WideNine

As much as I would like to see Edmunds at OLB given the opportunity to rush the QB off the edge, I came to the same conclusion. Mike is where they are grooming him with no plans to move him in the near future.

He may be factoring in our current depth at WR. I think Foster has proven he has talent and we have not seen his ceiling yet. Brown is a proven commodity and another speedster that can line up opposite Foster and give defenses fits if they try to go man or play cover 1. In the slot they picked up a vet who runs crisp routes with sure hands in Beasley where Zay is going to have to pick up his game to compete. They have a few more as camp guys who can compete for depth, but I have always thought that most of the receivers in this draft have a second round and later grade, and just a few with borderline 1st round talent. Makes sense to look at the guys that might be there from the 2nd round on down.

I don't think so. He did a fairly objective review of pick 9 BPA, and was clear there are guys that Beane would take before Hockenson should they fall. I had not considered the logic, but the butterfly kicked me in the head when he looked at positions where the Bills had a high number of visits and correlated that to a FO taking a depth approach to that position; If A is gone who do we have at B, at C, etc. Logical assumption. If Hock pans out, it is not a wasted pick IMO, I think most of the anti-Hock folks would feel better about him if the Bills could trade back and then pick him up, but I am not sure he last past the 12th pick. It would almost be worth it to see how many folks here would crap themselves if NE packaged a bunch of picks and moved up to grab him to replace the retired Gronk. My guess is NE stays put and goes after Josh Oliver a bit earlier than projected. He fits their mold without Belichick having to parlay draft capital. I still think there is some decent depth at the TE position, and would be fine if one of the defensive blue chip talents fell to us. I just would not expect another TE to contribute as quickly as I think Hockenson would.

Or Friggin Lonnie. I wish I could find a video clip of that time Lonnie caught the ball in Green Bay (I think) and was pointing at himself in the JumboTron, but must have lost track that GB had 11 players that included one Safety who decleated him during his premature victory romp to a TD. Classic Bills moment.

That and NE does a great job in pass pro, been protecting a fairly immobile Brady for a while and has a different rulebook applied in regards to holding. Why I think Rosen would be a good fit there too.

The thing I have seen from Rosen is he has a very technically sound throwing motion, but needs to step into it to be consistent - unlike the wrist-flick and 40 yard tosses you see from Allen from a variety of throwing platforms dictated by situations on the field. So his passes take time if he has to reset to buy some space. He also does not have the same pocket presence as Allen; Once Allen adjusted to the speed of the NFL game he took a lot less sacks. You can see Allen sensing the rush slipping arm tackles and still directing traffic down-field. Combine all that with the fact that Rosen does not have the scrambling ability of Allen and you have a disaster if you do not have a very solid o-line in front of him. It is too early to write off Rosen and I think in the right situation he could be successful, but teams look for QBs that can extend plays and find ways to overcome protection breakdowns. Allen and he were both thrown into pretty poor situations, Allen rose to the challenge because of the other attributes he brings to the position beyond being able to stand in a clean pocket and stepping into throwing perfect strikes.

Nice Gunner. To add to all the other requests you are fielding, what are your thoughts (rating) on Wisconsin's Dieter? Needs some work on his game, but was able to play all three positions on that Badger o-line.

Makes sense with the amount of contact and interest they have had with the kid. As much as I enjoy all the discussion around other prospects, I cannot see Beane drafting a player at 9 that they have not gone out of their way to get to know a lot better.

Yeah, the Bills and the Jets have to play NE twice...easy-peasy. We also get the Phins who are in full tank mode so maybe it balances out.

So no hope that Croom has a break out year in that role? Irv Smith is a gamer, wont try to take that away from him.

Both those guys had decent measurables at the combine, but Warring's blocking is sometimes referred to as atrocious and he had plenty of dropped passes. Sternberger also is someone who is a very poor blocker, but would work out well catching passes out of the TE flex option role. As far as YAC there were some comments that he goes down rather easily...still productive though. I am admittedly biased towards Oliver. The book on Oliver is a player who has a higher ceiling - getting better each year. He has great hands, good body control, good positioning on blocks but lacks some strength. The bio below is in line with most of what I have seen from other sources. https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/josh-oliver Seems to be on the radar for a lot of teams. He is considered a later round target for the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Browns, Denver... mocked to a lot of teams. Some of his highlight stuff on the Patriots prospect site. Video of San Jose St games are not going to be confused with videos done for Alabama https://www.patriots.com/video/2019-draft-prospects-josh-oliver-te-san-jose

If they pass on Hock, Irv Smith is not the answer at 6' 2". My next target with the most upside IMO would be Josh Oliver from San Jose St. Big kid, great measurables from the combine, biggest hands of the class, and you don't hear things like "loses focus, or inconsistent" when it comes to his catching ability like you hear with some of the other prospects. Like most of the later round TE prospects there will be more coaching up needed around refining blocking and routes, but that is to be expected.

This. If he has that ceiling and is that 3-down TE that Daboll can use in a variety of personnel packages blocking and catching then it is decent value for that pick, and it is not "the end" if the Bills go in that direction. Probably a moot point because I don't think the Bills have spoken to Hockenson and I don't see them spending their 1st round pick on anyone they have not interviewed and gotten to know better. Still don't mind arguing the merits, but I think the smart money is on DT Oliver.

And keep your QB off of the IR list and help Shady revive his career by opening running lanes. More to being a great TE than JUST catching passes. If the only measurement is receiving yards the team already has Foster, Brown, the CFL guy, WR draft or UFAs... If the draft falls this way I am fine, if we have a shot at one of the blue chip defensive linemen I expect Beane will pull the right trigger. As long as we get a player that can step in and help this team.

I did see his footwork improve over the course of the year. It seemed he did get a lot of coaching about his mechanics and the need to reset his feet quickly to align his lead foot better with the intended spot he is going to throw to underneath, but early on this was an awkward deliberate process where the timing was off. As the season progressed it became a smoother more natural effort, he had better timing and foot placement after his drops to hit more shorter options with good touch. Makes sense that on deeper throws where he doesn't have to reset his feet laterally as much and can step into his throws the proper mechanics come more naturally to Allen along with better ball placement. He will get there as Daboll is probably going to assign him a quota of minimal short passes to complete each game:)

Not going to work too hard to convince you if your mind is made up and that is fine. You can go back and watch one of the very first games below with Josh throwing to see what kind of routes were called: On the very first play you will see the RB (Murphy I believe) provide an uncovered underneath option for Josh - this is pretty standard for most passing plays as there is usually an underneath option, or a dump off option. Yet he does not even consider it. He does hit a deeper option, but that is all he was looking at from the snap on. This is not unusual for strong-armed rookie QBs, it is not a matter of scheme it is a matter of maturing from the hero-ball of Juco and two years at Wyoming to the kind of offense an NFL team wants their QB to be able to run. It is a change in read progression that Josh needs to embrace and it is not usually pre-installed in a draft QB prospect regardless of where he is taken - the two things are not really related. Now taking shorter options may already be there because that is the kind of game a draft QB plays - Mayfield for instance is a shorter QB that many have compared to Breese when he was coming out because of his physical measurables and the way he would spread the ball around, extend plays, and hit the underneath options at Oklahoma. I personally thought his longer passes could be pretty ugly.... at least the ones I saw him throw in their bowl games. Several OBD sources have indicated that this is a learning thing for Allen, not a "we have to provide some underneath routes" kind of thing. Beane went as far as to say in response to a question that they feel it is easier to take a QB that loves to push the ball down the field and teach him to look for the shorter options that to take a QB who is "check-down Charlie" and try to teach him to fire the ball past the sticks when needed.

Actually Daboll normally floods the zones when running the spread with a deep route, a route that is a bit deeper than the sticks and then some underneath routes that force matchup issues. He and McDermott have been public about Josh not taking the high-percentage throws underneath that are there for the taking. NE took advantage of this tendency by ignoring the underneath routes by taking away all the deeper options he prefers and keeping him hemmed into the pocket. It took Allen out of his game and I think was a teaching moment for Allen. There are 3 or more reasons Allen throws deep: One is the Allen lacks the experience to evaluate his presnap reads to find the best matchup that is likely underneath that requires him to anticipate the open option and quickly throw to a spot. It is not a muscle that he has had to exercise in his past. It is not that he can't do this as some of the talking heads seem to think, just that it is not something he has had to do before to win. The second is that Allen prefers to push the ball past the sticks and it is easier to read a receiver coming open deep than anticipating and hitting quickly the open options underneath. The third is that with the pocket quickly collapsing around Allen (pressured on nearly 40% of his drops), he had to move around and plays broke down and when he rolled out he would look for those deeper receiving options aware that he was in trouble who would work to mirror him behind the coverage that had to account for Allen's ability to take off and run it himself. I agree that there were a lot of cheap shots aimed at Allen and that he needs guys with attitude in front of him. I did not even realize till after re-watching a play against the Dolphins that Alonzo tried to take out Allen's knees clearly after Allen had already ran in a TD. Alonzo hurles himself at his knees, but Allen took a few high steps and eluded the shot the same way he managed to shift to avoid the flying elbow to his head when he was sliding. Can't believe what a cheap-shot douche Alonzo turned into over the years.

My thoughts too. My daughter has some special needs that take some patience, but she is my joy and the 99% reason I get up and go to work each day. I can't wrap my brain around anyone harming a child.

That does not seem to match every other account out there. Link? From other accounts he avoided the trap question and had no complaints about how Houston used him, but did feel he would project and be a more natural 3-tech player in NFL. Blew away folks with his pro-day workout and tweeted "in my element" during the process.

Should have kept those thoughts inside...success is the best revenge, but if you mouth off and stink up the field....

Fair enough. I had zero faith the Bills would ever draft another good QB...was just done hoping after so many poor selections and missed prospects. Allen is a very pleasant surprise. The plan out of camp to start Peterman behind that patchwork line after his showing the prior year behind a much better line seemed doomed to failure. It was. The silver lining was Allen got serious reps in and OBD realized that you have to invest in your o-line.

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing. If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value. I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

Fant actually reminds me a bit of Ebron coming out. Has dominant to freakish physical talent, but did have concentration lapses and more drops than Hockenson. It was that, the routes, and the less effective blocking that had me rating him a bit lower than Hockenson. Like Ebron he will have dominating plays and then some head-scratchers. Bills fans will quickly sour on a guy who blows past everyone and proceeds to drop the ball, or if Josh gets decapitated and replays show Fant whiffing on a block. He is still really good and his ceiling is higher, but it may take a few seasons to see the consistency match the physical talent. Of course if NE picks him up he will dominate us all over the field right out of the gate

The circular logic is kind of funny Why not a TE in the first? Because no one takes TEs in the 1st, or of the 6 or so TEs taken in the 1st only a handful were great. So out of all those defensive line players taken each year in the 1st they all pan out? Statistically, I would have to lean towards more of those defensive players being rather pedestrian and not turning out to be Aaron Donald II. Some of the Bills best defenders were later round picks (although they have an eye for good DBs and have taken their share early). Too early to tell with Edmunds, but he could become a force too. I really would like a generational talent, but at 9 this year I think it going to be a crap shoot regardless of what direction they go offense or defense. I am not advocating taking a TE at 9, I just wouldn't find it alarming if they did. Oliver at 9 that's my pick, but I have some doubts. Why was he was neutralized against some sub-par offensive lines is he a generational talent, was he hampered by scheme or injury, lack of talent around him, does he have a higher ceiling or did he peak a year ago? I still want us to nab a TE, but the class is deep enough that we may be able to land a good one a bit later who will need more coaching up than the IA prospects, but it's a trade off I could understand. Successful offenses have solid to above average TEs, the position is even more prominent with college and NFL teams using more spread formations with the TE as a flex option. https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/12/7/18129492/2018-flex-te-liljordan-humphrey-oklahoma-grant-calcaterra-spread-iso-basketball-on-grass Regardless of what our TBD braintrust thinks about the value of the position, there are 2 to 3 TEs in this draft that will go in the 1st that teams are going to feel are BPA, whether the Bills take one or not. Perhaps that argument of whether or not TEs should be taken in the 1st is moot.

Do you see a sure-fire value at 9 elsewhere? I am not so sure, and I would like us to land a stud edge or tackle. I don't get caught up in where you take certain players if you really like what they can bring...other than punters:) I just don't see us landing any of the defensive blue chippers unless we trade up a few spots, or there is an unlikely run on marginal QBs. I like this defensive class, but feel there are 5-6 top prospects then a lot of maybe guys with high ceilings. You can toss in one or two dbs that could make the top 10 cut too, but not a strong need for this team. If the blue-chippers are gone by our pick then turning to offensive players who can step in and help the team is not that much of a reach. A trade up or down to better align BPA would be preferable. Seems folks are less concerned with taking Hock 4-5 picks later than at 9...seems more like a mental barrier than sound logic.