would love to see Allen with the Rams or Chiefs skill players! We can all play the glass is half empty/half full game.

I agree 100%. It's the eye test baby and Allen passes that one. My guess is all this numbers stuff is a natural reaction by human beings who want to control every situation. It's in our genetics. Football is a violent, chaotic game that is also tightly controlled and planned out. It really is a form of "war" carried out in a much less fatal environment. Analyzing the numbers gives us a false confidence that we actually can predict events. Clearly there is a place in football for statistical analysis. And yes such analysis can provide insight into players and teams. But they're are over analyzing things; particularly for Allen. I mean EVERY SINGLE PASS he throws is critiqued. This isn't the Olympic Diving Championships! Hell some of the biggest plays a QB makes is when they throw it up for grabs and a WR comes down with a 50 yard TD!

I agree about there being a different feeling. Just contrast the first 2 games from this season to last season. Sure the Jets/Giants aren't as good as the Ravens/Chargers but people were seriously arguing at this point last season that the Bills couldn't beat Alabama! First, the defense is elite. While we've had a good defense the last two seasons over the last 20 years we've had some awful defenses. IMO having a great defense provides a foundation that makes you think you can win every game and beat the big boys. Second, Allen looks to be a step above the QB's we've had here since Kelly. It's not the numbers that convince but the demeanor, leadership and stunning plays that this guy makes. He appears to be a clutch player which is worth it's weight in gold for a QB. Allen also has a short memory, essential for great QB's & DB's. Think about last years Miami game where he threw a bad pick 6 to allow the Dolphins to tie the game right before halftime then comes out to lead a long TD drive at the start of the 3rd quarter. Even better was his 4th quarter performance against the Jets. This was after the 1st 3 quarters where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Third, from the ownership to the GM to the head coach and coaching staff there appears to be a plan. They don't seem like they're winging it as they to often did before.

I didn't have a problem with what the Bills did I was just pointing out that they seemed to down shift the offense in the 3rd quarter and this was by design. I also believe that it will come back to bite them in the ass at some point. But over the course of an entire season this type of strategy, given how good the defense is, will probably lead to more wins then losses. And even though they were still throwing the ball they seemed to do it more out of 2 TE sets with a FB and it didn't seem like they were using their whole playbook. And as others have pointed out the Bills O got sloppy in the 3rd quarter with a dropped pass and a couple of false start penalties. But I'm fine with this while at the same time I was frustrated by it as well. Like I posted earlier - my heart says keep the pedal to the metal while my head says the Bills managed the game in the right way.

It may not be impressive from an NFL standpoint but the fact that Allen is the first one to have seven straight 200 yard games passing since Kelly in 1992 is pretty amazing. That's 27 years. It also says two things: * Allen is starting to establish himself as a true heir to Jim Kelly. Whether you're talking about his 4th quarter come back wins or this streak of 200 yard passing games, he's showing us that he may be the guy. * This streak also highlights just how futile the Bill's QB'ing has been over the last 25 years. A flash here and there but very little consistency. Dare we hope?

My first expectation is that Allen leads us to a WIN. That has happened two weeks in a row. If he does that he's already flirting with an A. My second expectation is that he's clutch. Sure a QB can complete a couple of nice passes at the end of the half that take their team from the 15 yard line to midfield then the half is over. Or on 3rd & 20 a QB can throw a beautiful 17 yard pass. But that's not clutch, that's just numbers. Clutch is taking his team on a 98 yard drive to break the game open. Allen gets a lot of credit for making some terrific throws on a drive that I kept saying "let's at least get the ball out to the 30 so we can get a good punt off". That TD drive was way more important then everything the O didn't do in a lethargic 3rd quarter. Clutch was Allen leading the Bills on a long 4th quarter TD drive after the Giants had cut the lead to 7. The key play was an amazing scramble & throw by Allen. In fact Allen's play in both 4th quarters, on the road, has been outstanding and the very definition of clutch.

But a lot of receivers catch that ball GunnerBill. I'll wait for the replay's but I thought it was a good throw under the circumstances.