No_Matter_What

Exactly. At this point I'll be stunned if we don't draft WR in first two rounds. But it seems that either we take on in first, or we need to trade up in second.

I think he really needs to keep $3M or so for the season for any players who replace IR players. Also, I think this is top51 cap space, but full roster is 53 so there's another $1,8M for two players needed (unless I am misunderstanding something). Also, I still think that Sportrac has Star wrong. They count him as 5,2M dead cap, but it should be 7,8M. So in my opinion this creates space for some cheap CB FA only. If we want someone more expensive then another restructure is required, and I guess that Beane will be reluctant to do so since you only can kick the can so far. But there are obviously other options, like trading Edmunds

I think that when @Virgil comes back from high level meeting he will appreciate some input on who should be included in the poll. I'll leave it to smarter guys but expect to see some OL, WR, TE, LB and S.

Not sure why people often say this. I think its completely irrelevant. Dead money this year contributes to our tight cap this year. Next year our cap will be even tighter. We will not have current dead money weight, but there will be a lot of new dead money, and a lot of high cap hits. Once we sign this year's rookies we will be probably already over the cap with maybe 42 players, and 10 of them PS quality players. Lol. You can't be serious with "start", can you? I think you mentioned in your later posts but is is actually less than $2 mil for the rookies. Top 2 require almost exactly additional $2mil, 3rd adds some change, but if we keep some rookies from lower rounds (which we will), they will actually lower our cap hit. So it will be $2 mil (unless Beans moves a lot in the draft). Diggs' old cap hit was around $17M. New numbers are not known yet, but I guess his 2022 cap hit will be something between $5-8M, max $10M (Von Miller had $5M despite his contract). So this creates cap space for rookies, $3M needed for some in season changes and maybe some cheap FA CB.

In general I agree but its very unlikely/almost impossible that 2nd year will be so low from the beginning. It will be more like 10,22,26,26,28,28. But it is also very likely that next year we will need to kick some more can down the road, so we restructure him and it will in fact end up like you said (and last year or two he will not be here and we will eat som dead cap). Anyway with this extension I think we are already nicely over the 2023 cap

Right but in both cases its not hard to see who is the odd man out. Milano was just restructured and he'd left us with ton of dead cap even if traded. Same with Hyde. Poyer/Edmunds are the ones who might not have a future with the Bills. I agree that Knox/Oliver will be paid. Hopefully they will be both reasonable.

Absolutely. There will be odd men out, and these to seem like prime candidates. At this stage I'd be really surprised if they extend Edmunds.

Bolded is nonsense Scott. The sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. Beane wasn't here in 2017, but even if I give you 2017 its still 4 defense 2 offense and all the picks made total sense (i.e. it wasn't "prirotizing defense"). 2017 White was apparently BPA or very close to it and in hindsight its either him or TJ Watt (i.e. no offensive player). 2018 was Allen and Edmunds. 2019 was Oliver and there was no realistic offensive option (I don't count Metcalf, guy went in 60s). 2020 Diggs. 2021 Rousseau, clearly among BPsA and I don't think there were realistic offensive options. ANd there were strong rumours that Bills wanted RB (both were drafted ahead of us). You can't make any conclusions from 6 picks, even if you do 4/2 is not "always" and to me its pretty obvious that there is no pattern. And I am also pretty sure that we will draft a lot of offense high this year (I really think they want 1st round WR, but we don't know how the board falls).

Interesting. So at the end of the day, it is not a frontloaded deal at all. If Beane and co think that he is at least average starterthis was a no brainer. It is essentially 9/2 deal. Now we need him to be at least slightly above average starter for 2 years. If he is better and stays longer then this was a great deal.

So they made it out of this mock with Ekwonu, Booth, Mafe, Muma and Tolbert. I mean its still the Jets but that is some serious influx of talent @GunnerBill.

It can also be Jets if their top guys are gone at 4 or even Texans (if Saints add their 2nd round). All these trades make some sort of sense imo. It will be weird on Saints part but I don't pretend that I understand what is their plan anyway so...

Not that it matters much but I don't think TEs (ie McBride) should be excluded based on our roster. I'd also include at least one more WR.

Anderson? Man you got me confused for a while. I guess you meant Lorenzo? Anyway this forced me to check our roster and at least PFR says that starters were changing a lot (e.g. Oliver has 7 starts, Phillips has 9). Trent Murphy is listed as a full time starter (16 games) tho.

I am not arguing with this list but there have to be some WRs included. Metchie & Robinson?

My take is that this hopefully prevents Patriots from drafting WR in the first round, giving us one more option.

This imo really depends and is not set in stone. I use drafttek https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf. Our pick has value of 720, lets say Bills next year is in average 27 which is 680. Together it is 1400, while pick 7 is 1500. So maybe we need to throw in this year's 3 or really a player. People often say that next years draft picks have smaller value. I am not sure why, but if that is really the case then in theory it should be more expensive for us. But if Giants want that extra 1st round next year badly and have no other offers, then who knows.

On a related note, I think people who are adamant that trading Edmunds is completely out of question and are 100% sure that he is in Bills longterm plans could be possibly in for a big surprise. I think Milano restructure this offseason (the only one known right now along with Hyde) is very telling. Milano is definitely in longterm plans, and we are paying second LBs big money only in case that he really deserves it (and I am not sure of that even in such case, given that we still need to pay Diggs, Oliver, Knox, etc.). I really think Edmunds is on trading block. Only problem I see is that trading him creates a hole. It can be filled by 2nd round LB, but we still need OG and WR drafted fairly high. This will be fun to watch.

I love draft picks and I hate giving them up. But more I think about this the more it makes sense. Just as you said. Giants want to trade down. There is a connection between GMs. Beane has clearly decided to go more "all-in" than last year (already evidenced by Von Miller signing). If, from any reason Beane believes that some player available at 7 gets us over the top (Gardner?), I can see him pullting the trigger. And I probably wouldn't be fully against it. Problem I see is that even our 1st rounder next year isn't probably enough - Giants know that most likely it will again be 25th pick at best, probably much worse. Therefore, adding an established vet who might have some value to Giants makes sense. I have no idea who that might be. I seriously doubt we are trading away Edmunds if we don't have his replacement. It also requires additional $2.3M or so cap space this year (for higher drafted rookie), which means even more mortgaging of the future. However, if they think this way, deal can happen on draft night only. They are not moving up like this without being certain that their guy is there.

Huh? Milano WAS restructured this offseason and it saved us about §5.2M in cap space.

He is trying to find a way how to draft McCaffrey.

Rumors and Beane should not be in same sentence.

I feel exactly the opposite. I'd say there's a 90%+ chance we will take WR in first 3 rounds.

Deal is already on Sportrac, seems to be $1.145M, with $125k dead cap (which I guess we eat, since he won't make 53 and will be cut/signed to PS?) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/matt-barkley-12379/ What I don't understand is his cap hit listed as $920k. Shouldn't it be $1.145M as well? @DrDawkinstein

I like how this went for the Bills - in reality I hope for Penning/Booth/Olave/Williams/Burks and I think there is a chance that one of them will be here. But here in TSW mock I wanted to see this exact scenario just to see what people think we should do if all of the above are gone. I am really surprised that Gordon, Elam and Zion Johnson weren't included, instead of e.g. McBride, Faalele or Walker, who could possibly be in conversation, but one round later. But in the end it would probably didn't matter, given how clearly McDuffie won. After reading a lot about him I am still confused. I am not sure if I was able to get excited about the pick. But for example Jeremiah is very high on him (14th on his overall list), so if Bills think the same, I will be on board.

Nope. We need to select Breece Hall in TSW poll first and Virgil usually lets that run for some time