WideNine

Cover Brown maybe. Just hold him like you are being blocked Nope 2 deep shots and zilch.

WTH was that DB thinking?? Your in man with little help behind you, stay on your feet, wrap up, and drive him out of bounds or just hang on till someone comes to finish him off. Launches himself and whiffs.

EPA is an a good way to assign weight to plays, but aggregate data can sometimes water down or miss important data points. I would think it is always important for coaching staffs to recognize any shortcomings of a tool and know where their coaching subjectivity needs to come into play to tailor plans vs opponents. From nfelo site: Shortcomings of EPA EPA does have its limitations, most notably in its ability to measure individual performance. EPA analysis works for QBs because that position dictates so much of the game. However, football is a team sport, and attributing EPA to other positions like running-back or wide-receiver typically does not yield as much signal. EPA can’t distinguish between a well run route and a well thrown ball. A further limitation of EPA is its inability to capture non-point benefits or benefits not realized by the play in question. For instance, rushing EPA ignores any positive benefit a strong running game may create in the passing game by slowing down a pass rush or the benefit it may provide to a team in their ability to close out games. EPA based analysis can also be limited by the dataset itself. Most EPA analysis is derived from nflfastR's public historical data. This dataset does not have classifications for formation or scheme, which means EPA based analysis typically doesn't have context for the degree of difficulty or intention of the play. Does a QB have high EPA because scheme put them in advantageous positions or because they really played at a high level? A final (and perhaps least recognized) limitation of EPA is its susceptibility to leverage. The power of EPA comes from its ability to recognize that not all yards are created equal. Distance and field position matter. Averaging 5 yards per play generally isn't that great, but gaining 5 yards on any one play can be worth a whole lot of EPA if it converts a first down and extends a drive. The problem with this approach is that it has a tendency to overweight individual plays that may or may not be very predictive of the future. For example, if a team loses a random fumble on first and goal, (which carries an EP value of about six points), they'll end the game with a heavily deflated EPA that understates their overall efficiency as an offense

I acknowledge they are a better team with Tua and their record does not reflect that - fair point. Agree to disagree on the last point. I was not satisfied with our defensive performance and probably would never be and for me it goes beyond scheme to guys winning their 1 on 1's and getting off blocks and how many down field completions we still gave up in their passing game. And our RZ defense was non-existent.

That is true. Just terrible phantom calls that took points off the board or that ridiculous call on Rapp that helped extend that Miami drive.

So bottom line you believe we should be comfortably satisfied with the Bills performance against a 2-6 team coming down to a 61 yard FG having to be made by a shakey kicker? I don't think anyone is unhappy with the fact that we pulled off the "W".

I understand it is a passing league, but I think we are seeing a league-wide trend for 2-TE heavy personnel and more running. I am not looking for a 3-4 defense with Shane Conlin as our ML.. the league evolves and in some ways we see things go out of vogue and get revived with twists. I certainly think that Derrick is a throw back to RBs of yore. Against poor teams where we can get up on them early I don't have a lot of concerns, against good teams that can stop our offense and run at will down the field and then score in the RZ - it's a problem. Perhaps the aggregate data says it generally works, but curious how that will hold up against the better teams down the stretch in that smaller sample size. We will see

I get what Joe is saying, but not sure if that explains why RZ defense was terrible. I think I could better live with conceding drives with runs and short passes moving the sticks if those drives ended in 3-point attempts. That is an area on the field where you are not defending explosive (passing) plays so how do the Bills tighten up there? Or just chalk it up to Miami having schemes down there where we did not have answers, but teams will look to do similar things to us if they have the players to pull it off.

Yeah. I think I saw DQ get blocked on one play cleanly one-on-one by their FB, and that is a battle I normally would expect the big guy to win. Not the best outing for that group for sure

I think Oliver can be a bit of a liability too as good teams invite the penetration from 3-techs like him and either let him take himself out of the play or wash him out with wham blocks. Great penetrating pass rushers have to be able to switch gears playing the run.

I think that is the only way we could beat them...unless Henry or Lamar blow a tire and either can't run so you don't have to defend both. Henry is just a load if he gets past the first level.

I agree that the horrible series that started with the Cook drop could have changed the game script. So could Mostart hanging onto the rock and not fumbling away Miami's chance to take a solid lead which allowed us to put them into catch-up mode. There are ways the coin could have flipped for either team, but I would have liked to see something a bit more creative generating some pressure and getting a few stops. Obviously, that comes with some risk as it was a Miami blitz that left things wide open on the Davis pitch and catch TD. But they often got pressure on Allen and forced him off his spots far more than we did with Tua. That said, Allen was Houdini avoiding the rush and making smart decisions with the ball. I guarantee Spags would not have rolled with something so vanilla, or he would have changed things up that weren't working. I just cannot forget all the times we roll into the playoffs with a solid offense and great Allen performances only to have the defense piss it away so there is some history bias at play. With a defensive HC and so much investment on that side of the ball, you expect more.

Defense as a whole yes, not just Von. And I think our lightish LBs are dropping like flies because so many backs and blockers are hitting them with a full head of steam at the second level. Of course I remember too well the one 3rd down where we did finally stop them and Von was Offside and gave them the fresh set of downs so was salty about that. There were attempts to set the edge and string out the zone runs, but mixed results as they usually churned out 5 or more yards And even when our ends did the right thing, strung things out and turned the runner back inside there was no one picking up the cut back lanes. Glad for the win against a desparate Miami squad, but defensive scheme, players, or both left me with anything but warm fuzzies. Not taking anything away from Miami, if that owner blows things up I think that would be foolish as I did not see a lot of quit in that team we played.

Yeah I know there are some who will disagree with me and they are welcome to it. In no world was that a good defensive outing for us yesterday and some of that is the respect for Hill and Waddle, but have seen similar defensive performances and strategies this season. We can mask a lot if our team can jump out and get early leads, but we get exposed by better teams who hang with us or take the lead and stay committed to running the ball. We are near the bottom at 4.8 yds/attempt, but in good company with Detroit although they have faced fewer rushing attempts as we are a game up on them.

We are not built to stop a running team and will simply get run over....again. There are teams we match up decently against, the Ravens are not one of them.