ImpactCorey

The only difference shown here vs my scenario is Miami losing one of their next two. Definitely need that to happen.

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in. I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

The perfect storm has to happen! Here's to hoping it doesn't. Go Bills!

Yes. Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis are not in the same division.

You're missing a very important piece: The key detail here is how the process is repeated. So while you eliminate them on first pass, you do not on the second.

I'm sorry but you are incorrect. I laid it out here

Excellent analysis. Go Bills!

I hear ya. However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field. He only threw for 82 yards! There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

Thanks for bringing this up! You got me looking deeper into this and boy does it get tricky. First thing that happens is division leaders are determined. Given my scenario, Miami, Baltimore, and KC have the best records so they get it. However, in the AFC South, Jax and Indy would be tied but Jax would have the head-to-head so they get it. On to figuring out the wildcards! https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures The rules state that when you have 3 or more teams tied across divisions, you basically keep using divisional rankings and compare the leaders. So you start with Buffalo, Indy, and figure out the leader of Cleveland and Cincy. This ends up being Cleveland because while the head-to-head would be tied, Cincy has the better conference record. Of Buffalo, Indy, and Cleveland only Indy and Cleveland played each other so head-to-head can't be used and moves on to conference record. That goes to between Indy and Cleveland who would both be 8-4. With one team removed from the tie, this RE-applies head-to-head so Cleveland gets the first wildcard! Next battle goes between Buffalo, Cincy, and Indy. Both Buffalo and Indy lost to Cincy, so Cincy is in! Final spot goes to either Buffalo and Indy who didn't face each other. But as we established earlier, Indy has the better conference record so they get it. My SAT scores would confirm this!

This scenario is very similar to the one I laid out! The main difference is Miami losing out instead of winning 2 of 3. That's the swing between Miami missing and Buffalo missing. I could be. Or maybe a long-time Bills fan that has become so accustomed to heartbreak that I agonize over even the least likely of possibilities. 😅

I accept all blame 😅

I think people might assume I want this to happen while I really really don’t. I expected a little bit of push back but all I wanted was to talk about how crazy it is where a team can go 11-6 and still miss without something insane like every game ending in a tie for the rest of the season. I wanted to lay out a believable case and root for it to NOT happen. Merry Christmas! It is coming so fast! I needed a distraction for one night 😅

Hey no worries at all. Go Bills!

You need to factor in the entire sentence together. I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens. There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about. I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like. I figured others might be too and shared my work. It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything. When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

It is possible but I don't think so. I spent way more time messing around with results than I should have haha. But if you figure out something I'm missing let me know!

I think you're right about them not winning out but I could see them winning this weekend's match up. Bengals on a 3 game winning streak while Steelers on a 3 game skid.

I prefer wings on the bone. Go Bills!

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost. That's true!

Crazy. And that's with playing 1 less game!

Valuable? No. But apparently it was interesting enough for you to participate! Thanks for stopping by.

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs. >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs? This is what I came up with: - First, the Bills win out. They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins. With how they are playing as of late, very possible. - The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills. These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens. This allows them to still win the division. These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible. - With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers. I think the Steelers game is almost a lock. - The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans. All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy. - Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers. These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage. However, KC drops one to the Bengals. More on this later. - The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans. Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way. - The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals. Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets. This seems reasonable. Bengals being a key loss again. - The Bengals win out. They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns. Two key wins as previously mentioned. This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial. Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes. Steelers are falling apart. Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up. I'll definitely be paying attention. So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out. You know.. in case you were wondering.

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios. The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1. What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose. So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

never secured it. FCS

Is there a worse play than the shotgun hand off?

I can hear this image.