No_Matter_What

I don't know what AV is, but Mac Jones is 3rd in this ranking, so...

Agreed, but it'd funny how it works. If we lose on Monday, we want Ravens to win, so we can be seed 2. But if we win, we want Bengals to beat Ravens, so we can play Ravens after the bye (if they beat Jags/Titans), and let Bengals/Chiefs fight each other.

OP starts a thread about specific player and in no time this is about all other draft picks and Beane drafting in general. SMH. As for Basham, he seems like a fine rotational piece to me. If he was drafted in 3rd/4th he would be a nice pick, so yes, he is a little bit disappointing. But at the time when he was picked he was often mocked higher so this is fine with me. And he still has a chance to be a liitle bit better. My only problem is that I've always felt we should be drafting OL more/sooner, and this looked like a good moment to draft Creed Humphrey (not a hindsight, I don't follow college, so I only knew him by name, but he was OL who seemed like a fit and was talked about when we picked) and now we know he should've been the pick.

I'd say not "almost halves", but "more than halves". It's really massive. If we lose, it will most likely go (numbers are obviously just my random guesses): WC at home vs Chargers/Dolphins - 70% Div on road vs Bengals - 55% (I'd say we will be actually bigger favorites than now since it's hard to beat same team twice in a row) AFCCG on road vs Chiefs - 50% SB - 55% If we win: Bye Div at home vs Titans/Jags/Ravens - 75% AFCCG at home vs Chiefs - 55% SB - 55% So by my numbers we have less than 11% to win SB if we lose and almost 23% if we win. 538 has it even worse - 11% if we lose, 29% if we win - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/. That is brutal difference. All of it is simplified, since loss doesn't automatically means we are 3 seed, both Chiefs and Bengals might still lose another game (and we can also lose to Pats if we win). But it applies in general. This is really a huge game.

Bates? I think there is exactly 0.0% chance that we move on from Bates given his play/contract and I don't remember anyone on this board suggesting otherwise. Agree on other two. Saffold is imo gone unless he takes vet min. Morse might retire.

My totally uneducated guess: Guys who stay: Edmunds - gets paid, hopefully reasonable Singletary - stays on reasonable deal Jackson - whatever tender he qualifies for, unless its little too much, I am lost in this one of Phillips/Lawson who is ready to take small dea again, probably Lawson Boettger - vet min again Martin - solid punter, let's keep him for vet min if possible Gone: Poyer - can't pay him Saffold - unless stays for vet min Hines - no chance he is kept for $5/y and there are no dead money possibly Morse, if he decides to retire From others less relevant we keep some and let some go (shocker, I know). My wild guess/hope: Davis gets traded for an early 3rd. I like Davis much more than TBD average and I do think he is solid WR2 but he will not get 2nd contract here so I'd trade him now when the value is higher with 1 year left on his rookie deal. If we can get 2nd I'd do it immediately but a 3rd will do. I'd keep Oliver and let him play on 5th year option if he doesn't accept reasonable deal. If he somehow shows any sign of potential hold-out I'd trade him. I guess he fetches a 2nd so draft his replacement there. Draft: RD1 - WR/OT RD2 - WR/OT RD3 (Davis trade) - OG/WR RD3 - S or whatever is the biggest need/BPA in defense RD4 - OG/WR RD5, RD5, RD6 - LB, DL, WR, TE, whatever

They need to bench McDaniels, not Carr.

Patience my friend I will update this until he beats them all but it's Christmas now so I play with my family and this needs to wait Updated OP. 3 more to go.

Thanks. I never knew. I thought that it is always a sack once QB is tackled behind LOS. Apparently this is not true when he doesn't try to pass.

Totally random, but anybody has an idea how the hell wasn't Hamlin credited with a sack when he tackled Fields 2 yards in the backfield in the 2nd quarter with 4:41 to go (drive that ended by FG)?

What a brutal game. We win - most likely 1 seed, bye, Ravens/Jags at home while Bengals/Chiefs fight each other and then we get beaten up winner at home in AFCCG. We lose - no bye, most likely 3 seed, Chargers/Dolphins in WC, then road game in Cincy again, if we win AFCCG at Kansas again. Hard to imagine any regular season game having more PO implications. Good thing is that it is primetime, and we all know how primetime Josh usually looks like. And I think that everything what happened this season just made team mentally tough, we beat Bengals and get bye we deserve.

This is not true. Or it is, if you only care about one seed. But Bengals losing today would be great anyway. We could then lose to them and still be 2nd seed, which has quite a lot of value. If we lose to them next week and end up 3rd, we will likely have to go to both Cincy AND Kansas, which is the worst outcome possible.

@Draconator This deserves edited title. He's out for the season, and this was a rare instance when I missed it here and had to find out in outside world I think it's quite a big news and it helps Jags a lot. They are probably now favorites to win that division.

and/or that Bates and Morse are unfortunately not.

No idea, but its incredibly stupid and annoying. But it feels weird to complain when your own fanbase jumps drunk over folding tables...

Disagree. He was likely out but it wasn't conclusive.

Bengals scoring drives - 13, 13, 31, 39 and 47 yards.

Did you really just quote yourself? Also, there is no such thing as karma.

Wow monster sack negated by the penalty.

I meant I am still expecting them to win in the OT. But a miracle would be nice.

Haha. They still win but I am having fun.

This is what never ceases to fascinate me. I lurked finheaven and many posters there are confident that refs were helping us whole game to the point that it strongly affected the game. And you and many other Bills fan will say the direct opposite I have no opinion on this since I don't care about refs decisions unless they are blatantly wrong and I also have a bad short term memory, so I usually don't remember penalty calls at all (so I really don't know ATM which calls/missed calls is it about this time), I just find this phenomenon interesting

This needs to be highlighted. We often get a feeling that we are very unlucky when it comes to recovering fumbles but this one went our way and was extremely crucial. Brown saved the game right there.

There was absolutely no point in it, since Dolphins didn't have any more TOs. Unless I am missing something.

Great win. The only problem was that I expected a blowout and Dolphins played good. But that's my problem. Great team win.