CincyBillsFan

Let me rephrase - it's okay if in that same world Allen throws 32 TD passes.

I've never understood all the folks who argue that a player is "on pace" for this or that. NFL performances are almost never linear. Allen may not throw another INT for 5 games or he may throw 10 more in that time. And if he does throw 22 interceptions whether that's good or bad will depend on how many TD's he scores.

It's way more then Allen turning the ball over. * There have been bad drops. Both our rookie TE's dropped passes that stopped these kinds of drives against TN. * There have been sacks, which sometimes are on Allen but other times on the O-line. * There have been bad penalties. Remember that dead ball PF against Feliciano that took us out of FG range against the Jets? Or those other holding penalties that stalled out drives? * Play calling sometimes gets goofy when we get into this area. Remember the Allen QB sneak on 4th & 2 at TN? Or how about the McKenzie jet sweep on 3rd & 1 against Cincy? The good news is that this is all fixable.

The reason I'm optimistic that this offense will get on track is that when you look at the stats they're kind of goofy. As you point out once in the red zone the Bills are very good. The problem seems to be that they implode when they get to the opponents 30 - 40 yard line. Think about every game and how many DIFFERENT ways (sack, TO, penalty, play call) we mess up at the 35 yard line? I think in the 1st half of week one we got to the Jets 35 three different times without scoring a point. Given the almost total overhaul of the offense and the addition of new coaches at O-line, Receivers & QB it's only natural that the unit has struggled for consistency. They have moved the ball and are almost surgical in scoring TD's once in the red zone. Develop that consistency and this will be a team scoring 24 - 28 points regularly going forward.

Analytics!

It wasn't great it was very good. And it was very good based on the circumstances. And those circumstances were: * The Bills, boasting a top 3 defense, were on the road facing a top 10 defense. It was raining on & off and they were playing on a grass field. The TN offense does not turn over the ball. Add all this up and we needed to be careful with the ball as it would likely be a low scoring game. * Allen was very careful with the ball as we had only 1 TO and that INT was not a terrible throw by Allen. * The Bills got into the red zone twice and scored TD's both times. * The Bills were able to run out the last 4 minutes of the game, denying TN a chance to tie the game. * The Bills won the TOP stat which is important in close defensive dominated games. * The Bills won the field position battle as the Offense was able to string a couple of 1st downs together to enable multiple punts inside the 20 yard line. * Allen was sharp on almost every throw he made. He made mostly good decisions and his run at the end of the game sealed the victory for the Bills. Similar to his overcoming the bad pick 6 right before halftime against Miami last year, Allen overcame a concussion and a very bad performance against NE the week before. This demonstrates a critical intangible for bouncing back after bad things happen. An important part of any QB's game.

To be fair you should then give Allen two completions for the bad drops by Knox & Sweeny which would have given the Bills first downs in TN territory and added at least 6 more plays and the potential for a lot of extra yards. In fact, if we're going to play "coulda, woulda, shoulda" I'm quite confident Allen throws 2 more TD's passes on those drives and adds at least 75 more yards passing (with the drops). I'll take that bet. Let's put Allen on the KC Chiefs. Very bad defense but with Andy Reid and a whole lot of weapons on the O how do you think it works out? I'm very confident that the Chiefs are still 4 - 1.

Another problem IMO is that NO ONE heads deep when Allen starts to scramble. I'm surprised at least one of the receivers isn't told to "go" at that moment. Not only would you drag your cover guy out of the middle but you might take a safety with you. And if no one covers you it might be a huge play. I think both Yeldon & Beasley hesitated not wanting to BOTH run into the same space. You can file that under S##T happens. If either one had run into that space you probably have a completed pass. Knox wasn't as open as he looked as #26 was lurking in the area and would have either intercepted the ball or lit Knox up. As another poster pointed Knox should have sat down in the hole. With experience that's exactly what he'll do. We have to remember that not only is he a rookie but as a college TE he had almost no involvement in the passing game. He is still very RAW. My takeaway is that Allen made an aggressive but acceptable pass into traffic on 3rd down. The Bills need to work on their scramble drill is it appears that 4 receivers are all in a 5 yard wide zone between the 40 - 45 yard line. They have to stretch the field and DB's out once Allen breaks the pocket.

Great point. As Knox gains more experience he will sit down in that hole and Allen will hit him for the 1st down. It's easy to forget that not only is Knox a rookie he's a TE that had almost no involvement in the passing game in college. His upside is off the charts IMO.

After watching this I would file it under S!!T happens. IMO this supports that: * Allen is not playing hero ball here. He is being aggressive which IMO is a good thing. * I like how Allen scans the field working through his progressions. * Folks saying that Knox was open are seeing fools gold IMO. #26 is ready to jump all over any throw to Knox over the middle. At minimum Knox would have gotten blown up. * My best guess as to what happened is that Allen expected EITHER Beasley or Yeldon to run into the space where he put the ball. If either do I think it's a completed pass for a 1st down. The problem is that both receivers did the right thing to hold up and let the other guy move into that space. So like I said before S!!T happens. * Either Beasley or Yeldon should have taken off deep on a go pattern. That way the one who took off would have cleared their cover guy out of the middle and maybe even have provided a great deep strike opportunity. Bottom line is the scramble drill needs work.

A complete overhaul of the kind the Bill's have made on offense will almost always result in growing pains. When you add a young QB to the mix it makes it even tougher. IMO the Bill's offense has done better then expected given the complete swap out in personal and the fact that we don't have a single game breaker among the skill positions. Sure they're not lighting up the scoreboard but they are moving the football and have been surprising effective in the red zone. I look for this group to improve significantly as the season goes on.

You bring up a good point. Allen did lead the Bills on a very impressive 75 yard TD drive against the Pats where he was 6 - 6 for 69 yards. That TD made it a 3 pt game.

John Lynch is sure looking dapper. Hard to believe that when he played he was a head hunter in the Jack Tatum mode!

In a game like this BOOGER is the ONLY entertainment! And I bet America agrees with me!

It takes a special kind of idiot coach to have OBJ returning punts midway through the 4th quarter down 28 - 3! My goodness.

Bosa is a BUCKEYE and what Baker did at the shoe was unforgivable. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Exactly right. I would be curious as to how the analytics guys handle situational stats if they even think about them at all.

Through the first 3 quarters with the game on the line, Mayfield is 8 - 22 for 100 yards; 2 INT's and 1 lost fumble. Now if Mayfield plays most of the 4th quarter he's going to pad his stats big time against 49 back-ups and prevent defense. This is why analytics are almost useless in the NFL. More then any sport, a guys stats are dependent on when in the game they came. It's like a RB who has a couple of big runs at the end of a 35 - 7 beat down. Or a QB that throws a 50 yard hail Mary TD at the end of a game they're losing by 3 TD's.

Mahomes is unique. He's the modern day version of Dan Marino. But QB's like Marino & Mahomes who are great right from the get go are very rare.

Wow, the 49's FG team is struggling as much as TN's was yesterday.

We're starting to get some chatter. People are noticing the 4 - 1 start. My guess is that the national media is hoping the Bills fold. They know that not having a playoff contender on national TV is a bad look.

They have a lot of talent at the skill positions on offense but that O-line is weak.

The INT part of the throw was just bad luck - like Allen's INT against the Jets. But the throw was to low and he was reaching back - not an easy catch.

That was more on Mayfield then #11 to be fair. The ball was low and behind him.

IMO the 49's have blown an opportunity to put this game away. That's 2 TO's they've squandered. Could bite them in the butt. Meanwhile, that folks is a fine example of a WR getting separation by Landry.