No_Matter_What

This is spot on. Just to provide some data - I like to read mock draft on one Commanders forum, they do 7 rounds every year and seem pretty knowledgable to me (well, Bills GM made some odd choices this year but that is small sample size). https://es.redskins.com/topic/446775-2024-es-gms-mock-draft/ Below is comparison how WRs were taken in both drafts: Marvin Harrison 4 / 5 / +1 Rome Odunze 6 / 10 / +4 Malik Nabers 7 / 9 / + 2 Brian Thomes 12 / 26 / +14 Adonai Mitchell 28 / 32 / +4 Troy Franklin 30 / 46 / +16 Xavier Worthy 33 / 47 / +14 Xavier Legette 35 / 33 / - 2 Ladd McConkey 36 / 36 / 0 Keon Coleman 43 / 49 / +6 Ricky Pearsall 46 / 54 / +8 Roman Wilson 48 / 43 / -5 Malachi Corley 53/ 64 / +11 Jermaine Burton 54 / 72 / +18 Ja'Lynn Polk 58 / 70 / +12 So, with 4 more picks in 2nd round to go, in TBD mock draft 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round, 9 in the 2nd (15 total). At their forum, only 5 in the 1st round and 8 in the 2nd (13 total). Only Legette and Wilson were picked a little earlier, McConkey at the same spot, and 12 WRs were picked later, many of them A LOT later (Thomas, Worthy, Burton, Polk). On average, first 15 WRs went 7 spots later than in TBD draft. I know it is just one alternative mock draft but I am pretty sure Bills fans have strong bias towards WRs. EDIT: If draft went their way, Nabers/Odunze would be easier to trade up for, if not Thomas would be basically a Bill, and it would also be much more realistic to trade up for our guy in 2nd round. I really hope/think some of this will be the case in real draft.

Well Stef, I get your point, you want to win more than anybody else, so why exactly you basically disappeared in all of our last 3 playoff exits?

Do you think he could/would/should be a starter in 2024? Over who? I think it is really an interesting team building question if you think he wouldn't start in 24. Then it is either slightly better CB who sits in 24 and can possibly start 25-27 or a DT who could play ~40% snaps in 24 and maybe 50-65% in 25-27. I am not sure I have an answer in this case.

Slovakia.

I am not able to re-watch our PO losses, and I don't have good memory, so I forgot about this. Man it is painful to watch 😢

I am really puzzled by number of fans who are willing to sell the farm for massive trade up. I for one want to stay put and take the best WR available (or BPA if he is clearly graded above best WR), or maybe make a small trade up for Thomas if he falls, but other than that - stay where you are and get a good player there. Price for top 10 pick is too steep for us. I also want to keep next years pick we just got from Texans. The more players you draft the higher chance that you actually hit.

Hmm but it is not the literal pick we landed, is it? I thought we got 2nd rounder in 2025 unfortunately.

Do we know all the details now? Compensation and 2024/2025 cap hits?

Wow the compensation seems brutal. Anyway, like I said, he was always tradeable this year. I just thought it would be for 1st this year so we can draft his replacement. This seems crazy.

16 picks in and only 3 defensive players. I am going to look back and try to find out if anything remotely close happened in recent years. Edit: Actually it did. 3 years ago, only 4 defensive players were selected in top 16 - Horn, Surtain, Parsons and Collins.

Sportrac has everybody in now. DeShawn Williams vet min with only $15k guaranteed (great), Clapp also close to vet min with $287k dead cap if cut and Austin Johnson $2.3M cap hit with $1.2M in void years. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ Sportrac says we have $8.5M cap space, Overthecap has us at $7.5M. Which is interesting, since it seems like a free money now. After 1 June, we will have $10M more, which is just enough for rookies (~$2M), 52nd and 53rd player (less than $2M), PS players ($4M) and some in season injury moves ($2-3M). So whatever we have now seems like money we can freely use. I wonder if Beane planned to sign somebody more expensive and it didn't work out. It also shows why Beane didn't convert everything he could from Allen's contract this year - he didn't need to.

We could do this, and then move up from 44. 4th comp gets you to 40, add one of our late 5th and we could go back to 37 or so. If we could get Legette this way at 37 and add pick 77 I would be more than happy. But it is very risky so I'd probably rather stay put and pick our WR at 28.

I just hope that Williams has close to zero guaranteed money (like Toohill, unlike Morrow), so he can be easily cut when we keep 5-6th round rookie.

Contract details are on Sportrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/ Extension saved about $4M cap space this year, next year's cap hit only $8M.

Appreciate effort put into this mock. Also would be very pleased with the outcome for the Bills. One question though - why would Vikings do this trade? Bears are not taking 2nd QB and Jets won't draft one this year. Do you think someone could jump them for McCarthy?

I am really confused what position this guy plays. In OP Schefter says he's a DE, you say he is a run stuffing DT. So what is he in our scheme? Oliver backup or Jones backup?

Kirby, could you please elaborate on this? Because right now, I see more than enough space for 10 rookies. By my count there are 42 NFL players on our roster, who were there last year or who we signed this year and we can reasonably predict they end up on 53. This group includes Justin Shorter, Mack Hollins, Kingsley Jonathan, Nicholas Morrow and Damar Hamlin, and I really don't think these are locks to make the roster (and I think we could even include in this group guys like Quintin Morris and maybe Ty Johnson depending on his contract). So right now, there are at least 11 spots totally open right now, possibly up to 16-17. Then there is group of players like Eli Ankou, Tommy Doyle, K.J. Hamler or Andy Isabella who are fringe NFL players, but I really don't think these guys prevent us from keeping any promising 6th round draft pick. I think this is actually a great year to draft 10 rookies and hope that we hit on 8+ enough that they are worth a roster spot. There is enough room. I really hope that Beane resists temptation to fill roster spots with washed vets before the draft and give them some guaranteed money, so they will be harder to cut and will block roster spots for some young talent. Add a starting safety and then wait for the draft (or don't give any guaranteed money at least).

Slightly OT, but if anyone here played football - if you are running at full speed, do you have time to notice who is the defender? I've only played basketball and I always knew who is who, but I guess it is slightly different in football...

We need WR2 who becomes WR1 very quickly, not WR4. 😉

Lol at this price I'd take him for the Bills as Josh's backup.

Sportrac is updated and has the same numbers right now. It includes Knox's cap hit lowered from $14.3M to $7.7M, and also (surprisingly) Douglas' cap hit lowered to $3.3M - it seems that they agreed to different restructure than reported before, now he has more dead cap in void years too. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ It obviously doesn't include Morrow, Hollins, Jones, Samuel and Johnson. My guess is that they will combine for ~$15M minus $4M they will replace. So if everything is correct, we should have about $6M cap space right now. However, Sportrac has something obviously wrong imo, since it shows current contracts as total of $218M but if you count them its only $215M.

It's on Spotrac now. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dawson-knox-29132/ His cap hit is lower both this year and next, but dead cap after this season went from $7,8M to $17M.

I did. If Jerry (or anyone else) is willing to give us first round pick we just draft his replacement and it will cost us $6M more this year and will bring brutal ($20M+) cap savings next year. Again, I am not saying someone is actually offering 1st round pick or that rookie will be as good as Diggs but doing this is definitely an option.

Why almost everybody keeps saying he is not tradeable? I am not saying it is a good idea but we can definitely trade him. He has cap hit of $27,854,000, if we trade him by tomorrow he'll have dead cap of $31,096,000. That's like $3M more. If we somehow trade him for let's say Cowboys pick no. 24, we can draft new WR with cap hit $3M and voila - we have new WR for $6M higher cap hit this year and like $25M lower cap next year. So again, why it is so impossible to trade him? Now if you say that it will make us weaker because Thomas is not Diggs then fine, but it is a different conversation. To be clear, I am not saying (i) we should trade him, (ii) we wants out of (iii) we can get round 1 pick for him, I just say that Bills can easily trade him. Especially if someone is ready to give us R1 pick. In fact, if Jerry wants to do that, and there are any indications that we wants out, I'd seriously consider that. Draft Thomas and one of Legette/Mitchell and start a new era. If we draft two, the chances that one of them will pan out as WR1 are considerably higher. And we would have much better situation cap wise going forward.

Dion Dawkins extension details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dion-dawkins-21805/ Saves about §6M this year. Cap hits: 2024 - $11.5M 2025 - $20M 2026 - $23M 2027 - $23M + 2 void years with total dead cap of $4.6M