No_Matter_What

Not possible. I heard from a reliable poster here that he is a Bear! Really curious about the terms. If it is 4 years this will be a recurring thread theme one way or another. Welcome Ryan "Rick" Bates, new Bills legend!

Alpha did you read what I wrote? I didn't argue with you I agree with you that they are weaker then they were and I don't like what they did over past years. I only wanted to add that I'd like to be able to quantify that "kicking the can down the road" thing, since Bills started this year and it is very likely that they will continue next year. So I'd like to gain some knowledge where is the turning point from being fine to do so and where does Saints road start (if it makes sense) Yeah this is spot on. Thing is that we started mortgaging a little bit this year, and I am almost sure we will go farther next year. I am not saying we shouldn't, just stating the fact. I think you asked me before how much - I don't know yet, I didn't see any relevant metric for this, and I will try to come up with my own once the draft is over and dust settles at Sportrac. But for sure we already have worse cap situation for 2023 than we had for 2022 a year ago (again, I am not saying I would not do that if I was Beane, it is somewhat inevitable for top teams).

I understand where you coming from and I tend to generally agree. It is similar argument which people (including me) use against drafting RB in the first round. But I don't think that argument is fair without some context. You obviously choose Allen but we are not talking QBs here. We are talking guard vs valuable nonQB positions like LT, CB or DE. Then the question is how valuable is top guard vs top CB or DE. To answer it I would like some serious analyses. Because you can say what you said about Nelson, but I can say the same about Garrett, T.J.Watt, J.J.Watt, Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, etc, just to include those who aren't busts. Have they won anything? And some of them are playing on teams which consistently lose or are consistently mediocre. Also discussing which guys from the list are good and which are busts (and ratio between them) is only relevant if you do the same exercise for all other positions. Just from the top of my head there were 6 CBs taken in first round of 2020 draft. As far as I know at least 4 of them are already considered as busts or are quickly approaching that status. And nobody says that drafting CB in the first round is a bad idea. So, my point main is - is there any relevant study which positions actually contribute to teams' success and how much? And is the gap between OG and lets say CB that big that you "always" take Kyle Gordon and not Zion Johnson? I don't know, but I doubt that it has obvious answer.

Because people see that they were $60M over the cap, now they are $30M under the cap, don't see a lot of lost players (i.e. consider their roster basically the same) and make a conclusion that cap space is a myth. It is the same principle when people are calling Beane a "wizard" when he makes cap space by restructuring Milano or keeps Von Millers cap hit at $5M this year. Whereas it obviously isn't a myth, Saints lost some players and they are definitely borrowing from the future and Beane is just doing something trivial what every other GM can do and does. Problem I see that nobody exactly knows to what extent they (Saints, and at some extent Bills already this year) mortgaged the future. At least I don't remember seeing any quality article or something like that. I mean I can see all the data on Sportrac too, I think I understand all the basics about cap space, I understand that they restructured all deals, that all base salaries are now minimal at the expense of the future (prorated restructure bonus), but I don't remember seeing any quality analytics when will this eventually catch them - something like when the ratio between dead cap / restructures to total cap space next year will be worse than X then Y happens or so. I'll try to analyze that myself after the draft (when Sportrac has all preseason data), but I am not sure I have enough data (I'd need some previous seasons probably) and enough brains to come to anything meaningful.

Yep it seems so, I just remembered what was written here. Thats good news btw. Finally this watch will be over

Someone said earlier in this thread that deadline is Wednesday 4pm.

I thought that only NFL teams could participate...

Problem with Kinnard in Gunner's mock is that we seem to be in no man's land in 2nd round overall, esp. if we draft WR in the 1st round. I thinkit is very likely that we'd like to draft CB, WR and IOL early, but as it follows from Gunner's mock as well as other boards I've seen there are no CBs/IOL who match value with our 2nd round pick. There might possibly be some WRs that's why I am saying that it gets much worse if we draft WR in the first round. Therefore, Zion Johnson/WR/CB or Booth (Gordon, Elam, other CB they like)/WR/IOL seems to be the way to go. Possible solution could be moving around the board. However, as discussed above, it probably won't be easy to trade down in first, and it won't be cheap to trade up in the second - for example our 4th round pick (which I wouldn't be happy to give up anyway) can maybe get us from pick 57 to pick 52 or so, which is not much. Or do you guys see any players who could be available at 57 and you'd be really happy to take them? There is always an option to take completely other positions, but the way it looks now I'd be shocked if they didn't try to draft IOL and CB in first 3 rounds and I also think they would love some top talent at WR.

Great work as as always @GunnerBill. Couple of my comments: Its obvious that you like Booth but you seem to be in a minority. He seems to be falling down a lot. Tankathon (whose board is imo just a combination/compilation of other boards) already has him at 29 (he was around 10-15 two months ago), and from recent mocks Zierlein has him at 25 to Bills, NBS at 29, WalterFootbal at 30, Reuter and Sportingnews have him at 31, and Jeremiah and Kiper don't even have him in first. I think I still saw him somewhere at 13 to Browns but can't find it now. So all in all, you seem to value him much higher than consensus. As for guards, you have two of them in the first round. I think you always say that you'd draft guards in the first round if they are top talents only - does in mean that these two are that good or that Chargers/Pats will reach for them? Would you pick any of them for Bills (if Booth/Olave are both gone)? As for Tampa, I agree with @Aussie Bill that they are not taking QB. Brady is no Rodgers, and I really think they will try to win one more and won't care about future that much.

Didn't read the article, but I'd say it cannot be excluded given all the previous rumors.

My theory that difference in this number and number showed by Sportrac (2.3M) is Jordan Phillips contract. Sportrac shows 3.5M cap hit but misses contract details and there is something different at overthecap, so I think there is actually a void year and his 2022 cap hit is lower. So I tend to believe we have actually 2.9M but lower cap space next year. This makes zero sense. Just because things can and will change it doesn't mean that current data mean nothing. We know exacty how much draft picks cost so we can calculate that. If we sign another corner and make one more restructure how does it make all current data irrelevant? Now we see why Lawson was more reluctant to sign a contract than Phillips

Yes, first couple of days Sportrac had it at 7.7M, which was consistent with some tweet that it was standard cut. 2 days ago or so they changed it.

Interesting. Google says this guy is a tackle projected at the end ouf 2nd round, I didn't think we were focusing on tackles too. But I am for anything what makes our line better.

Josh can go "down" for 4-5 games and solid backup can make a huge difference then.

I'll correct you if you really want to Bolded is wrong. It is actually only $1.72M - $895k for Dane Jackson and $825 for Marquez Stevenson. Stevenson's signing bonus $43k counts for cap. Completely irrelevant though I also add that Sportrac still has Star's dead money at $5.2M, so they clearly think its post 1 June cut and there will be another $2.6M dead cap in 2023.

I just found out and came to post this. This is incredible. 2M cash and cap hit for Crowder? Thats just sick. There are probably some bonuses "not likely to be earned" which might increase his earnings but holy cow.

I have no problem with Hill in Miami, Dolphins are not a threat. But I hope they don't overpay. Thank God they don't have their own 1st round pick this year, but I still don't like the idea of Chiefs having 2 extra first round picks. It may actually be smart idea on Chiefs side how to manage the cap.

Nah cmon man our division is as weak as they go. We have nothing to complain about. Hill to Dolphins is better that Hill staying in Chiefs But Hill to Panthers or so is still better, no argument there.

Interesting. So who do think will be on the roster? Dawkins, Saffold, Morse, Brown, Doyle and early draft pick are stone cold locks. Thats 6. Seven if you count Bates, but you are also saying you wouldn't match any higher offer, so not sure we can count him. Assuming there will be 9 OL on the roster, you need 2 more to get ahead of Ford. Is it Mancz and another (late) draft pick? Or do you still expect Beane to sign somebody better than Ford in FA? I am not arguing with you I just don't see how Ford (still on the rookie deal) could be cut, esp. with new OL coach.

Agreed. I'd say that no matter if Bates leave there is like 99% chance we draft IOL in first 3 rounds, but still. I don't understand the game enough to compare players but so far we have just exchanged Williams for Saffold (which is a small upgrade I guess) and got worse in depth. If Bates leaves it gets much worse. Even if we draft Zion Johnson that would be still less than I hoped for. Anyway, this is the reason why I believe that plan is to draft OG very early. And since there doesn't seem to be value in round 2, I fully expect to draft Johnson round 1 (or maybe after trade down in 1st or trade up in 2nd).

Looks like he got 3,5M (3M guaranteed). https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ That's more than I thought, but he may be well worth it. EDIT: Overthecap sees it differently (and worse). They say he has 2,5M signing bonus and has 2023 as void year with 1,25M dead cap https://overthecap.com/player/jordan-phillips/3900/

Sportrac has Jordan Phillips already on with 3,5M cap hit. Also seems as 3,5M one year contract, 3M guaranteed, no void years, but details are not on. Also, Star's dead cap has changed to 5,2M. Looks like they think it is actually a post 1 June cut, but it doesn't show any 2023 dead cap. Hopefully it will be clarified soon.

Sportrac has just changed Star's dead cap for 2022 to 5,2M, which would indicate post 1 June cut. But it doesn't show any 2023 dead cap. Not sure what to think about it.

Yes please! Your mocks are best part of post FA offseason, esp. voting for Bills picks. Thank you in advance.

I have something in common with Hanzus.