No_Matter_What

Great work as as always @GunnerBill. Couple of my comments: Its obvious that you like Booth but you seem to be in a minority. He seems to be falling down a lot. Tankathon (whose board is imo just a combination/compilation of other boards) already has him at 29 (he was around 10-15 two months ago), and from recent mocks Zierlein has him at 25 to Bills, NBS at 29, WalterFootbal at 30, Reuter and Sportingnews have him at 31, and Jeremiah and Kiper don't even have him in first. I think I still saw him somewhere at 13 to Browns but can't find it now. So all in all, you seem to value him much higher than consensus. As for guards, you have two of them in the first round. I think you always say that you'd draft guards in the first round if they are top talents only - does in mean that these two are that good or that Chargers/Pats will reach for them? Would you pick any of them for Bills (if Booth/Olave are both gone)? As for Tampa, I agree with @Aussie Bill that they are not taking QB. Brady is no Rodgers, and I really think they will try to win one more and won't care about future that much.

Didn't read the article, but I'd say it cannot be excluded given all the previous rumors.

My theory that difference in this number and number showed by Sportrac (2.3M) is Jordan Phillips contract. Sportrac shows 3.5M cap hit but misses contract details and there is something different at overthecap, so I think there is actually a void year and his 2022 cap hit is lower. So I tend to believe we have actually 2.9M but lower cap space next year. This makes zero sense. Just because things can and will change it doesn't mean that current data mean nothing. We know exacty how much draft picks cost so we can calculate that. If we sign another corner and make one more restructure how does it make all current data irrelevant? Now we see why Lawson was more reluctant to sign a contract than Phillips

Yes, first couple of days Sportrac had it at 7.7M, which was consistent with some tweet that it was standard cut. 2 days ago or so they changed it.

Interesting. Google says this guy is a tackle projected at the end ouf 2nd round, I didn't think we were focusing on tackles too. But I am for anything what makes our line better.

Josh can go "down" for 4-5 games and solid backup can make a huge difference then.

I'll correct you if you really want to Bolded is wrong. It is actually only $1.72M - $895k for Dane Jackson and $825 for Marquez Stevenson. Stevenson's signing bonus $43k counts for cap. Completely irrelevant though I also add that Sportrac still has Star's dead money at $5.2M, so they clearly think its post 1 June cut and there will be another $2.6M dead cap in 2023.

I just found out and came to post this. This is incredible. 2M cash and cap hit for Crowder? Thats just sick. There are probably some bonuses "not likely to be earned" which might increase his earnings but holy cow.

I have no problem with Hill in Miami, Dolphins are not a threat. But I hope they don't overpay. Thank God they don't have their own 1st round pick this year, but I still don't like the idea of Chiefs having 2 extra first round picks. It may actually be smart idea on Chiefs side how to manage the cap.

Nah cmon man our division is as weak as they go. We have nothing to complain about. Hill to Dolphins is better that Hill staying in Chiefs But Hill to Panthers or so is still better, no argument there.

Interesting. So who do think will be on the roster? Dawkins, Saffold, Morse, Brown, Doyle and early draft pick are stone cold locks. Thats 6. Seven if you count Bates, but you are also saying you wouldn't match any higher offer, so not sure we can count him. Assuming there will be 9 OL on the roster, you need 2 more to get ahead of Ford. Is it Mancz and another (late) draft pick? Or do you still expect Beane to sign somebody better than Ford in FA? I am not arguing with you I just don't see how Ford (still on the rookie deal) could be cut, esp. with new OL coach.

Agreed. I'd say that no matter if Bates leave there is like 99% chance we draft IOL in first 3 rounds, but still. I don't understand the game enough to compare players but so far we have just exchanged Williams for Saffold (which is a small upgrade I guess) and got worse in depth. If Bates leaves it gets much worse. Even if we draft Zion Johnson that would be still less than I hoped for. Anyway, this is the reason why I believe that plan is to draft OG very early. And since there doesn't seem to be value in round 2, I fully expect to draft Johnson round 1 (or maybe after trade down in 1st or trade up in 2nd).

Looks like he got 3,5M (3M guaranteed). https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ That's more than I thought, but he may be well worth it. EDIT: Overthecap sees it differently (and worse). They say he has 2,5M signing bonus and has 2023 as void year with 1,25M dead cap https://overthecap.com/player/jordan-phillips/3900/

Sportrac has Jordan Phillips already on with 3,5M cap hit. Also seems as 3,5M one year contract, 3M guaranteed, no void years, but details are not on. Also, Star's dead cap has changed to 5,2M. Looks like they think it is actually a post 1 June cut, but it doesn't show any 2023 dead cap. Hopefully it will be clarified soon.

Sportrac has just changed Star's dead cap for 2022 to 5,2M, which would indicate post 1 June cut. But it doesn't show any 2023 dead cap. Not sure what to think about it.

Yes please! Your mocks are best part of post FA offseason, esp. voting for Bills picks. Thank you in advance.

I have something in common with Hanzus.

So that means better/worse than Ford/Feliciano/Boettger?

That's really cheap, especially for Johnson. Both have around 350k guaranteed, which is not great wrt Mancz, since I hope he will not be good enough to make the roster.

I've seen Ojabo now mocked to Texans in the 2nd and to me that makes ton of sense. As for the Bills, I really expect some combo of WR/OG/CB in first three rounds as a base plan (unless player too good to pass on drops). So we only have to find optimal value. Judging by Tankathon board the biggest problem to find value on these positions is 2nd round, where they have no OGs and very few players on other positions. 1st round is great since we will have probably tons of options either way (Burks/Olave/Willamson/Dotson - Johnson/Green - Booth/Elam/McDuffie/Gordon). 3rd round also seem to have value everywhere. So for me its just a matter of tiers in all positions, drops between them and finding the right combo. My main wish is to find a best guard possible.

Yeah we've heard this before. I'd be shocked if we didn't add FA CB prior draft. Beane is just waiting for Bradbury or for the dust to settle competely and then will sign some cheap vet. Other than that I tend to believe him.

How can it be already underrated?

I use drafttek https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf but it doesn't matter much. Next years second doesn't get you from 25 to 15, moreso to 10-15 range. And our 3rd and 4th doesn't even get you to end of 2nd, not to mention first. That's total nonsense.

I guess you've never seen any NFL draft value charts. All your trades are totally off.

Giving up next years 1st round for a CB doesn't sound like a good plan to me, and I doubt Beane sees it differently.