CincyBillsFan

Take a look at the difference in skill players, particularly at TE & RB, is all you need to do here. The Niners running game is POTENT ours is less so.

That's NOT what I'm saying. What I'm intrigued about is why didn't we get garbage yards/TD. My belief is it indicates that we have a long way to go in providing this offense with explosive play makers. The garbage time comment was also aimed at all those who think that hitting 300 yards passing is a huge deal. It's probably the most overrated stat in football because it's so often attained as a result of garbage time production. Andy Dalton has multiple 300+ yard games and even has a 400 yard game this year! And the Bengals are 0 - 8. And I don't think Allen played badly yesterday. I think he was average which is why I graded him as a C+. Over the last few years the Bills did to the offense what Miami has done to their team. It's been a 100% tank job. And while doing this we've inserted a raw, project QB! The next step is to build an O-line and insert explosive skill players into the offense. That job has just begun and is far from complete. In the meantime they've determined that Allen can learn & grow in a trial by fire situation and that he has the mental & physical toughness to survive such a process. If all goes according to plan the next few seasons will see this all come together. What you see as excuses is simply trying to factor in some context when looking at Allen's performances.

Exactly right. For the 2nd week in a row our defense allowed a team to go on multiple long TD drives that chewed up a lot of time. It's probably fair to say that the Bills Offense was robbed of at least 5 possessions over these last two games by the inability of the D to get 3 & outs. This was especially crucial in a ind game where it's critical that you 3 & out a team when they start a drive inside their 25 yard line going into the wind. In fact that's the prescription for winning Rich Stadium wind games. Several times our D allowed the Eagles to get a couple of 1st downs eliminating the field position advantage we should have had with them going into the wind. And this is why IMO giving Allen a "D" grade as QB is ridiculous. Given how poorly the defense played had Allen really earned a D we would have lost yesterday's game 38 - 6 and NEVER would have been in it early in the 4th quarter.

I give Allen a C+. No one is throwing for 300 yards in the kind of wind that we had at New Era field yesterday. What was odd about yesterday's game was that Allen didn't pile up a bunch of meaningless yards in garbage time having two possessions with the eagles up by 18. It was 0/3 then 0/4. If Allen gets garbage yards then he breaks 200 and probably has a 3rd TD throw. Half the QB's that hit 300 or more yesterday did it in garbage time against prevent defenses. So why didn't the Bills get those cheap stats? Or better yet why did Allen play better through the 1st 3 quarters when the game was still a contest? It doesn't make sense unless you realize that we don't have the skill player talent to do pile up "prevent" yards. The guys that thrive in garbage time catching the football are TE's & RB's. I rest my case. When you take a hard look at this Bill's offense try telling me that they have the talent to put up big numbers and come back from being down by 2 scores or more. They don't. Watch other games and you'll see guys running wide open & getting decent separation. YAC after every catch is a given. You see explosive RB's and TE's that make play after play in the passing & running game. I get that Singleterry & Knox might be big time players in the future but right now they're raw rookies making an occasional play. Do you think opposing defenses worry about what a draw play might do to them? People claim Allen isn't getting rid of the ball soon enough. That's part of it but how many times is he almost immediately flushed out of the pocket as the opponents D-line simulates a jail break? And like EVERY QB Allen misses the open receiver. But I'm watching other games and they're talking about a QB having to choose between multiple open receivers. How often do we have that luxury. Allen is making decent progress. He has much to work on but should be hitting his stride next season when the Bills add some additional skill player firepower and one OT to stabilize the pass protection. This was not going to be the year we had a potent offense. Yet here we are on the cusp of being 6 - 2 halfway through the season. I'm okay with that.

This is exactly right. We all need to take a chill pill and realize that with a win next week the Bills will be at 6 - 2 at the half way point of the season. That was the best case record I had them at in August.

You mean the defense that allowed a 70 yard TD run right out of the halftime locker room? Or do you mean the defense that after the Bills had a great drive to cut the lead to 17 - 13 gave up a long TD drive to go up 24 - 13?

We ran the ball twice and got a first down. We then got pass happy and on the 4th down throw Allen was late making the read and throw to Brown. That was a big opportunity that the offense did not take advantage of. But where you apparently see the QB as the main problem in that drive I see a lack of offensive play makers and an O-line that did not protect the QB very well as the main problem. But for me the game was lost after we had cut the Eagles lead to 17 - 13 with a nice 75 yard TD drive and our Defense allowed them to march the length of the field and go up 24 - 13. I's not a secret that the strength of this team is the Defense. Our offense, including our QB, are a work in progress. I would have loved to have gotten the ball back after 3 and outing the Eagles with the chance to take the lead, not just cut into the lead.

Every QB can go through periods of being "wildly inaccurate" in a game. Hell watching tonight's game Rogers missed a bunch of throws in the 2nd quarter. My observation was that when it was still a game Allen was playing well. When the D gave up an eight & a half minute, 84 yard drive in the 4th quarter to put the Eagles up by 18 the Offense, including Allen, fell apart in response.

I disagree. The primary concern in college was Allen's "accuracy" and I think the data and evidence to date indicates that is NOT a problem. And while the majority of "experts" had significant concerns about Allen a sizable minority thought he was a top 10 pick in the draft based on his extraordinary arm talent. What almost NONE of the "experts" seemed to be aware of was Allen's outstanding athleticism. He has turned out to be much better runner then anyone thought he was. Allen has also clearly made significant progress in a number of the areas where he was supposedly deficient. Just today with his TD pass to Beasley Allen showed a real maturity in not running and instead flipping the ball to the WR. Allen is also taking on more of the pre-snap responsibilities and he's demonstrated excellent leadership skills. He has a lot of work to do but no more then the rest of last years QB draft class has ahead of them. But so far ALL the evidence is that Allen is getting better and his trajectory is pointed solidly upwards.

So are you suggesting we move on from Allen? Maybe bench him and see if Barkley got better since the last time he started in the NFL? Or should we make a play for Andy Dalton? He's thrown for over 300 yards a whole bunch of times this season. Hell he even had a 400 yard, NO INT game to his credit at Seattle! Or do you favor drafting a QB next year in the 1st or 2nd round? IMO Allen has already shown enough to make me think he's the guy. At worst he's shown enough to earn at MINIMUM three full seasons to prove whether he is or isn't the guy. I get not going all in on a guy for 5 - 6 years to see if he'll pan out. But given what Allen has already shown he will get 3 seasons to lift his game to the next level. if he doesn't get that time then the Bills front office will be guilty of gross football negligence.

I've watched every game this year and in one half of a Chiefs game I see the WR's/RB's/TE's getting more separation then I see in 2 or 3 Bills games combined. And it's not like the KC QB is throwing these guys open or hitting them in stride. Some of his passes would be considered "off target" by the anti-Allen brigade. But he's doing what an NFL QB needs to do on a team loaded with explosive skill players - get the ball to those players. They'll take care of the rest.

Wow, speed to burn. This is an interesting game in what it signifies. Green Bay has a very good defense but the KC skill players are carving them up.

Exactly right. Explosive skill players are going to explode. I get identifying the QB & building the O-line first. That's sound, fundamental football. Though it can be frustrating for us fans. But NOW is the time to upgrade the Bill's offensive skill positions.

That's why I don't think the brain trust saw this as "the year". These guys are aren't dumb and they knew they were thin at RB - both in number & talent. I could live with throwing the money at WR & OT but they still have to upgrade RB.

I agree with your take on Allen. Through the first 3 quarters I was feeling like he was on his way to having one of his best games. But the inability to stop the Eagles offense put to much pressure on a Bills offense that's still a work in progress. Get 2 stops on those 3 TD drives in the 2nd half and I absolutely believe Allen and the O get another TD to win the game 20 - 17. But if you had told me ahead of time that the Eagles were going to score 31 points in a WIND GAME I would have said the Bills got their butts kicked.

It's become a critical need IMO. But a need best addressed in the off season either in FA or the draft. Right now this backfield is way below average and is probably bottom 5 in the league. If you notice they're trying to keep Gore from wearing down by limiting his touches. But this leads to it's own set of problems where we abandon the run to quickly or have Allen try to play RB. Lamar Jackson is the only guy that can be a RB at the QB position. Allen is at his best running after the pass protection breaks down.

Fair points and I agree with you about the designed sweep at the end of the half. That play hasn't worked since the Giants game (the one against TN was an Allen ad lib NOT a called QB sweep) and it was clear the Eagles were expecting us to run exactly that play. When we signed Kroft & Beasley it was for 3rd & 2 plays at critical moments in the game. Neither of those guys are going to catch 75 yard TD passes but that situation was what they're both designed to do. And to be fair to McDermitt & Co. We are way below average at RB. Singleterry looks like he has the potential to emerge into a fine change of pace back but right now he's more a threat as a receiver then a runner. Gore is a warrior headed for the HOF but he doesn't have a burst and isn't going to break to many tackles. Watching other games shows me that we don't have anything close to a dominating RB. IMO this is need #1 in the off season.

Some observations after a disappointing game: * In many ways we dominated the first half yet couldn't get beyond a 7 - 3 lead. This was reminiscent of the Bengal's game though nowhere near as dominant. Still if we went into half up 14 - 3 it probably would have properly reflected the run of play. * As others have noted let's do away with most of the designed Allen run plays accept inside the 10 yard line and short yardage QB sneaks. Allen runs best after the pocket breaks down or with the run/pass & read option plays where they can't sell out to stop Allen. * The designed Allen sweep on 3rd & 2 right before the half was a terrible call. That play worked the 1st two games but hasn't since then. The eagles entire defense flew to Allen and the ball. Even without the fumble that play would have lost yardage. Allen is NOT a RB and on a play like that the chance of a fumble is much higher. * The defense was very disappointing particularly in the 2nd half. One of the hidden issues that plagued us the entire game was that when the Eagles were heading into the wind they were able to get a couple of first downs and move themselves towards midfield. This was HUGE in the game of field position that characterizes wind games at Rich Stadium. I counted at least 3 times that we let them convert 3rd & long when they were inside their own 20 going into the wind. IMO by doing that the D cost us at least 7 points. * I was also curious that we gave the Eagles the ball AND the wind in the 3rd quarter. If we had been leading 7 - 3 then I might have done that and tried to hold out to the 4th quarter for the wind. I would have been thinking that at worst we'd be down 10 - 7 going into the 4th with the wind. But down 11 - 7 there's no way I'm giving them both. Just one TD by the Birds changes the complexion of the entire game. * I actually thought Allen played well. His stats sucked because towards the end he only hit on like 1 in 12 passes but by then the game was over. He led us on 2 long TD drives and got us into position of a long FG right before half. He didn't throw an INT and made a number of nice throws. The reality is that our O is severely limited. Singleterry flashes potential but we're way below average at RB IMO. We don't have a true receiving TE threat and beyond Brown our WR's are average to below average. And our O line got schooled today. * But having said all that we're 5 - 2 and with a win next week we'll be at 6 - 2. If someone said to me in July that we'd be 6 - 2 at the halfway mark I would have been thrilled! I also don't think we should trade away draft picks for a WR or TE. As others have noted this was never going to be our year. If we make it as a wild card great. But let's hold onto our draft picks and sign some big time FA's for next season. That's when we'll be making a run.

Exactly right. They improved an offense that was in the bottom two in the NFL last year and lifted it to (at best) the middle of the pack. But this is still NOT an offense that can explode for a lot of points. And for the record, it's not like the D & Special teams have helped an admittedly mediocre O with great field position. Through 7 games the D & ST's have given the ball to the O in the opponents red zone only once. In fact, they have given the ball to the O on the opponents side of the field ONLY twice. Our O has had to go on to many long drives to score points.

Nonsense. This isn't high school football. You don't fold the tent up and go home just because you lose a 7 - 3 lead at half and go down 11 - 7. These guys are PROFESSIONALS. There should have been NO ill effects after the fumble and Eagle TD drive. And for the record if this was truly an elite defense, say like NE's, why do we assume they give up a TD AND 2 pt conversion here. How about we go into the locker room up 7 - 6 at half? Don't make more of the fumble then it was.

The Bills offense is inconstant now but will it still be in 4 weeks? Given the COMPLETE (9/11 starters) overhaul in personnel and the fact that our QB is only in his 2nd year nobody should be surprised by the inconsistency. Frankly the O is doing better then expected IMO. It moves the football; is deadly in the red zone and has had a number of epic long drives. As an aside, while I'm more optimistic then most Bill's fans, I never had this year pegged as a championship season. We're still not there yet.

Sharpe is to lazy to be disrespectful. If he simply looked at our game recaps he would have seen that prior to the 4th quarter fumble recovery against the Dolphins our D & ST had NOT given the Bill's Offense the ball in an opposing teams Red Zone through the first 5 & 3/4 games! Sharpe is simply an ignoramus. In fact one of the mysteries of the 2019 Bill's O is that while it doesn't produce a lot of points it does move the ball, is surgically efficient in the red zone and has executed a number of very long TD drives.

Last nights game provides more evidence that analytics have only limited value in assessing NFL talent. And they probably have even less value when considering young QB's who have a relatively small sample size. Why do I say this? Because when you develop statistical models designed to evaluate real world situations they must show some degree of accuracy in predicting real world outcomes. Take the PFF ratings: Darnold = 73.9 ranked 13 Allen = 57.9 ranked 31. That's a HUGE difference in their scale. Based on this we would have PREDICTED that Darnold would have played much better then Allen against the Pats. And when you remove variables like home or away (Jets were home) and the weather (weather was good for both games) what's the PFF excuse for their utter lack of predictability here? Just because the PFF guys get featured on the Collin Herd show doesn't mean their models are close to being validated. In the end the PFF folks can't account for Ghosts in the Machine.

What makes Allen's 4th quarter stats even more impressive is that all of it was generated in tight one score games. This wasn't a case of a guy throwing for yards/TD's against another teams prevent defense & back-up defenders. In all these 4th quarters the game was on the line. And that includes the Giants game where Allen led us on a TD drive to boost our lead from 1 to 2 TD's. This data should make all of us very confident that Allen is indeed the guy. This is PROOF positive that he can play QB at an exceptional level. What will be needed to get Allen to do this over an entire game will be much less then what would have been needed to get Allen to be clutch when it mattered. See Mathew Stafford.

If I'm a Jets fan I'm hanging my hat on this. I think he will bounce back. You can't look at this game in isolation but have to think about the excellent game he had a week earlier against Dallas. But with that being said, Darnolds game last night was bad and the margin for error for the Jets is now lower and there's a chance he doesn't recover from this. As an aside those who keep acting as if Allen & Darnold had similar bad games against the Pats are wrong. Allen never looked as lost & helpless as Darnold did. Three of the four Darnold INT's were hideous throws to no one. Allen's 3 INT's were bad decisions but were aggressive down field throws. Darnold's throws last night suggested fear to me. Allen's throws suggested bad judgment and a guy who was pissed off he wasn't hitting big downfield plays. And the Allen led TD drive at the start of the 3rd quarter where he went 6 - 6 for 69 yards was way better then anything the Jets could muster. And if the Bill's offense got HALF the calls that the Jet's Offense got we would have won that game. It really did seem like the refs were trying to help the Jets move the ball down the field with multiple ticky tacky penalties on the Pats D.