No_Matter_What

Yeah these rumors make me feel that Bills are doing their homework

Well he certainly is given how much he just got paid I think he is very good. He is not worth that much probably but I think if you have QB like him it is still better to overpay him then let him ho and hope that you will find a better one.

First of all thanks for the work and good discussion topic. My two general comments: 1. Sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. 2. Most of things you listed are only relevant if we know league-wide numbers. This conference thing is really interesting. To put it into perspective, there were 1277 players selected in last 5 years, 185 of which were from ACC and 298 from SEC - that is 14,5% ACC and 23,3% SEC. As you noted, Bills have drafted 32,4% ACC and only 10,8% SEC. That's extreme difference (vs league total numbers), even for such small sample size. I'd say this is really a tendency. Anybody has a clue what is the reason? These numbers need some comparison with whole NFL. How many of all drafted players were in the Senoir Bowl? What percentage of draftees participate at the combine? Anybody knows? For example, if 95% of players drafted were at the combine and participants constitute 97% of players we drafted, then it is not much of a tendency. I see that usually over 320 players are invited to combine and about 255 players are drafted, so I assume almost everybody who is drafted was actually at the combine. As for the pre draft visits, I guess it is the same (similar) for all teams. I am confused how you counted this one. Who are those 6 players? Did you count WR as premier position? I have no idea who did you include. Last 5 years there were 9 players drafted by the Bills in the first 2 rounds: DE Rousseau, DE Basham, DE Epenesa, DT Oliver, OT Ford, QB Allen, LB Edmunds, CB White, WR Jones, OT Dawkins (listed as OG on wiki - I don't remember what he was on college). But in orded to consider this we need to be clear what is "premier position" and then compare it to league wide numbers. Well, this is certainly true

Rousseau was never a healthy scratch. He also started every game we player and never fell below 38% of snaps.

Agreed. We are really lucky to have him and kudos to Beane for the trade that brought him in. I didn't notice your opinion on his extension though, esp. now since the contract details are out and he has $21.5M signing bonus. What is interesting is that Sportrac already shows his 2023 option bonus prorated five years*. As a result, Diggs has dead cap of $18M in 2025, which essentially ties him to Buffalo for at least 4 seasons (and even after that he has $10M dead cap). I do think/hope that it is a good deal and I love Diggs but this requires him to produce at high level for 4 years at least. What do you think? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stefon-diggs-16872/ *I have no idea what is option bonus, but I thought that it worked like base salary and thus right now it would be a lump sum counted towards 2023 cap hit, and we will have an option to convert it and prorate it before 2023 season. To my surprise Sportrac shows it already prorated. However, it doesn't matter much I guess since we would have done it anyway. God I hate using conditionals in English

Yeah but half of the fans wouldn't be alive to witness it Some would broke their monitors after we passed on him at 57, and the rest would have heart attack after we passed on him at 80.

Irrelevant to the topic, but what's the point of starting every other tweet with "breaking"? Russian invasion was breaking news, not that one guy joins another guys lawsuit (even moreso when this was hinted long time ago).

I find it really interesting how for Edmunds you count also 2nd rounder we spent to move up but for Diggs you refuse to consider it as using a first round for offense

Agreed. Now we just need to make sure that guy we take at 25 is better than whoever they pick couple spots later. I wouldn't be surprised if they jumped us either.

Exactly. At this point I'll be stunned if we don't draft WR in first two rounds. But it seems that either we take on in first, or we need to trade up in second.

I think he really needs to keep $3M or so for the season for any players who replace IR players. Also, I think this is top51 cap space, but full roster is 53 so there's another $1,8M for two players needed (unless I am misunderstanding something). Also, I still think that Sportrac has Star wrong. They count him as 5,2M dead cap, but it should be 7,8M. So in my opinion this creates space for some cheap CB FA only. If we want someone more expensive then another restructure is required, and I guess that Beane will be reluctant to do so since you only can kick the can so far. But there are obviously other options, like trading Edmunds

I think that when @Virgil comes back from high level meeting he will appreciate some input on who should be included in the poll. I'll leave it to smarter guys but expect to see some OL, WR, TE, LB and S.

Not sure why people often say this. I think its completely irrelevant. Dead money this year contributes to our tight cap this year. Next year our cap will be even tighter. We will not have current dead money weight, but there will be a lot of new dead money, and a lot of high cap hits. Once we sign this year's rookies we will be probably already over the cap with maybe 42 players, and 10 of them PS quality players. Lol. You can't be serious with "start", can you? I think you mentioned in your later posts but is is actually less than $2 mil for the rookies. Top 2 require almost exactly additional $2mil, 3rd adds some change, but if we keep some rookies from lower rounds (which we will), they will actually lower our cap hit. So it will be $2 mil (unless Beans moves a lot in the draft). Diggs' old cap hit was around $17M. New numbers are not known yet, but I guess his 2022 cap hit will be something between $5-8M, max $10M (Von Miller had $5M despite his contract). So this creates cap space for rookies, $3M needed for some in season changes and maybe some cheap FA CB.

In general I agree but its very unlikely/almost impossible that 2nd year will be so low from the beginning. It will be more like 10,22,26,26,28,28. But it is also very likely that next year we will need to kick some more can down the road, so we restructure him and it will in fact end up like you said (and last year or two he will not be here and we will eat som dead cap). Anyway with this extension I think we are already nicely over the 2023 cap

Right but in both cases its not hard to see who is the odd man out. Milano was just restructured and he'd left us with ton of dead cap even if traded. Same with Hyde. Poyer/Edmunds are the ones who might not have a future with the Bills. I agree that Knox/Oliver will be paid. Hopefully they will be both reasonable.

Absolutely. There will be odd men out, and these to seem like prime candidates. At this stage I'd be really surprised if they extend Edmunds.

Bolded is nonsense Scott. The sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Beane wasn't here in 2017, but even if I give you 2017 its still 4 defense 2 offense and all the picks made total sense (i.e. it wasn't "prirotizing defense"). 2017 White was apparently BPA or very close to it and in hindsight its either him or TJ Watt (i.e. no offensive player). 2018 was Allen and Edmunds. 2019 was Oliver and there was no realistic offensive option (I don't count Metcalf, guy went in 60s). 2020 Diggs. 2021 Rousseau, clearly among BPsA and I don't think there were realistic offensive options. ANd there were strong rumours that Bills wanted RB (both were drafted ahead of us). You can't make any conclusions from 6 picks, even if you do 4/2 is not "always" and to me its pretty obvious that there is no pattern. And I am also pretty sure that we will draft a lot of offense high this year (I really think they want 1st round WR, but we don't know how the board falls).

Interesting. So at the end of the day, it is not a frontloaded deal at all. If Beane and co think that he is at least average starterthis was a no brainer. It is essentially 9/2 deal. Now we need him to be at least slightly above average starter for 2 years. If he is better and stays longer then this was a great deal.

So they made it out of this mock with Ekwonu, Booth, Mafe, Muma and Tolbert. I mean its still the Jets but that is some serious influx of talent @GunnerBill.

It can also be Jets if their top guys are gone at 4 or even Texans (if Saints add their 2nd round). All these trades make some sort of sense imo. It will be weird on Saints part but I don't pretend that I understand what is their plan anyway so...

Not that it matters much but I don't think TEs (ie McBride) should be excluded based on our roster. I'd also include at least one more WR.

Anderson? Man you got me confused for a while. I guess you meant Lorenzo? Anyway this forced me to check our roster and at least PFR says that starters were changing a lot (e.g. Oliver has 7 starts, Phillips has 9). Trent Murphy is listed as a full time starter (16 games) tho.

I am not arguing with this list but there have to be some WRs included. Metchie & Robinson?

My take is that this hopefully prevents Patriots from drafting WR in the first round, giving us one more option.

This imo really depends and is not set in stone. I use drafttek https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf. Our pick has value of 720, lets say Bills next year is in average 27 which is 680. Together it is 1400, while pick 7 is 1500. So maybe we need to throw in this year's 3 or really a player. People often say that next years draft picks have smaller value. I am not sure why, but if that is really the case then in theory it should be more expensive for us. But if Giants want that extra 1st round next year badly and have no other offers, then who knows.